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D3 Energy Ltd (D3E) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of D3 Energy Ltd stock A$0.03, price A$0.26, upside -88.5%, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Energy AU

DE D3 Energy Ltd logo Thin data Oct 24, 2026

D3 Energy Ltd

D3E · AU
Very expensive, weak qualityPrice far above fair value, weak quality and a downtrend.Plus: Revenue last quarter +33% vs. a year ago.

Our calculation puts a fair price 88% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 47/100
Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +841.0 %/yr in AUD)
Fair value A$0.0300 · Strongly overvalued (−88.5%)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/8)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.5900 A$0.0480 Fair Value A$0.0300 May 2024 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

30‑month range A$0.0480 – A$0.5900 · fair‑value band A$0.0200 – A$0.0400 · the A$0.2600 price screens above the A$0.0300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 24, 2026.

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Company profile

D3 Energy Limited focuses on the acquisition, exploration, and development of natural gas and helium in South Africa. The company's flagship property is the ER315 project located in the Free State Province of South Africa. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

Stock analysis

D3 Energy Ltd (D3E) currently trades at A$0.2600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0300, 88.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 87/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0200 (bear) to A$0.0400 (bull), the price of A$0.2600 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

D3 Energy Ltd reported revenue of A$384K in FY2025 versus A$29.7K in FY2023, a compound +259.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$4.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$39.5M (≈ $27.9M) Micro · P/S ratio 64.7 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0500 · Return on equity −51.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −28.3% · Revenue (TTM) A$575K · Revenue growth (YoY) +32.8% · Free cash flow −A$2.5M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −88%, D3E screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0200 Fair Value A$0.0300 Bull A$0.0400
Price A$0.2600 · Upside -88.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0400 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0400 52

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 7
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 100
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 98
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 31
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 6
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 9
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 40
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

D3E screens overvalued: fair value 88% below the price. Compare with ConocoPhillips explores for, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 263 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Above median
Fair Value upside −88.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −39.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 32.8% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.89× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 68.65× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 70

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
CNOOC Limited 0883 HK$23.94 HK$40.17 +68% vs D3E
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $207.13 $242.64 +17% vs D3E
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ $55.11 $60.62 +10% vs D3E
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $163.68 $180.05 +10% vs D3E
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $51.23 $56.35 +10% vs D3E
EQT Corporation EQT $56.27 $61.90 +10% vs D3E
Woodside Energy Group WDS $23.16 $16.61 −28% vs D3E
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $147.96 $91.42 −38% vs D3E
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $64.07 $33.18 −48% vs D3E
Aker BP ASA AKRBP kr 386.00 kr 100.31 −74% vs D3E

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D3 Energy Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0300 −88%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "D3 Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/D3E

Frequently asked questions

Is D3 Energy Ltd (D3E) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0300 versus a price of A$0.2600, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of D3E?
Our model-based fair value for D3 Energy Ltd is A$0.0300 (as of Oct 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.2600.
What is the quality score of D3E?
D3 Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0300 (as of Oct 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0200, optimistic scenario A$0.0400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the D3 Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0300, about −88% upside versus a price of A$0.2600 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0200, optimistic scenario A$0.0400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
D3 Energy Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$575K (latest available figure, as of Oct 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For D3 Energy Ltd it is A$0.0300 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.2600. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is D3 Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 24, 2026, D3E trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.2600, fair value A$0.0300, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of D3E?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.2600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0300). For D3 Energy Ltd the two are A$0.2300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is D3 Energy Ltd worth?
The market values D3 Energy Ltd at about A$39.5M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.2600; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about D3E?
Our models span a range for D3 Energy Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0200, base A$0.0300, optimistic A$0.0400 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026, price A$0.2600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
Balance-sheet figures for D3 Energy Ltd (as of Oct 24, 2026): return on equity −51.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is D3E from its 52-week high?
D3 Energy Ltd trades at A$0.2600, about 46% below its 52-week high of A$0.4850 and 24% above the low of A$0.2100 (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to D3 Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is D3 Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 24, 2026: price A$0.2600, calculated fair value A$0.0300 (−88%), Quality Score 47/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of D3E calculated?
We run D3 Energy Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. D3 Energy Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was A$0.2600. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0300, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with D3 Energy Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0200 to A$0.0400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of D3 Energy Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
The market capitalisation of D3 Energy Ltd is A$39.5M (≈ $27.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
The price-to-sales ratio of D3 Energy Ltd is 64.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
Earnings per share at D3 Energy Ltd are A$−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
The return on equity (ROE) of D3 Energy Ltd is −51.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of D3 Energy Ltd is −28.3% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at D3 Energy Ltd (D3E)?
Revenue at D3 Energy Ltd is growing +32.8% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does D3 Energy Ltd (D3E) generate?
The free cash flow of D3 Energy Ltd is −A$2.5M (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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