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Contango ORE Inc (CTGO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Contango ORE Inc stock $16.97, price $15.55, upside +9.2%, quality 31 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials US

CO Contango ORE Inc logo Thin data Nov 9, 2026

Contango ORE Inc

CTGO · US
Fairly valued, weak quality

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Generates free cash flow
Positive coverage
Fair value $16.97 · Fairly valued
Moderate debt
Insiders bought $62,652 (6M) · sold $29,002
Quality 31/100
Trails peers (1/9)
Narrow moat 3/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$33.10 $9.00 Fair Value $16.97 Sep 2020 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $9.00 – $33.10 · fair‑value band $13.98 – $18.79 · the $15.55 price screens below the $16.97 fair value. As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Contango Silver & Gold Inc. engages in the exploration, development, and production of gold and associated minerals in Alaska and the Golden Triangle in British Columbia. It primarily focuses on exploring for gold and silver deposits.

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The company was formerly known as Contango Ore, Inc. and changed its name to Contango Silver & Gold Inc. in March 2026. Contango Silver & Gold Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Fairbanks, Alaska.

Stock analysis

Contango ORE Inc (CTGO) currently trades at $15.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.97, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.4%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $25.74 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the $15.55 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $14.88, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $13.98 (bear) to $18.79 (bull), the price of $15.55 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Contango ORE Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$36.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $503M Small · EPS (TTM) $−2.63 · Return on equity −23.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −13.9% (5-year average) · EPS growth (YoY) −88.7% · Free cash flow $25.6M · Net cash $31.0M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 3 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 9%, CTGO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $13.98 Fair Value $16.97 Bull $18.79
Price $15.55 · Upside +9.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV $17.46 $19.97 $22.11 74
FCF DCF $10.81 $15.12 $21.03 70
Growth DCF $11.00 $14.88 $19.92 69
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $10.81 $15.12 $21.03 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $13.23 $20.50 $28.77 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $12.18 $17.98 $25.34 59
Earnings-Based
EPV $17.46 $19.97 $22.11 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT $22.62 $29.85 $37.08 66
EV/EBITDA $16.45 $21.62 $26.80 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.3800 $0.5000 $0.7500 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $11.00 $14.88 $19.92 69
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $17.46 $19.97 $22.11 63

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 100
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 46
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 12
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 8
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $62,652, on Jun 25, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $29,002.

  • SaleDavid Gregory LarimerVP Exploration2× since Mar 19, 2026: 2,871 shares, avg. $18.02$51,738Aug 19, 2026
  • SaleMichael Aaron ClarkCFO3× since Jan 8, 2026: 21,461 shares, avg. $21.90$470,058Aug 19, 2026
  • BuyRick Van NieuwenhuysePresident & CEO, Director4,111 shares at $15.24$62,652Jun 25, 2026
  • BuyClynton R. NaumanDirector10,000 shares at $18.56$185,600Apr 1, 2026
  • SaleRick Van NieuwenhuysePresident & CEO, Director2× since Jan 8, 2026: 41,229 shares, avg. $21.76$897,256Mar 19, 2026

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.8% a year for the price.

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (50 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 205 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +9.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −21.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 0.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.19× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/B 20.04× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 19.7× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)46 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 44
HEALTH (low debt)41 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 24

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM $191.57 $220.07 +15% vs CTGO
Newmont Corporation NEM $120.91 $133.00 +10% vs CTGO
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $92.99 $88.58 −5% vs CTGO
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $265.81 $248.53 −7% vs CTGO
Shandong Gold Mining Co 600547 ¥26.20 ¥23.61 −10% vs CTGO
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $254.95 $212.28 −17% vs CTGO
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $22.24 $18.00 −19% vs CTGO
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$25.85 A$16.87 −35% vs CTGO
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM $136.31 $87.64 −36% vs CTGO
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥28.28 ¥15.62 −45% vs CTGO

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Contango ORE Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Contango ORE Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CTGO

Frequently asked questions

Is Contango ORE Inc (CTGO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.97 versus a price of $15.55, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CTGO?
Our model-based fair value for Contango ORE Inc is $16.97 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.55.
What is the quality score of CTGO?
Contango ORE Inc has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Contango ORE Inc (CTGO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.97 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.98, optimistic scenario $18.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Contango ORE Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.97, about +9% upside versus a price of $15.55 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $13.98, optimistic scenario $18.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Contango ORE Inc (CTGO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Contango ORE Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +8.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CTGO use?
Our models discount Contango ORE Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Contango ORE Inc that is +8.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How fast is the sector of Contango ORE Inc (CTGO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Contango ORE Inc (+8.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Contango ORE Inc (CTGO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.08 %: that much free cash flow Contango ORE Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Contango ORE Inc (CTGO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Contango ORE Inc it is $16.97 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $15.55. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Contango ORE Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, CTGO trades below its calculated fair value: price $15.55, fair value $16.97, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTGO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.97). For Contango ORE Inc the two are $1.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Contango ORE Inc worth?
The market values Contango ORE Inc at about $503M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $15.55; our models calculate a fair value of $16.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTGO?
Our models span a range for Contango ORE Inc: cautious scenario $13.98, base $16.97, optimistic $18.79 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $15.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Contango ORE Inc (CTGO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Contango ORE Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −23.7%, debt of 1.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTGO from its 52-week high?
Contango ORE Inc trades at $15.55, about 53% below its 52-week high of $33.10 and 14% above the low of $13.70 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Contango ORE Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Contango ORE Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $15.55, calculated fair value $16.97 (+9%), Quality Score 31/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTGO calculated?
We run Contango ORE Inc through 9 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $16.97 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Contango ORE Inc currently trades 8% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Contango ORE Inc (CTGO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $15.55. Our model-based fair value is $16.97, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Contango ORE Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Contango ORE Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Contango ORE Inc (CTGO)?
The market capitalisation of Contango ORE Inc is $503M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Contango ORE Inc (CTGO)?
Earnings per share at Contango ORE Inc are $−2.63. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Contango ORE Inc (CTGO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Contango ORE Inc is −23.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Contango ORE Inc (CTGO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Contango ORE Inc is −13.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast are earnings growing at Contango ORE Inc (CTGO)?
Earnings per share at Contango ORE Inc are growing −88.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Contango ORE Inc (CTGO) hold?
Contango ORE Inc holds more cash than debt, $31.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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