Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Central Petroleum Ltd A$0.22, price A$0.06, upside +259.6%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0420 – A$0.1500 · fair‑value band A$0.1414 – A$0.3336 · the A$0.0600 price screens below the A$0.2158 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Central Petroleum Limited engages in the development, production, processing, and marketing of hydrocarbons, including natural gas, and crude oil and condensate in Australia.
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Central Petroleum Limited engages in the development, production, processing, and marketing of hydrocarbons, including natural gas, and crude oil and condensate in Australia. The company holds interests in various oil and gas properties comprising 159,362 square kilometers of exploration area located in the Amadeus, Wiso, and Georgina Basins in the Northern Territory. Central Petroleum Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP) currently trades at A$0.0600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.2158, implying the stock looks roughly 72.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$0.4200 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$0.0600 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0400, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.1414 (bear) to A$0.3336 (bull), the price of A$0.0600 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Central Petroleum Ltd reported revenue of A$43.6M in FY2025 versus A$59.8M in FY2021, a compound −7.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$7.7M in FY2025, compounding +135.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap A$46.1M (≈ $32.1M) · P/E ratio 6.0 · P/S ratio 1.06 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0100 · Net margin 17.7% · Return on equity 12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% · Operating margin −1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 260%, CTP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.1414Fair Value A$0.2158Bull A$0.3336
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0100 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.5% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+66.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 24%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 264 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.3% · Above median
Return on assets3.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−1.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.57× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Is Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.2158 versus a price of A$0.0600, about +260% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CTP?
Our model-based fair value for Central Petroleum Ltd is A$0.2158 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0600.
What is the quality score of CTP?
Central Petroleum Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.2158 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1414, optimistic scenario A$0.3336. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Central Petroleum Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.2158, about +260% upside versus a price of A$0.0600 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1414, optimistic scenario A$0.3336. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP)?
Central Petroleum Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$46.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Central Petroleum Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -11.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.7 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CTP use?
Our models discount Central Petroleum Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Central Petroleum Ltd that is -11.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Central Petroleum Ltd grew -7.7 % a year. The price currently implies -11.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Central Petroleum Ltd (-11.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.53 %: that much free cash flow Central Petroleum Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Central Petroleum Ltd it is A$0.2158 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of A$0.0600. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Central Petroleum Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, CTP trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0600, fair value A$0.2158, a gap of about +260% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.2158). For Central Petroleum Ltd the two are A$0.1558 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Central Petroleum Ltd worth?
The market values Central Petroleum Ltd at about A$46.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0600; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.2158 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTP?
Our models span a range for Central Petroleum Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1414, base A$0.2158, optimistic A$0.3336 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price A$0.0600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CTP?
Central Petroleum Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.0 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.2158 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 1.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Central Petroleum Ltd (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 12.3%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTP from its 52-week high?
Central Petroleum Ltd trades at A$0.0600, about 38% below its 52-week high of A$0.0960 and 9% above the low of A$0.0550 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.2158 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Central Petroleum Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Central Petroleum Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price A$0.0600, calculated fair value A$0.2158 (+260%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTP calculated?
We run Central Petroleum Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.2158, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Central Petroleum Ltd currently trades 72 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was A$0.0600. Our model-based fair value is A$0.2158, about +260% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Central Petroleum Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.1414). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (A$0.1414 to A$0.3336) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Central Petroleum Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP)?
The market capitalisation of Central Petroleum Ltd is A$46.1M (≈ $32.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Central Petroleum Ltd is 1.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP)?
Earnings per share at Central Petroleum Ltd are A$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP)?
The net margin of Central Petroleum Ltd is 17.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Central Petroleum Ltd is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Central Petroleum Ltd is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP)?
The operating margin of Central Petroleum Ltd is −1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP)?
Revenue at Central Petroleum Ltd is growing +17.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP)?
Earnings per share at Central Petroleum Ltd are growing −89.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Central Petroleum Ltd (CTP) hold?
Central Petroleum Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$1.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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