Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. stock €4.46, price €6.64, that is 32.8% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €5.01 – €12.88 · fair‑value band €2.62 – €6.74 · the €6.64 price screens above the €4.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Davide Campari-Milano N.V., together with its subsidiaries, trades in alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.
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It offers a range of products, including aperitifs, vodka, whisky, rum, agave, cognac, and champagne under the Aperol, Campari, Picon, Cynar, Sarti Rosa, Campari Soda, Crodino, Aperol Spritz RTE, Wild Turkey, Appleton Estate, Wray and Nephew, The GlenGrant, Wilderness Trail, Espolòn, Ancho Reyes, Montelobos, Grand Marnier, Courvoisier, Bisquit, Champagne Lallier, SKYY Vodka, Bulldog Gin, Averna, Braulio, Forty Creek, Frangelico, Cabo Wabo, Del Professore, Mondoro, Riccadonna, La Mauny, Trois Rivieres, Kingston 62, O'ndina, Bickens, Dreher, Ouzo 12, Sagabita, and Zedda Piras brand names.
Davide Campari-Milano N.V. was founded in 1860 and is headquartered in Sesto San Giovanni, Italy. Davide Campari-Milano N.V. operates as a subsidiary of Lagfin S.C.A.
Stock analysis
Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR) currently trades at €6.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.46, 33% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €5.32 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the €6.64 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €0.9000, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €2.62 (bear) to €6.74 (bull), the price of €6.64 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Davide Campari-Milano N.V. reported revenue of €3.1B in FY2025 versus €2.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was €346M in FY2025, compounding +5.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €8.0B Mid · P/E ratio 44.3 · P/S ratio 5.02 · EPS (TTM) €0.1500 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 11.4% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −33%, CPR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€2.62Fair Value €4.46Bull€6.74
Price €6.64 · Downside -32.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0429 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.3% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.1% vs 7.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 20%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.2% a year for the price and +1.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (78 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Campari's main strength is sustained organic growth in core aperitifs after trimming non-core brands, while its main weakness remains elevated leverage with only moderate margins and limited public signals on operations or governance.
Main risk: Rivals such as Bacardi with its St-Germain elderflower liqueur and the rising Hugo Spritz trend could draw consumers away from Campari’s Aperol in the spritz category, pressuring volumes and margins in its core aperitif business.
Bull case: Campari could defend its aperitif occasion by expanding keg formats, retailer loyalty programmes and new variants such as Sarti Rosa while shifting more consumers into its priority brands and ready-to-drink innovations.
Bear case: If copycat spritzes and rival liqueurs continue to capture menu space and consumer occasions, Campari’s organic growth in aperitifs could slow materially as cheaper or alternative offerings erode its market position.
Campari keeps delivering organic growth in aperitifs while trimming non-core brands to sharpen its focus. Prosecutors have now asked for the indictment of chairman Luca Garavoglia on alleged tax evasion linked to the 2018 merger, even though the tax side was settled earlier. Will the push into priority brands and innovation sustain momentum, or will these ownership-level legal questions create lasting headwinds?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 90 stocks
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Is Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.46 versus a price of €6.64, about 33% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CPR?
Our model-based fair value for Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is €4.46 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €6.64.
What is the quality score of CPR?
Davide Campari-Milano N.V. has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €4.46 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.62, optimistic scenario €6.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Davide Campari-Milano N.V. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €4.46, about 33% lower versus a price of €6.64 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.62, optimistic scenario €6.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
Davide Campari-Milano N.V. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Davide Campari-Milano N.V. pay a dividend?
Davide Campari-Milano N.V. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.51% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Davide Campari-Milano N.V. pays a dividend of €0.1 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 20, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2002. The payout ratio is 66.7% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.24 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Davide Campari-Milano N.V. would have to grow free cash flow by +15.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CPR use?
Our models discount Davide Campari-Milano N.V. at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Davide Campari-Milano N.V. that is +15.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Davide Campari-Milano N.V. grew +11.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +15.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (+15.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.88 %: that much free cash flow Davide Campari-Milano N.V. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Davide Campari-Milano N.V. it is €4.46 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of €6.64. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Davide Campari-Milano N.V. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, CPR trades above its calculated fair value: price €6.64, fair value €4.46, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CPR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€6.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.46). For Davide Campari-Milano N.V. the two are €2.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Davide Campari-Milano N.V. worth?
The market values Davide Campari-Milano N.V. at about €8.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is €6.64; our models calculate a fair value of €4.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CPR?
Our models span a range for Davide Campari-Milano N.V.: cautious scenario €2.62, base €4.46, optimistic €6.74 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price €6.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CPR?
Davide Campari-Milano N.V. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.3 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €4.46 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 32.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 2.3, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 16.2.
What is the PEG ratio of CPR?
The PEG ratio of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is 1.64 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 6.7%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CPR from its 52-week high?
Davide Campari-Milano N.V. trades at €6.64, about 2% below its 52-week high of €6.75 and 26% above the low of €5.28 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Davide Campari-Milano N.V.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Davide Campari-Milano N.V. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price €6.64, calculated fair value €4.46 (−33%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CPR calculated?
We run Davide Campari-Milano N.V. through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €4.46 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Davide Campari-Milano N.V. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €6.64. Our model-based fair value is €4.46, about 33% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Davide Campari-Milano N.V. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€2.62 to €6.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR) come from?
Earnings per share at Davide Campari-Milano N.V. grew +7.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.7 %, EBIT margin −0.6 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Davide Campari-Milano N.V.
How large is the market capitalisation of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
The market capitalisation of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is €8.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is 5.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
Earnings per share at Davide Campari-Milano N.V. are €0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
The dividend yield of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is 1.5% (payout 66.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
The net margin of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is 11.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
The operating margin of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
Revenue at Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is growing −1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR)?
Earnings per share at Davide Campari-Milano N.V. are growing −36.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR) carry?
The net debt of Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is €1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026