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Cosan S.A (CSAN3) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Cosan S.A BRL 6.93, price BRL 3.82, upside +81.4%, quality 27 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Energy · BR · ISIN BRCSANACNOR6

CS Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Cosan S.A

CSAN3 · SA

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value R$6.93 · Strongly undervalued (+81.4%)
!Quality 27/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +24.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -23.9% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range R$3.36 to R$12.92
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$24.62 R$3.13 Fair Value R$6.93 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$3.13 – R$24.62 · fair‑value band R$3.36 – R$12.92 · the R$3.82 price screens below the R$6.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Cosan S.A. engages in the fuel distribution business. It operates through Raízen, Compass, Moove, Rumo, and Radar segments.

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Cosan S.A. engages in the fuel distribution business. It operates through Raízen, Compass, Moove, Rumo, and Radar segments. The company's Raízen segment engages in the production, marketing, origination, and trading of sugar, as well as ethanol; production and marketing of bioenergy, and solar energy and biogas; trading and resale of electricity; and trading and marketing of fossil, renewable fuels, and lubricants under the Shell brand. Its Compass segment distributes piped natural gas to industrial, residential, commercial, automotive, and cogeneration customers; and marketing of natural gas. The company's Moove segment produces, formulates, and distributes lubricants, base oils, and specialties under the Mobil brand and various proprietary brands for industrial, commercial, and passenger vehicles. Its Rumo segment provides logistics services for rail transportation, storage, and port loading of commodities, including grains and sugar; locomotive and railcar leasing; and rail equipment and container operations. The company's Radar segment manages agricultural property. The company operates in Brazil, England, France, Spain, Portugal, Argentina, Bolivia, Uruguay, Paraguay, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, Oceania, the United States, Latin America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Cosan S.A. was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

Stock analysis

Cosan S.A (CSAN3) currently trades at R$3.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$6.93, implying the stock looks roughly 44.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of R$15.93 per share, and 11 of the 14 models we run sit above the R$3.82 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$0.9000, and 3 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: R$3.36 (bear) to R$12.92 (bull), the price of R$3.82 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Cosan S.A reported revenue of R$40.4B in FY2025 versus R$24.9B in FY2021, a compound +12.9%/yr. Reported net income was −R$9.7B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap R$15.3B (≈ $3.0B) · P/S ratio 0.39 · EPS (TTM) R$−3.34 · Net margin −24.1% · Return on equity −29.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% · Operating margin 30.7% · Revenue (TTM) R$39.8B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −64% fair-value upside, at 81%, CSAN3 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$3.36 Fair Value R$6.93 Bull R$12.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF n/a R$2.50 >R$10.00 77
Growth DCF n/a R$2.64 R$10.49 75
EPV R$6.56 R$8.92 R$10.96 74
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF n/a R$2.50 >R$10.00 77
5Y Revenue Exit n/a R$6.87 R$17.52 69
5Y EBITDA Exit R$2.71 R$14.06 R$29.14 68
10Y Revenue Exit n/a R$5.32 R$16.99 64
10Y EBITDA Exit R$0.9100 R$10.65 R$27.05 59
Earnings-Based
EPV R$6.56 R$8.92 R$10.96 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$6.00 R$11.95 R$18.09 67
DDM Multi-Stage R$6.00 R$10.33 R$12.61 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT R$8.14 R$13.64 R$19.15 64
EV/EBITDA R$5.97 R$10.76 R$15.54 65
EV/Revenue R$0.2400 R$3.93 R$7.61 46
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$0.6700 R$0.9000 R$1.34 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF n/a R$2.64 R$10.49 75
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder R$8.97 R$15.93 R$25.65 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 27/100

Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 20
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.1% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
15.2% (2019) → 21.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 107 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +81.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 5.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −23.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 30.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 26.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 17.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 11.37× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.56× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.07× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 39.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 2.6× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 33.36× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 44
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 58

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

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Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL ₹308.50 ₹846.81 +174%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cosan S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CSAN3

Frequently asked questions

Is Cosan S.A (CSAN3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$6.93 versus a price of R$3.82, about +81% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CSAN3?
Our model-based fair value for Cosan S.A is R$6.93 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$3.82.
What is the quality score of CSAN3?
Cosan S.A has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cosan S.A (CSAN3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$6.93 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$3.36, optimistic scenario R$12.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cosan S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$6.93, about +81% upside versus a price of R$3.82 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$3.36, optimistic scenario R$12.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cosan S.A (CSAN3)?
Cosan S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$39.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cosan S.A (CSAN3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cosan S.A would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CSAN3 use?
Our models discount Cosan S.A at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cosan S.A that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cosan S.A (CSAN3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cosan S.A grew +24.5 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cosan S.A (CSAN3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cosan S.A (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cosan S.A (CSAN3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.79 %: that much free cash flow Cosan S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cosan S.A (CSAN3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cosan S.A it is R$6.93 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$3.82. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cosan S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CSAN3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$3.82, fair value R$6.93, a gap of about +81% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CSAN3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$3.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$6.93). For Cosan S.A the two are R$3.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cosan S.A worth?
The market values Cosan S.A at about R$15.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$3.82; our models calculate a fair value of R$6.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CSAN3?
Our models span a range for Cosan S.A: cautious scenario R$3.36, base R$6.93, optimistic R$12.92 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$3.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CSAN3?
The PEG ratio of Cosan S.A is 33.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cosan S.A (CSAN3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cosan S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −29.9%, debt of 11.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CSAN3 from its 52-week high?
Cosan S.A trades at R$3.82, about 44% below its 52-week high of R$6.80 and 22% above the low of R$3.13 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$6.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cosan S.A?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cosan S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$3.82, calculated fair value R$6.93 (+81%), Quality Score 27/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CSAN3 calculated?
We run Cosan S.A through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$6.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Cosan S.A currently trades 81 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cosan S.A (CSAN3)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was R$3.82. Our model-based fair value is R$6.93, about +81% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cosan S.A right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (27/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (R$3.36 to R$12.92). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Cosan S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of Cosan S.A (CSAN3)?
The market capitalisation of Cosan S.A is R$15.3B (≈ $3.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cosan S.A (CSAN3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cosan S.A is 0.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cosan S.A (CSAN3)?
Earnings per share at Cosan S.A are R$−3.34. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cosan S.A (CSAN3)?
The net margin of Cosan S.A is −24.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cosan S.A (CSAN3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cosan S.A is −29.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cosan S.A (CSAN3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cosan S.A is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cosan S.A (CSAN3)?
The operating margin of Cosan S.A is 30.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cosan S.A (CSAN3)?
Revenue at Cosan S.A is growing +26.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cosan S.A (CSAN3)?
Earnings per share at Cosan S.A are growing −56.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cosan S.A (CSAN3) carry?
The net debt of Cosan S.A is R$43.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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