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Cosan SA (CSAN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Cosan SA $4.70, price $2.94, upside +60.0%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Energy · US · ADR · ISIN US22113B1035

CS Cosan SA logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Cosan SA

CSAN · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $4.70 · Strongly undervalued (+60%)
!Quality 39/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +24.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -23.9% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/12)
!Narrow moat 33/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $1.81 to $7.57
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$18.42 $2.40 Fair Value $4.70 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.40 – $18.42 · fair‑value band $1.81 – $7.57 · the $2.94 price screens below the $4.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Cosan S.A. engages in the fuel distribution business. It operates through Raízen, Compass, Moove, Rumo, and Radar segments.

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Cosan S.A. engages in the fuel distribution business. It operates through Raízen, Compass, Moove, Rumo, and Radar segments. The company's Raízen segment engages in the production, marketing, origination, and trading of sugar, as well as ethanol; production and marketing of bioenergy, and solar energy and biogas; trading and resale of electricity; and trading and marketing of fossil, renewable fuels, and lubricants under the Shell brand. Its Compass segment distributes piped natural gas to industrial, residential, commercial, automotive, and cogeneration customers; and marketing of natural gas. The company's Moove segment produces, formulates, and distributes lubricants, base oils, and specialties under the Mobil brand and various proprietary brands for industrial, commercial, and passenger vehicles. Its Rumo segment provides logistics services for rail transportation, storage, and port loading of commodities, including grains and sugar; locomotive and railcar leasing; and rail equipment and container operations. The company's Radar segment manages agricultural property. The company operates in Brazil, England, France, Spain, Portugal, Argentina, Bolivia, Uruguay, Paraguay, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, Oceania, the United States, Latin America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Cosan S.A. was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

Stock analysis

Cosan SA ADR (CSAN) currently trades at $2.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.70, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $3.64 per share, and 2 of the 14 models we run sit above the $2.94 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.43, and 12 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $1.81 (bear) to $7.57 (bull), the price of $2.94 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Cosan SA ADR reported revenue of R$40.4B in FY2025 versus R$26.1B in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was −R$9.7B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $3.7B · P/S ratio 0.07 · EPS (TTM) $−2.64 · Net margin −24.1% · Return on equity −29.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6% · Operating margin 30.7% · Revenue (TTM) $39.8B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at 60%, CSAN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.81 Fair Value $4.70 Bull $7.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $1.58 $4.00 $8.29 74
EPV $1.13 $1.49 $1.81 74
Growth DCF $1.52 $3.64 $7.19 73
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $1.58 $4.00 $8.29 74
5Y Revenue Exit $0.5298 $1.66 $3.19 67
5Y EBITDA Exit $1.05 $2.78 $4.98 71
10Y Revenue Exit $0.8195 $2.03 $3.89 62
10Y EBITDA Exit $1.20 $2.85 $5.41 64
Earnings-Based
EPV $1.13 $1.49 $1.81 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.8319 $1.66 $2.51 67
DDM Multi-Stage $0.8319 $1.43 $1.75 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT $1.31 $2.15 $2.98 64
EV/EBITDA $0.9422 $1.65 $2.36 65
EV/Revenue $0.0318 $0.5539 $1.08 46
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.0951 $0.1273 $0.1903 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $1.52 $3.64 $7.19 73
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $1.47 $2.43 $3.71 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 30
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 15
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 58
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.9% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.1% (2003) → 21.1% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+72.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +68.8% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 109 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −24% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 31% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 27% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 11.37× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.69× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.09× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 49.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 2.6× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 15
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 52

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cosan SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CSAN

Frequently asked questions

Is Cosan SA (CSAN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.70 versus a price of $2.94, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CSAN?
Our model-based fair value for Cosan SA ADR is $4.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.94.
What is the quality score of CSAN?
Cosan SA ADR has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cosan SA (CSAN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.81, optimistic scenario $7.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cosan SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.70, about +60% upside versus a price of $2.94 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.81, optimistic scenario $7.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cosan SA (CSAN)?
Cosan SA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $39.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cosan SA (CSAN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cosan SA ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +72.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CSAN use?
Our models discount Cosan SA ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cosan SA ADR that is +72.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cosan SA (CSAN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cosan SA ADR grew +24.5 % a year. The price currently implies +72.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cosan SA (CSAN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cosan SA ADR (+72.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cosan SA (CSAN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.01 %: that much free cash flow Cosan SA ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cosan SA (CSAN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cosan SA ADR it is $4.70 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.94. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cosan SA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CSAN trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.94, fair value $4.70, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CSAN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.70). For Cosan SA ADR the two are $1.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cosan SA ADR worth?
The market values Cosan SA ADR at about $3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.94; our models calculate a fair value of $4.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CSAN?
Our models span a range for Cosan SA ADR: cautious scenario $1.81, base $4.70, optimistic $7.57 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cosan SA (CSAN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cosan SA ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −29.9%, debt of 11.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CSAN from its 52-week high?
Cosan SA ADR trades at $2.94, about 51% below its 52-week high of $6.01 and 16% above the low of $2.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cosan SA ADR?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cosan SA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.94, calculated fair value $4.70 (+60%), Quality Score 39/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CSAN calculated?
We run Cosan SA ADR through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Cosan SA ADR currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cosan SA (CSAN)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $2.94. Our model-based fair value is $4.70, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cosan SA ADR right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($1.81 to $7.57). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Cosan SA ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of Cosan SA (CSAN)?
The market capitalisation of Cosan SA ADR is $3.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cosan SA (CSAN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cosan SA ADR is 0.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cosan SA (CSAN)?
Earnings per share at Cosan SA ADR are $−2.64. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cosan SA (CSAN)?
The net margin of Cosan SA ADR is −24.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cosan SA (CSAN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cosan SA ADR is −29.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cosan SA (CSAN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cosan SA ADR is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cosan SA (CSAN)?
The operating margin of Cosan SA ADR is 30.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cosan SA (CSAN)?
Revenue at Cosan SA ADR is growing +26.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cosan SA (CSAN)?
Earnings per share at Cosan SA ADR are growing −56.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cosan SA (CSAN) carry?
The net debt of Cosan SA ADR is $43.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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