Carnarvon Energy Limited (CVN) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · AU · Market cap A$188M
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −3.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 18% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0800). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0840 – A$0.3650 · fair‑value band A$0.0600 – A$0.0800 · the A$0.0970 price screens above the A$0.0800 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Carnarvon Energy Limited (CVN) currently trades at A$0.0970, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0800, implying the stock looks roughly 17.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Revenue declined 73.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$186M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0600 (bear case) to A$0.0800 (bull case); at A$0.0970, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -18%, CVN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$0.1300) versus Multiples (A$0.0300). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Carnarvon Energy Limited engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas properties in Australia. It owns various interests in the Dorado, Pavo, Roc, Phoenix, and Phoenix South project located in the Bedout Sub-basin permits of Western Australia. The company engages in carbon initiatives and new energy business.
Full company description
Carnarvon Energy Limited engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas properties in Australia. It owns various interests in the Dorado, Pavo, Roc, Phoenix, and Phoenix South project located in the Bedout Sub-basin permits of Western Australia. The company engages in carbon initiatives and new energy business. The company was incorporated in 1983 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carnarvon Energy Limited reported revenue of A$0 in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was A$3.6M in FY2025, compounding −32.1%/yr from FY2021.
CVN screens 18% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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