PT Cipta Selera Murni Tbk (CSMI) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · ID · Market cap 62.8B IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from 20.53 IDR to 10.43 IDR (−49.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +3.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 87% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (13.00 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 59.00 IDR – 4,580 IDR · fair‑value band 7.87 IDR – 13.00 IDR · the 80.00 IDR price screens above the 10.43 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
PT Cipta Selera Murni Tbk (CSMI) currently trades at 80.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 10.43 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 87.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Cipta Selera Murni Tbk generated revenue of 2.0B IDR at a net margin of -46.3%. Revenue grew 52.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -20.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 140M IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 7.87 IDR (bear case) to 13.00 IDR (bull case); at 80.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -87%, CSMI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (10.43 IDR) versus Asset-Based (3.44 IDR). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Cipta Selera Murni Tbk engages in the fast-food restaurant business in Indonesia. The company serves its restaurant under TEXAS CHICKEN brand name. It is also involved in trading activities. PT Cipta Selera Murni Tbk was founded in 1983 and is based in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Cipta Selera Murni Tbk reported revenue of 1.8B IDR in FY2025 versus 61.5B IDR in FY2021, a compound −58.5%/yr. Reported net income was −955M IDR in FY2025.
CSMI screens 87% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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