Catalina Resources Ltd (CTN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Catalina Resources Ltd A$0.03, price A$0.06, upside -53.6%, quality 21 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0380 – A$0.5520 · the A$0.0550 price screens above the A$0.0255 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Catalina Resources Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Australia and Tasmania. It explores for lithium, iron, gold, rare earth elements, nickel, copper, and base metals.
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Catalina Resources Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Australia and Tasmania. It explores for lithium, iron, gold, rare earth elements, nickel, copper, and base metals. The company was formerly known as Shree Minerals Limited and changed its name to Catalina Resources Ltd in November 2022. Catalina Resources Ltd was incorporated in 2008 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Catalina Resources Ltd (CTN) currently trades at A$0.0550, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0255, 53.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Catalina Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$119K in FY2025 versus A$2.6M in FY2017, a compound −32.1%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$11.8M (≈ $8.2M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.1700 · Return on equity −26.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −13.8% · Operating margin −12,953% · Revenue growth (YoY) −16.4% · Free cash flow −A$1.9M · Net cash A$2.2M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −54%, CTN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0255Fair Value A$0.0255Bull A$0.0255
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.8%
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
’11
’14
’17
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−624.1% (2011) → −1,437.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 232 stocks
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Is Catalina Resources Ltd (CTN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0255 versus a price of A$0.0550, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CTN?
Our model-based fair value for Catalina Resources Ltd is A$0.0255 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0550.
What is the quality score of CTN?
Catalina Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 21/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Catalina Resources Ltd (CTN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0255 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Catalina Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0255, about −54% upside versus a price of A$0.0550 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Catalina Resources Ltd (CTN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Catalina Resources Ltd it is A$0.0255 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$0.0550. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Catalina Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, CTN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0550, fair value A$0.0255, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0550); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0255). For Catalina Resources Ltd the two are A$0.0295 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Catalina Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Catalina Resources Ltd at about A$11.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0550; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0255 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Catalina Resources Ltd (CTN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Catalina Resources Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −26.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 21/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTN from its 52-week high?
Catalina Resources Ltd trades at A$0.0550, about 56% below its 52-week high of A$0.1250 and 45% above the low of A$0.0380 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0255 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Catalina Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Catalina Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$0.0550, calculated fair value A$0.0255 (−54%), Quality Score 21/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTN calculated?
We run Catalina Resources Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0255, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Catalina Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Catalina Resources Ltd (CTN)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was A$0.0550. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0255, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Catalina Resources Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0255). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (21/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Catalina Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Catalina Resources Ltd (CTN)?
The market capitalisation of Catalina Resources Ltd is A$11.8M (≈ $8.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Catalina Resources Ltd (CTN)?
Earnings per share at Catalina Resources Ltd are A$−0.1700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Catalina Resources Ltd (CTN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Catalina Resources Ltd is −26.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Catalina Resources Ltd (CTN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Catalina Resources Ltd is −13.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Catalina Resources Ltd (CTN)?
The operating margin of Catalina Resources Ltd is −12,953% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Catalina Resources Ltd (CTN)?
Revenue at Catalina Resources Ltd is growing −16.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +58.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Catalina Resources Ltd (CTN) generate?
The free cash flow of Catalina Resources Ltd is −A$1.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Catalina Resources Ltd (CTN) hold?
Catalina Resources Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$2.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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