Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Catalyst Metals Ltd A$7.36, price A$6.16, upside +19.5%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.4600 – A$9.64 · fair‑value band A$5.33 – A$9.00 · the A$6.16 price screens below the A$7.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Catalyst Metals Limited engages in the mineral exploration and evaluation in Australia. The company primarily explores for gold and silver deposits. It also involved in the mine development business. Catalyst Metals Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL) currently trades at A$6.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$7.36, implying the stock looks roughly 16.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$19.68 per share, and 12 of the 23 models we run sit above the A$6.16 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.21, and 11 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$5.33 (bear) to A$9.00 (bull), the price of A$6.16 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Catalyst Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$361M in FY2025 versus A$28.5M in FY2021, a compound +88.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$119M in FY2025, compounding +236.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$1.5B (≈ $1.0B) · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 4.96 · EPS (TTM) A$0.4100 · Net margin 33.0% · Return on equity 26.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% · Operating margin 45.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 19%, CYL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$5.33Fair Value A$7.36Bull A$9.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.4100 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+49.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+78.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+66.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +166.3% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5.0% (2020) → 40.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+48.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.4% a year for the price and +44.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+20% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Return on assets20% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)29% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)45% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth51% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$7.36 versus a price of A$6.16, about +19% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CYL?
Our model-based fair value for Catalyst Metals Ltd is A$7.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$6.16.
What is the quality score of CYL?
Catalyst Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$7.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$5.33, optimistic scenario A$9.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Catalyst Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$7.36, about +19% upside versus a price of A$6.16 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$5.33, optimistic scenario A$9.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL)?
Catalyst Metals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$451M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Catalyst Metals Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +25.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +66.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CYL use?
Our models discount Catalyst Metals Ltd at 11.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.24, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Catalyst Metals Ltd that is +25.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Catalyst Metals Ltd grew +66.2 % a year. The price currently implies +25.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Catalyst Metals Ltd (+25.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.49 %: that much free cash flow Catalyst Metals Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Catalyst Metals Ltd it is A$7.36 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$6.16. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Catalyst Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CYL trades below its calculated fair value: price A$6.16, fair value A$7.36, a gap of about +19% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CYL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$6.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$7.36). For Catalyst Metals Ltd the two are A$1.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Catalyst Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Catalyst Metals Ltd at about A$1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$6.16; our models calculate a fair value of A$7.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CYL?
Our models span a range for Catalyst Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$5.33, base A$7.36, optimistic A$9.00 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$6.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CYL?
Catalyst Metals Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$7.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 12.7, P/B 2.2, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 4.0.
What is the PEG ratio of CYL?
The PEG ratio of Catalyst Metals Ltd is 12.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Catalyst Metals Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 26.3%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CYL from its 52-week high?
Catalyst Metals Ltd trades at A$6.16, about 36% below its 52-week high of A$9.64 and 31% above the low of A$4.72 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$7.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Catalyst Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Catalyst Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$6.16, calculated fair value A$7.36 (+19%), Quality Score 61/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CYL calculated?
We run Catalyst Metals Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$7.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Catalyst Metals Ltd currently trades 19 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$6.16. Our model-based fair value is A$7.36, about +19% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Catalyst Metals Ltd right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Catalyst Metals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL)?
The market capitalisation of Catalyst Metals Ltd is A$1.5B (≈ $1.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Catalyst Metals Ltd is 4.96 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL)?
Earnings per share at Catalyst Metals Ltd are A$0.4100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL)?
The net margin of Catalyst Metals Ltd is 33.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Catalyst Metals Ltd is 26.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Catalyst Metals Ltd is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL)?
The operating margin of Catalyst Metals Ltd is 45.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL)?
Revenue at Catalyst Metals Ltd is growing +50.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +78.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL)?
Earnings per share at Catalyst Metals Ltd are growing +13.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL) hold?
Catalyst Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$202M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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