Central Petroleum Limited (CTP) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · AU · Market cap A$49.7M
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from A$0.1018 to A$0.1148 (+12.8%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +5.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 82% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.0950). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0420 – A$0.1500 · fair‑value band A$0.0950 – A$0.1676 · the A$0.0630 price screens below the A$0.1148 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Central Petroleum Limited (CTP) currently trades at A$0.0630, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1148, implying the stock looks roughly 82.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Central Petroleum Limited generated revenue of A$46.9M at a net margin of 9.6%. Revenue grew 17.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$1.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0950 (bear case) to A$0.1676 (bull case); at A$0.0630, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at 82%, CTP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$0.4200) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Notify me when CTP reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Central Petroleum Limited engages in the development, production, processing, and marketing of hydrocarbons, including natural gas, and crude oil and condensate in Australia.
Full company description
Central Petroleum Limited engages in the development, production, processing, and marketing of hydrocarbons, including natural gas, and crude oil and condensate in Australia. The company holds interests in various oil and gas properties comprising 159,362 square kilometers of exploration area located in the Amadeus, Wiso, and Georgina Basins in the Northern Territory. Central Petroleum Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Central Petroleum Limited reported revenue of A$43.6M in FY2025 versus A$59.8M in FY2021, a compound −7.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$7.7M in FY2025, compounding +135.6%/yr from FY2021.
Watch CTP: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
Compare Central Petroleum Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Energy stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Central Petroleum Limited (CTP) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of CTP?
What is the quality score of CTP?
What is the revenue of Central Petroleum Limited (CTP)?
What is the net profit margin of CTP?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Central Petroleum Limited and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.