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China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of China Yuchai International Limited $43.68, price $34.60, upside +26.2%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN BMG210821051

CY China Yuchai International Limited logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

China Yuchai International Limited

CYD · US

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value $43.68 · Undervalued (+26%)
✓Quality 66/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +3.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·1.53% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (11/12)
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 26 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$59.71 $6.39 Fair Value $43.68 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.39 – $59.71 · fair‑value band $32.76 – $54.61 · the $34.60 price screens below the $43.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

China Yuchai International Limited manufactures, assembles, and sells diesel and natural gas engines for trucks, buses, pickups, construction and agricultural equipment, and marine and power generation applications. It operates through two segments: Yuchai and HLGE. The Yuchai segment manufactures on- and off-road powertrain solutions and applications.

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China Yuchai International Limited manufactures, assembles, and sells diesel and natural gas engines for trucks, buses, pickups, construction and agricultural equipment, and marine and power generation applications. It operates through two segments: Yuchai and HLGE. The Yuchai segment manufactures on- and off-road powertrain solutions and applications. The HLGE is engaged in hospitality and property development activities. The company provides diesel engines comprising 4- and 6-cylinder diesel engines, high-horsepower marine and power generator engines; natural gas engines, hydrogen combustion engines, methanol combustion engines, diesel power generators, power generator sets, engine components and parts, diesel engine parts, and remanufacturing services; as well as plug in hybrid engines, range extenders, power generation powertrains, hybrid powertrains, electric drive axle powertrain, and fuel cell systems. It also offers repair, maintenance, training and skills-enhancement training. It distributes its engines directly to auto original equipment manufacturers, agents, and retailers in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company was founded in 1951 and is based in Singapore.

Stock analysis

China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) currently trades at $34.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $43.68, implying the stock looks roughly 20.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $292.60 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the $34.60 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $48.29, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $32.76 (bear) to $54.61 (bull), the price of $34.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

China Yuchai International Limited reported revenue of 24.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 21.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was 523M CNY in FY2025, compounding +17.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.8B · P/E ratio 16.4 · P/S ratio 0.36 · EPS (TTM) $2.11 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 6.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 26%, CYD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $32.76 Fair Value $43.68 Bull $54.61
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.16 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $748.11 $1,014 $1,381 81
Growth DCF $748.87 $975.57 $1,266 80
Owner Earnings $366.62 $444.54 $551.83 78
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $748.11 $1,014 $1,381 81
Owner Earnings $366.62 $444.54 $551.83 78
5Y Revenue Exit $509.00 $617.23 $746.77 74
5Y EBITDA Exit $608.94 $808.25 $1,038 76
5Y P/E Exit $539.46 $675.43 $815.47 72
10Y Revenue Exit $596.79 $716.28 $865.46 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $659.55 $838.89 $1,073 70
10Y P/E Exit $618.69 $753.65 $914.33 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $94.75 $328.05 $440.70 64
Lynch FV $75.98 $108.54 $141.10 61
PEG = 1.0 $75.98 $108.54 $141.10 57
EPV $275.63 $284.75 $292.35 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $29.58 $53.31 $73.38 68
DDM Multi-Stage $29.58 $48.29 $56.94 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $219.45 $292.60 $365.75 63
P/S Multiple $177.65 $236.86 $296.08 58
P/B Multiple $177.65 $236.86 $296.08 55
EV/EBIT $421.94 $493.01 $564.07 66
EV/EBITDA $556.90 $672.95 $789.01 67
EV/Revenue $360.91 $426.12 $491.34 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $127.68 $171.10 $255.37 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $748.87 $975.57 $1,266 80
Rev-Margin DCF $509.00 $625.32 $766.06 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $186.18 $185.20 $168.31 76
ROIC Compounder $279.48 $295.48 $313.77 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $188.50 $269.29 $350.08 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 72
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 59
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 22
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 64/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.7% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ −8.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs 1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 99% above its own trend.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 112 stocks

Beats the industry median on 11/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +25% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 23% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.4× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.37× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)68 · sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 22
PAST (return on equity)26 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)31 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Tesla, Inc TSLA $378.90 $43.25 −89%
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $192.06 $210.40 +10%
BYD Company 002594 ¥86.58 ¥61.43 −29%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 353,500 KRW 372,872 KRW +5%
General Motors Company GM $83.45 $61.21 −27%
Ferrari N.V RACE $413.32 $454.65 +10%
Ford Motor Company F $13.10 $12.62 −4%
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG €43.47 €106.88 +146%
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 €45.32 €21.98 −52%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹12,190 ₹8,236 −32%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Yuchai International Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CYD

Frequently asked questions

Is China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $43.68 versus a price of $34.60, about +26% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CYD?
Our model-based fair value for China Yuchai International Limited is $43.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $34.60.
What is the quality score of CYD?
China Yuchai International Limited has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $43.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $32.76, optimistic scenario $54.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Yuchai International Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $43.68, about +26% upside versus a price of $34.60 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $32.76, optimistic scenario $54.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)?
China Yuchai International Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $24.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does China Yuchai International Limited pay a dividend?
China Yuchai International Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.53% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Yuchai International Limited it is $43.68 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $34.60. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Yuchai International Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CYD trades below its calculated fair value: price $34.60, fair value $43.68, a gap of about +26% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CYD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($34.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($43.68). For China Yuchai International Limited the two are $9.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Yuchai International Limited worth?
The market values China Yuchai International Limited at about $1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $34.60; our models calculate a fair value of $43.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CYD?
Our models span a range for China Yuchai International Limited: cautious scenario $32.76, base $43.68, optimistic $54.61 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $34.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CYD?
China Yuchai International Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $43.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4.
What is the PEG ratio of CYD?
The PEG ratio of China Yuchai International Limited is 0.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Yuchai International Limited (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.4%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CYD from its 52-week high?
China Yuchai International Limited trades at $34.60, about 42% below its 52-week high of $59.71 and 7% above the low of $32.32 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $43.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Yuchai International Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Yuchai International Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $34.60, calculated fair value $43.68 (+26%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CYD calculated?
We run China Yuchai International Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $43.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. China Yuchai International Limited currently trades 26 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $34.60. Our model-based fair value is $43.68, about +26% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Yuchai International Limited right now?
Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) come from?
Earnings per share at China Yuchai International Limited grew −3.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.7 %, EBIT margin −9.0 %, tax rate −1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Yuchai International Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)?
The market capitalisation of China Yuchai International Limited is $1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Yuchai International Limited is 0.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)?
Earnings per share at China Yuchai International Limited are $2.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)?
The dividend yield of China Yuchai International Limited is 1.5% (payout 25.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)?
The net margin of China Yuchai International Limited is 2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Yuchai International Limited is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Yuchai International Limited is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)?
The operating margin of China Yuchai International Limited is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)?
Revenue at China Yuchai International Limited is growing +23.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)?
Earnings per share at China Yuchai International Limited are growing +109% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) generate?
The free cash flow of China Yuchai International Limited is $2.1B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) hold?
China Yuchai International Limited holds more cash than debt, $5.8B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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