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Carnarvon Energy Ltd (CVN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Carnarvon Energy Ltd A$0.09, price A$0.11, upside -14.3%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Energy · AU · ISIN AU000000CVN8

CE Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Carnarvon Energy Ltd

CVN · AU

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value A$0.0900 · Overvalued (−14%)
!Quality 54/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −25.5 %/yr)
✓generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/9)
!Narrow moat 14/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 14 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.3650 A$0.0840 Fair Value A$0.0900 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0840 – A$0.3650 · fair‑value band A$0.0900 – A$0.1100 · the A$0.1050 price screens above the A$0.0900 fair value. 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Carnarvon Energy Limited engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas properties in Australia. It owns various interests in the Dorado, Pavo, Roc, Phoenix, and Phoenix South project located in the Bedout Sub-basin permits of Western Australia. The company engages in carbon initiatives and new energy business.

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Carnarvon Energy Limited engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas properties in Australia. It owns various interests in the Dorado, Pavo, Roc, Phoenix, and Phoenix South project located in the Bedout Sub-basin permits of Western Australia. The company engages in carbon initiatives and new energy business. The company was incorporated in 1983 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Carnarvon Energy Ltd (CVN) currently trades at A$0.1050, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0900, implying the stock looks roughly 16.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$0.1300 per share, and 5 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$0.1050 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$0.0300, and 8 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: A$0.0900 (bear) to A$0.1100 (bull), the price of A$0.1050 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Carnarvon Energy Ltd reported revenue of A$0 in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was A$3.6M in FY2025, compounding −32.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap A$188M (≈ $132M) · Return on equity −1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.5% · Operating margin −76.7% · Revenue (TTM) −A$2.1M · Revenue growth (YoY) −73.7% · Free cash flow A$3.1K · Net cash A$186M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −14%, CVN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0900 Fair Value A$0.0900 Bull A$0.1100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF A$0.1100 A$0.1100 A$0.1100 69
Growth DCF A$0.1100 A$0.1100 A$0.1100 66
Owner Earnings A$0.1300 A$0.1500 A$0.2000 64
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF A$0.1100 A$0.1100 A$0.1100 69
Owner Earnings A$0.1300 A$0.1500 A$0.2000 64
5Y P/E Exit A$0.1200 A$0.1400 A$0.1700 59
10Y P/E Exit A$0.1100 A$0.1300 A$0.1600 54
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$0.0100 A$0.1000 A$0.1400 53
Lynch FV A$0.0500 A$0.0700 A$0.0900 52
PEG = 1.0 A$0.0500 A$0.0700 A$0.0900 49
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0400 62
P/B Multiple A$0.0300 A$0.0300 A$0.0400 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0800 A$0.1000 A$0.1500 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF A$0.1100 A$0.1100 A$0.1100 66
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$0.0900 A$0.0800 A$0.0500 60
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$0.0600 A$0.0800 A$0.1100 58

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 99
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 66
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 20/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+26.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.5%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−28.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−28.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−29% vs −21%, slowing
Profit margin 2009 to 2014 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.76% → 0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

CVN screens 17% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside −14% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −77% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −74% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.49× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 42,160.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.74× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)14 · sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 10
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 74

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

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Woodside Energy Group WDS A$31.13 A$23.59 −24%
EQT Corporation EQT $51.06 $56.17 +10%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $335.74 $318.28 −5%

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A$0.0900 −17%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Carnarvon Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CVN

Frequently asked questions

Is Carnarvon Energy Ltd (CVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0900 versus a price of A$0.1050, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CVN?
Our model-based fair value for Carnarvon Energy Ltd is A$0.0900 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1050.
What is the quality score of CVN?
Carnarvon Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carnarvon Energy Ltd (CVN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0900 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0900, optimistic scenario A$0.1100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carnarvon Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0900, about −14% upside versus a price of A$0.1050 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0900, optimistic scenario A$0.1100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Carnarvon Energy Ltd (CVN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carnarvon Energy Ltd it is A$0.0900 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.1050. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Carnarvon Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CVN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1050, fair value A$0.0900, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CVN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1050); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0900). For Carnarvon Energy Ltd the two are A$0.0150 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carnarvon Energy Ltd worth?
The market values Carnarvon Energy Ltd at about A$188M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1050; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CVN?
Our models span a range for Carnarvon Energy Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0900, base A$0.0900, optimistic A$0.1100 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.1050). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CVN?
The PEG ratio of Carnarvon Energy Ltd is 0.74 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carnarvon Energy Ltd (CVN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carnarvon Energy Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −1.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CVN from its 52-week high?
Carnarvon Energy Ltd trades at A$0.1050, about 19% below its 52-week high of A$0.1300 and 25% above the low of A$0.0840 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carnarvon Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carnarvon Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.1050, calculated fair value A$0.0900 (−14%), Quality Score 54/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CVN calculated?
We run Carnarvon Energy Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Carnarvon Energy Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Carnarvon Energy Ltd (CVN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.1050. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0900, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Carnarvon Energy Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Carnarvon Energy Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Carnarvon Energy Ltd (CVN)?
The market capitalisation of Carnarvon Energy Ltd is A$188M (≈ $132M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Carnarvon Energy Ltd (CVN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Carnarvon Energy Ltd is −1.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Carnarvon Energy Ltd (CVN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Carnarvon Energy Ltd is −2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Carnarvon Energy Ltd (CVN)?
The operating margin of Carnarvon Energy Ltd is −76.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Carnarvon Energy Ltd (CVN) generate?
Carnarvon Energy Ltd generates revenue of −A$2.1M (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Carnarvon Energy Ltd (CVN)?
Revenue at Carnarvon Energy Ltd is growing −73.7% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Carnarvon Energy Ltd (CVN) generate?
The free cash flow of Carnarvon Energy Ltd is A$3.1K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Carnarvon Energy Ltd (CVN) hold?
Carnarvon Energy Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$186M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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