Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. $0.00, price $0.00, upside +0.0%, quality 24 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Country Garden Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, invests, develops, and constructs real estate properties in Mainland China. The company develops residential projects, such as townhouses and condominiums, and car parks and retail shops spaces. It also develops, operates, and manages hotels.
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Country Garden Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, invests, develops, and constructs real estate properties in Mainland China. The company develops residential projects, such as townhouses and condominiums, and car parks and retail shops spaces. It also develops, operates, and manages hotels. In addition, the company engages in the robotics and light-asset entrusted management and construction services; rendering of property related sales services; interior decoration activities; and provision of project management and related services, as well as investment consulting services. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Foshan, the People's Republic of China. Country Garden Holdings Company Limited is a subsidiary of Concrete Win Limited.
Stock analysis
Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ) currently trades at $0.0002, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0002, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.0%).
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 14 models at a data quality of 88/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 155B CNY in FY2025 versus 523B CNY in FY2021, a compound −26.2%/yr. Reported net income was 3.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding −40.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.4M · P/E ratio 0.0 · EPS (TTM) $0.0700 · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 17.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.4% · Operating margin −16.6% · Revenue (TTM) 126B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 100% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 0%, CTRYQ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0002Fair Value $0.0002Bull $0.0002
Price $0.0002 · Upside +0.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0533 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.37/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−38.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.2% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−40.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−40.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−40.6% vs −13.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → −34%
Compare Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 583 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score24 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+0.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−3.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)5.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−16.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−39.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)0.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
PEG0.13× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)33· sector 69
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 59
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0002 versus a price of $0.0002, about +0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CTRYQ?
Our model-based fair value for Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. is $0.0002 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0002.
What is the quality score of CTRYQ?
Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0002 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 5 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0002, about +0% upside versus a price of $0.0002 (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ)?
Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 126B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. it is $0.0002 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of $0.0002. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, CTRYQ trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.0002, fair value $0.0002, a gap of about +0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTRYQ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0002); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0002). For Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. the two are $0.0000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. at about $9.4M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is $0.0002; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0002 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of CTRYQ?
Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.0 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.0002 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.1.
What is the PEG ratio of CTRYQ?
The PEG ratio of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. is 0.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (as of Oct 4, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 24/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTRYQ from its 52-week high?
Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. trades at $0.0002, about 100% below its 52-week high of $0.0800 and at the low of $0.0002 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0002 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price $0.0002, calculated fair value $0.0002 (+0%), Quality Score 24/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTRYQ calculated?
We run Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0002, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.0002. Our model-based fair value is $0.0002, about +0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ)?
The market capitalisation of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. is $9.4M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ)?
Earnings per share at Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. are $0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ)?
The net margin of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. is 2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. is −3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ)?
The operating margin of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. is −16.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ)?
Revenue at Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. is growing −39.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −28.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ) generate?
The free cash flow of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. is 1.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. (CTRYQ) carry?
The net debt of Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. is 145B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 94.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 4, 2026