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China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Water Affairs Group $1.52, price $0.62, upside +145.2%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Utilities · US · Home Hong Kong · ISIN BMG210901242

Thin data Oct 2, 2026

China Water Affairs Group

CWAFF · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $1.52 · Strongly undervalued (+145.2%)

!Quality 46/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +6.0 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 8.2% net margin (TTM)

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

!Moderate moat 53/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

26 models, one by oneBear $0.8400 to bull $1.89 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 46/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.1125 – $0.9313 · fair‑value band $0.8400 – $1.89 · the $0.6200 price screens below the $1.52 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

China Water Affairs Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the water supply, environmental protection, and property businesses in the People's Republic of China.

China Water Affairs Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the water supply, environmental protection, and property businesses in the People's Republic of China. It operates through City Water Supply, Pipeline Direct Drinking Water Supply, Environmental Protection, Main Contractor Construction, and Property Development and Investment segments. The City Water Supply segment is involved in the provision of water supply operation and construction, installation and maintenance, and other services. Its Pipeline Direct Drinking Water Supply segment is involved in the provision of pipeline direct drinking water supply operations and construction, installation and maintenance services, and other services. The Environmental Protection segment engages in sewage treatment, drainage operation, construction services, solid and hazardous waste, environmental sanitation, and water environment management businesses. Its Main Contractor Construction segment is involved in the provision of municipal public construction services. The Property Development and Investment segment develops, sells, and invests in properties. It also involved in the development and infrastructure of sightseeing area; provision of water environmental renovation infrastructure; construction and operations in urban water treatment business, remediation and rural water improvement; and investment, construction, and operation of water conservation and hydropower related projects, as well as energy conservation and environmental protection and hotel operations. In addition, the company offers warehousing, storage, trading and distribution of oil related products. The company was formerly known as China Silver Dragon Group Limited and changed its name to China Water Affairs Group Limited in December 2004. China Water Affairs Group Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF) currently trades at $0.6200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.52, implying the stock looks roughly 59.2% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $2.30 per share, and 21 of the 23 models we run sit above the $0.6200 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.2200, and 2 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.8400 (bear) to $1.89 (bull), the price of $0.6200 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

China Water Affairs Group reported revenue of HK$11.7B in FY2025 versus HK$10.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.1B in FY2025, compounding −10.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.0B · P/E ratio 8.8 · P/S ratio 0.81 · EPS (TTM) $0.0700 · Net margin 9.2% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8% · Operating margin 28.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at 145%, CWAFF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.8400 Fair Value $1.52 Bull $1.89

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF n/a $0.1300 >$0.5200 74

Residual Income $0.8100 $0.8500 $0.9400 74

EPV $0.6100 $0.8500 $1.05 73

All 23 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF n/a $0.1300 >$0.5200 74

5Y Revenue Exit $0.2500 $1.57 $4.21 60

5Y EBITDA Exit $0.9300 $2.99 $6.87 65

5Y P/E Exit n/a $1.04 $2.56 65

10Y Revenue Exit n/a $1.54 $3.15 62

10Y EBITDA Exit $0.4900 $2.75 $7.15 57

10Y P/E Exit n/a $0.8600 $2.72 59

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $0.5700 $3.99 $5.60 61

Lynch FV $1.28 $1.83 $2.38 59

PEG = 1.0 $1.28 $1.83 $2.38 55

EPV $0.6100 $0.8500 $1.05 73

Multiples

P/E Multiple $1.14 $1.52 $1.89 63

P/S Multiple $1.07 $1.43 $1.79 58

P/B Multiple $1.07 $1.43 $1.79 55

EV/EBIT $1.96 $3.00 $4.03 65

EV/EBITDA $1.58 $2.49 $3.40 66

EV/Revenue $0.4500 $1.13 $1.82 50

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $0.5200 $0.6900 $1.03 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF n/a $0.2200 >$0.8800 73

Rev-Margin DCF $0.2500 $1.85 $4.29 62

Economic Profit

Residual Income $0.8100 $0.8500 $0.9400 74

ROIC Compounder $0.6100 $0.8500 $1.07 70

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $1.61 $2.30 $2.99 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 25

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 38

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 55

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 16

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 58

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 50

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 49

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 55

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 39/100

Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Revenue growth 1 year

−9.4%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−3.4%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+6.0%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.1% a year

Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+14.8%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.

+4.1%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+4.1%

Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.4% vs 9.7%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 30%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price

The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

+55.3%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

−4.0%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +52.1% a year for the price and −6.0% for the forecasts.

Forecast 2026 (sales)−8.0%

Forecast 2027 (sales)−8.0%

Forecast 2028 (sales)−1.8%

Projected 2029 (sales)−1.3%

Projected 2030 (sales)−0.7%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 61 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 46 · Above median

Fair Value upside +131.9% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 7.5% · Below median

Return on assets 2.6% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 8.2% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 28.9% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −12.9% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 45.2% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 1.48× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.8× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 0.60× · Cheapest 25%

P/S (TTM) 0.73× · Cheapest 25%

P/FCF 6.8× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 5.8× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
American Water Works Company AWK	$127.86	$64.66	−49%
Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG	$39.23	$23.30	−41%
Guangdong Investment Limited 0270	HK$8.71	HK$12.82	+47%
Grandblue Environment Co 600323	¥29.48	¥57.09	+94%
American States Water Company AWR	$81.35	$38.24	−53%
Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598	¥7.01	¥9.09	+30%
Beijing Capital Eco-Environment Protection Group 600008	¥2.71	¥3.43	+27%
Chongqing Water Group 601158	¥4.00	¥1.76	−56%
California Water Service Group CWT	$45.84	$25.01	−45%
H2O America, through its subsidiaries, HTO	$61.63	$29.34	−52%

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China Water Affairs Group · Fair Value
$1.52 +59%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Water Affairs Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CWAFF

Frequently asked questions

Is China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.52 versus a price of $0.6200, about +145% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of CWAFF?

Our model-based fair value for China Water Affairs Group is $1.52 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.6200.

What is the quality score of CWAFF?

China Water Affairs Group has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.52 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.8400, optimistic scenario $1.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the China Water Affairs Group stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $1.52, about +145% upside versus a price of $0.6200 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.8400, optimistic scenario $1.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF)?

China Water Affairs Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$10.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).

What growth is priced into China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Water Affairs Group would have to grow free cash flow by +55.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CWAFF use?

Our models discount China Water Affairs Group at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Water Affairs Group that is +55.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at China Water Affairs Group grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies +55.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Water Affairs Group (+55.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.89 %: that much free cash flow China Water Affairs Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Water Affairs Group it is $1.52 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $0.6200. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is China Water Affairs Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Oct 2, 2026, CWAFF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.6200, fair value $1.52, a gap of about +145% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of CWAFF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.6200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.52). For China Water Affairs Group the two are $0.9000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is China Water Affairs Group worth?

The market values China Water Affairs Group at about $1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $0.6200; our models calculate a fair value of $1.52 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CWAFF?

Our models span a range for China Water Affairs Group: cautious scenario $0.8400, base $1.52, optimistic $1.89 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $0.6200). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of CWAFF?

China Water Affairs Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.8 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 5.8.

How solid is the balance sheet of China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF)?

Balance-sheet figures for China Water Affairs Group (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 7.5%, debt of 1.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is CWAFF from its 52-week high?

China Water Affairs Group trades at $0.6200, about 20% below its 52-week high of $0.7785 and 1% above the low of $0.6109 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.52 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to China Water Affairs Group?

From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Guangdong Investment Limited, Grandblue Environment Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is China Water Affairs Group stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $0.6200, calculated fair value $1.52 (+145%), Quality Score 46/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of CWAFF calculated?

We run China Water Affairs Group through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Water Affairs Group currently trades 59 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF)?

The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.6200. Our model-based fair value is $1.52, about +145% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with China Water Affairs Group right now?

The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.8400). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($0.8400 to $1.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Where does the earnings growth of China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF) come from?

Earnings per share at China Water Affairs Group grew +14.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.3 %, EBIT margin +0.6 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Water Affairs Group

How large is the market capitalisation of China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF)?

The market capitalisation of China Water Affairs Group is $1.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of China Water Affairs Group is 0.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF)?

Earnings per share at China Water Affairs Group are $0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF)?

The net margin of China Water Affairs Group is 9.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of China Water Affairs Group is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Water Affairs Group is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF)?

The operating margin of China Water Affairs Group is 28.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF)?

Revenue at China Water Affairs Group is growing −12.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF)?

Earnings per share at China Water Affairs Group are growing −24.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does China Water Affairs Group (CWAFF) carry?

The net debt of China Water Affairs Group is HK$20.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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