Catena Media plc (CTM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Catena Media plc SEK 8.85, price SEK 2.95, upside +200.0%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 1.58 – kr 72.50 · fair‑value band kr 7.29 – kr 10.81 · the kr 2.95 price screens below the kr 8.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Catena Media plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides marketing services for operators of online sports betting and casino platforms in North America and Latin America. The company operates in two segments: Casino and Sports.
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Catena Media plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides marketing services for operators of online sports betting and casino platforms in North America and Latin America. The company operates in two segments: Casino and Sports. The Casino segment provides content, insights, and offers that connect people interested in slots, poker, blackjack, and other casino games with its partner online casino operators. The Sports segment publishes targeted content on sports players, teams, and fixtures to inform sports, fantasy sports, and esports betting fans and help them compare the right offers from online sports betting operators. Catena Media plc was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Gzira, Malta.
Stock analysis
Catena Media plc (CTM) currently trades at kr 2.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 8.85, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of kr 1.22 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the kr 2.95 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 0.9500, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 7.29 (bear) to kr 10.81 (bull), the price of kr 2.95 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Catena Media plc reported revenue of €46.6M in FY2025 versus €136M in FY2021, a compound −23.5%/yr. Reported net income was −€11.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 227M SEK (≈ $22.9M) · P/S ratio 4.36 · EPS (TTM) kr −0.7800 · Net margin −24.8% · Return on equity −4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.2% · Operating margin 99.9% · Revenue (TTM) €49.1M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 200%, CTM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 7.29Fair Value kr 8.85Bull kr 10.81
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.0% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
24.2% (2020) → −19.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−35.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −36.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 150 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Above median
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−11% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)100% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Catena Media plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CTM
Frequently asked questions
Is Catena Media plc (CTM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 8.85 versus a price of kr 2.95, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CTM?
Our model-based fair value for Catena Media plc is kr 8.85 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 2.95.
What is the quality score of CTM?
Catena Media plc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Catena Media plc (CTM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 8.85 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 7.29, optimistic scenario kr 10.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Catena Media plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 8.85, about +200% upside versus a price of kr 2.95 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 7.29, optimistic scenario kr 10.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Catena Media plc (CTM)?
Catena Media plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €49.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Catena Media plc (CTM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Catena Media plc would have to grow free cash flow by -35.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -15.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CTM use?
Our models discount Catena Media plc at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.31, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Catena Media plc that is -35.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Catena Media plc (CTM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Catena Media plc grew -15.2 % a year. The price currently implies -35.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Catena Media plc (CTM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Catena Media plc (-35.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Catena Media plc (CTM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 31.25 %: that much free cash flow Catena Media plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Catena Media plc (CTM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Catena Media plc it is kr 8.85 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 2.95. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Catena Media plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CTM trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 2.95, fair value kr 8.85, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 2.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 8.85). For Catena Media plc the two are kr 5.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Catena Media plc worth?
The market values Catena Media plc at about 227M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 2.95; our models calculate a fair value of kr 8.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTM?
Our models span a range for Catena Media plc: cautious scenario kr 7.29, base kr 8.85, optimistic kr 10.81 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 2.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Catena Media plc (CTM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Catena Media plc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −4.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTM from its 52-week high?
Catena Media plc trades at kr 2.95, about 33% below its 52-week high of kr 4.40 and 87% above the low of kr 1.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 8.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Catena Media plc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Catena Media plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 2.95, calculated fair value kr 8.85 (+200%), Quality Score 67/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTM calculated?
We run Catena Media plc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 8.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Catena Media plc currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Catena Media plc (CTM)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 2.95. Our model-based fair value is kr 8.85, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Catena Media plc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 7.29). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Catena Media plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Catena Media plc (CTM)?
The market capitalisation of Catena Media plc is 227M SEK (≈ $22.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Catena Media plc (CTM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Catena Media plc is 4.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Catena Media plc (CTM)?
Earnings per share at Catena Media plc are kr −0.7800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Catena Media plc (CTM)?
The net margin of Catena Media plc is −24.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Catena Media plc (CTM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Catena Media plc is −4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Catena Media plc (CTM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Catena Media plc is −5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Catena Media plc (CTM)?
The operating margin of Catena Media plc is 99.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Catena Media plc (CTM)?
Revenue at Catena Media plc is growing +25.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −24.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Catena Media plc (CTM)?
Earnings per share at Catena Media plc are growing +148% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Catena Media plc (CTM) hold?
Catena Media plc holds more cash than debt, €9.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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