Cosan S.A (CSAN3) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · BR · Market cap R$15.3B

Below-average quality, screening 112% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (27/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The model range is unusually wide (R$2.86 to R$22.92). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$3.27 – R$24.62 · fair‑value band R$2.86 – R$22.92 · the R$3.67 price screens below the R$7.78 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Cosan S.A (CSAN3) currently trades at R$3.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$7.78, implying the stock looks roughly 111.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Cosan S.A generated revenue of R$39.8B at a net margin of -23.9%. Revenue grew 26.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -29.9%. Net debt stands at R$43.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R$2.86 (bear case) to R$22.92 (bull case); at R$3.67, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at 112%, CSAN3 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Economic Profit (R$18.05) versus Asset-Based (R$0.9000). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Cosan S.A. engages in the fuel distribution business. It operates through Raízen, Compass, Moove, Rumo, and Radar segments.

Full company description

Cosan S.A. engages in the fuel distribution business. It operates through Raízen, Compass, Moove, Rumo, and Radar segments. The company's Raízen segment engages in the production, marketing, origination, and trading of sugar, as well as ethanol; production and marketing of bioenergy, and solar energy and biogas; trading and resale of electricity; and trading and marketing of fossil, renewable fuels, and lubricants under the Shell brand. Its Compass segment distributes piped natural gas to industrial, residential, commercial, automotive, and cogeneration customers; and marketing of natural gas. The company's Moove segment produces, formulates, and distributes lubricants, base oils, and specialties under the Mobil brand and various proprietary brands for industrial, commercial, and passenger vehicles. Its Rumo segment provides logistics services for rail transportation, storage, and port loading of commodities, including grains and sugar; locomotive and railcar leasing; and rail equipment and container operations. The company's Radar segment manages agricultural property. The company operates in Brazil, England, France, Spain, Portugal, Argentina, Bolivia, Uruguay, Paraguay, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, Oceania, the United States, Latin America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Cosan S.A. was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Cosan S.A reported revenue of R$40.4B in FY2025 versus R$24.9B in FY2021, a compound +12.9%/yr. Reported net income was −R$9.7B in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 114 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.