Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated $103, price $63.04, upside +63.2%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
37‑month range $17.08 – $90.75 · fair‑value band $65.21 – $140.58 · the $63.04 price screens below the $102.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated engages in the automating, digitizing, and transforming the way people bank and shop worldwide. It operates through two segments, Banking and Retail. The company offers automated teller machines, cash recyclers, dispensers, teller automation tools, and kiosk technologies.
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Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated engages in the automating, digitizing, and transforming the way people bank and shop worldwide. It operates through two segments, Banking and Retail. The company offers automated teller machines, cash recyclers, dispensers, teller automation tools, and kiosk technologies. The Banking segment manufactures and sells branch automation solutions, including DN Series recyclers, ATMs, cash recycling technology, and the DN Teller Cash Recycler and Dual Tower Recycler, as well as provides multi-vendor service capabilities and DN Vynamic software for enhanced connectivity and analytics. It offers professional services such as systems integration, customization, project management, and consulting for integrated solutions. The Retail segment offers modular and integrated electronic point-of-sale (EPOS) systems, self-checkout solutions like DN Series EASY ONE and EASY MAX Kiosk, BEETLE POS systems, and a broad range of peripherals, including printers, scales, and mobile scanners. It also provides the DN Vynamic Retail Platform, which includes industry-specific solutions for fuel, convenience, specialty, fashion, and grocery; and platforms for digital receipts, rewards, data analysis, and compliance, as well as offers maintenance, support, global integration, remote device monitoring, and advisory services utilizing AI for predictive diagnostics and operational efficiencies. In addition, the company provides integrated core operations supporting security and efficient cash management, with offerings including installation, maintenance, managed services, automation, and data intelligence via the Allconnect data engine. The company was formerly known as Diebold, Incorporated and changed its name to Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated in December 2016. Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in North Canton, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) currently trades at $63.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $102.89, implying the stock looks roughly 38.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $115.96 per share, and 16 of the 23 models we run sit above the $63.04 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $21.28, and 7 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $65.21 (bear) to $140.58 (bull), the price of $63.04 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated reported revenue of $3.8B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was $94.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.0B · P/E ratio 21.7 · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) $2.90 · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% · Operating margin 6.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at 63%, DBD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $65.21Fair Value $102.89Bull $140.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.12 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−50.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−50.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 9%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.0% a year for the price and +0.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 702 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+60% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.85× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)21.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.69× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $102.89 versus a price of $63.04, about +63% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DBD?
Our model-based fair value for Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated is $102.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $63.04.
What is the quality score of DBD?
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $102.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $65.21, optimistic scenario $140.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $102.89, about +63% upside versus a price of $63.04 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $65.21, optimistic scenario $140.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)?
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated would have to grow free cash flow by -0.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DBD use?
Our models discount Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.15, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated that is -0.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated grew -0.5 % a year. The price currently implies -0.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (-0.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.23 %: that much free cash flow Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated it is $102.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $63.04. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, DBD trades below its calculated fair value: price $63.04, fair value $102.89, a gap of about +63% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DBD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($63.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($102.89). For Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated the two are $39.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated worth?
The market values Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated at about $3.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $63.04; our models calculate a fair value of $102.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DBD?
Our models span a range for Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated: cautious scenario $65.21, base $102.89, optimistic $140.58 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $63.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DBD?
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $102.89 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.0%, debt of 0.85 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DBD from its 52-week high?
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated trades at $63.04, about 31% below its 52-week high of $90.75 and 15% above the low of $54.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $102.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $63.04, calculated fair value $102.89 (+63%), Quality Score 61/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DBD calculated?
We run Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $102.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated currently trades 63 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $63.04. Our model-based fair value is $102.89, about +63% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($65.21). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($65.21 to $140.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) come from?
Earnings per share at Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated grew +27.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.3 %, EBIT margin −0.4 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +18.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated
How large is the market capitalisation of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)?
The market capitalisation of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated is $3.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated is 0.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)?
Earnings per share at Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated are $2.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)?
The net margin of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated is 2.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)?
The operating margin of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)?
Revenue at Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated is growing +6.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)?
Earnings per share at Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated are growing +815% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) carry?
The net debt of Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated is $787M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026