CTC.TO (CTC) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CA · Market cap C$11.1B (≈ $8.0B) · ISIN CA1366812024
What is CTC.TO really worth?
A solid business, but trading 26% above our fair value of C$166.05.
As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of CTC.TO is C$166.05 per share against a price of C$210.00, so the fair value sits 21% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated today
Share price −7.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (C$94.90 to C$291.41). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$144.99 – C$380.75 · fair‑value band C$94.90 – C$291.41 · the C$210.00 price screens above the C$166.05 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
Analysis
CTC.TO (CTC) currently trades at C$210.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$166.05, implying the stock looks roughly 26.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of C$233.69 per share, and 8 of the 25 models we run sit above the C$210.00 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at C$50.52, and 17 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, CTC.TO generated revenue of C$16.4B at a net margin of 3.6%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.8%. Net debt stands at C$9.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$94.90 (bear case) to C$291.41 (bull case); at C$210.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −21%, CTC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly C$3.38 per share, which is 2.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (C$233.69) versus Growth DCF (C$50.52). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited provides a range of retail goods and services in Canada. It operates through three segments: Retail, CT REIT, and Financial Services.
Full company description
Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited provides a range of retail goods and services in Canada. It operates through three segments: Retail, CT REIT, and Financial Services. The Retail segment retails automotive maintenance products and accessories, parts, and tires, as well as automotive services comprising oil changes, tire installations, and repairs; roadside assistance; electrical, hardware, paint, plumbing, and tool products; cleaning, food and drink, home décor, home essentials, home organization, home environment, kitchen, and pet care products; camping, exercise, hockey, hunting, fishing, seasonal recreation, and team sports and golf products; and backyard living, backyard fun, cycling, gardening, outdoor tools, seasonal, and toy products. This segment offers its products under the Canadian Tire, Canadian Tire Gas+, Pro Hockey Life, Mark's, PartSource, Helly Hansen, Party City, and SportChek brand names. This segment also participates in loyalty programs, as well as sells its products through online. The CT REIT segment operates as a closed-end real estate investment trust that holds a portfolio of properties comprising Canadian Tire stores, Canadian Tire anchored retail developments, industrial properties, mixed-use commercial property, and development properties. The Financial Services segment provides consumer credit cards; in-store financing to consumers; insurance products, and retail and broker deposits; and savings accounts and guaranteed investment certificates. Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited was founded in 1922 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CTC.TO reported revenue of C$16.3B in FY2025 versus C$16.3B in FY2021, a compound +0.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$579M in FY2025, compounding −15.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.4 % · buybacks/dilution +3.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CTC screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 218 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD | C$89.93 | C$104.32 | +16% |
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $755.47 | $398.90 | −47% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $235.09 | $162.63 | −31% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $537.10 | $475.40 | −11% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $139.15 | $233.87 | +68% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $82.44 | $108.04 | +31% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥54.97 | ¥40.40 | −27% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $34.72 | $35.52 | +2% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $259.41 | $117.29 | −55% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $574.12 | $423.35 | −26% |
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