Centaurus Metals Limited (CTM) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$258M
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from A$0.2400 to A$0.0600 (−75.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +4.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 87% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0700). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.0300 to A$0.0700) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.2500 – A$1.53 · fair‑value band A$0.0300 – A$0.0700 · the A$0.4750 price screens above the A$0.0600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Centaurus Metals Limited (CTM) currently trades at A$0.4750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0600, implying the stock looks roughly 87.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$631K. Revenue declined 71.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -35.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$23.9M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0300 (bear case) to A$0.0700 (bull case); at A$0.4750, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -87%, CTM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$0.0600) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0500). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Centaurus Metals Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development mineral resource projects in Brazil. The company explores for copper, nickel, gold, and iron ore deposits.
Full company description
Centaurus Metals Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development mineral resource projects in Brazil. The company explores for copper, nickel, gold, and iron ore deposits. Its flagship project is the Jaguar nickel sulphide project covering an area of approximately 30 square kilometers of tenement package located in the Carajás Mineral Province, northern Brazil. The company was formerly known as Glengarry Resources Limited and changed its name to Centaurus Metals Limited in April 2010. Centaurus Metals Limited was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Centaurus Metals Limited reported revenue of A$0 in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −A$14.3M in FY2025.
CTM screens 87% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 475 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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