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D3 Energy Ltd (D3E) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what D3 Energy Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · AU

DE Thin data Sep 13, 2026

D3 Energy Ltd

D3E · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.0300 · Strongly overvalued (−89%)
!Quality 45/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +841.0 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.5900 A$0.0480 Fair Value A$0.0300 May 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

28‑month range A$0.0480 – A$0.5900 · fair‑value band A$0.0200 – A$0.0400 · the A$0.2700 price screens above the A$0.0300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

D3 Energy Limited focuses on the acquisition, exploration, and development of natural gas and helium in South Africa. The company's flagship property is the ER315 project located in the Free State Province of South Africa. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

Stock analysis

D3 Energy Ltd (D3E) currently trades at A$0.2700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0300, implying the stock looks roughly 800.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 87/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0200 (bear) to A$0.0400 (bull), the price of A$0.2700 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

D3 Energy Ltd reported revenue of A$384K in FY2025 versus A$29.7K in FY2023, a compound +259.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$4.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$52.4M (≈ $37.5M) · P/S ratio 91.1 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0400 · Return on equity −50.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −28.3% · Operating margin −411% · Revenue (TTM) A$575K · Revenue growth (YoY) +32.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 187% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −89%, D3E screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0200 Fair Value A$0.0300 Bull A$0.0400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0300 A$0.0400 A$0.0700 50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0300 A$0.0400 A$0.0700 50

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 13

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 29
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 7
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

D3E screens 800% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 302 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Above median
Fair Value upside −90% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −34% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 33% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.72× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 65.63× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 16
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 9
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 87
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 71

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CNOOC Limited 600938 ¥33.91 ¥37.30 +10%
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $137.35 $90.15 −34%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ C$69.32 C$76.25 +10%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $147.36 $165.02 +12%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $61.46 $30.06 −51%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $204.97 $242.64 +18%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $50.23 $55.25 +10%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$32.86 A$21.75 −34%
EQT Corporation EQT $54.07 $59.48 +10%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $369.10 $318.08 −14%

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D3 Energy Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0300 −800%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "D3 Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/D3E

Frequently asked questions

Is D3 Energy Ltd (D3E) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0300 versus a price of A$0.2700, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of D3E?
Our model-based fair value for D3 Energy Ltd is A$0.0300 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.2700.
What is the quality score of D3E?
D3 Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0300 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0200, optimistic scenario A$0.0400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the D3 Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0300, about −89% upside versus a price of A$0.2700 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0200, optimistic scenario A$0.0400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
D3 Energy Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$575K (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For D3 Energy Ltd it is A$0.0300 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of A$0.2700. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is D3 Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, D3E trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.2700, fair value A$0.0300, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of D3E?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.2700); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0300). For D3 Energy Ltd the two are A$0.2400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is D3 Energy Ltd worth?
The market values D3 Energy Ltd at about A$52.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is A$0.2700; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about D3E?
Our models span a range for D3 Energy Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0200, base A$0.0300, optimistic A$0.0400 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price A$0.2700). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
Balance-sheet figures for D3 Energy Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −50.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is D3E from its 52-week high?
D3 Energy Ltd trades at A$0.2700, about 55% below its 52-week high of A$0.6000 and 187% above the low of A$0.0940 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to D3 Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is D3 Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price A$0.2700, calculated fair value A$0.0300 (−89%), Quality Score 45/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of D3E calculated?
We run D3 Energy Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. D3 Energy Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with D3 Energy Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0200 to A$0.0400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of D3 Energy Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
The market capitalisation of D3 Energy Ltd is A$52.4M (≈ $37.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
The price-to-sales ratio of D3 Energy Ltd is 91.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
Earnings per share at D3 Energy Ltd are A$−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
The return on equity (ROE) of D3 Energy Ltd is −50.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of D3 Energy Ltd is −28.3% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
The operating margin of D3 Energy Ltd is −411% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
Revenue at D3 Energy Ltd is growing +32.8% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does D3 Energy Ltd (D3E) generate?
The free cash flow of D3 Energy Ltd is −A$2.5M (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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