CTO Realty Growth, Inc (CTO) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · US · Market cap $696M

Below-average quality, and screening another 57% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $10.93 – $22.53 · fair‑value band $7.14 – $9.27 · the $21.75 price screens above the $9.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

CTO Realty Growth, Inc (CTO) currently trades at $21.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.27, implying the stock looks roughly 57.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, CTO Realty Growth, Inc generated revenue of $155M at a net margin of 9.1%. Revenue grew 15.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.4%. Net debt stands at $610M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $7.14 (bear case) to $9.27 (bull case); at $21.75, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -57%, CTO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($21.41) versus Growth DCF ($3.09). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust. The firm owns and operates a portfolio of high-quality, retail-based properties located primarily in higher growth markets in the United States. CTO also externally manages and owns a meaningful interest in Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc., a publicly traded net lease REIT.

Full company description

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust. The firm owns and operates a portfolio of high-quality, retail-based properties located primarily in higher growth markets in the United States. CTO also externally manages and owns a meaningful interest in Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc., a publicly traded net lease REIT. CTO Realty Growth, Inc. was incorporated in 1902 and is based in Winter Park, United States.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CTO Realty Growth, Inc reported revenue of $150M in FY2025 versus $70.3M in FY2021, a compound +20.8%/yr. Reported net income was $10.1M in FY2025, compounding −23.8%/yr from FY2021.

CTO screens 57% overvalued. Compare with Goodman Group →

Peer Group

REIT - Diversified · 165 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.