Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $3.0B
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated
DBD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $93.06 to $54.64 (−41.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −9.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 28% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($68.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
36‑month range $17.08 – $90.75 · fair‑value band $40.98 – $68.30 · the $75.38 price screens above the $54.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) currently trades at $75.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $54.64, implying the stock looks roughly 27.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated generated revenue of $3.9B at a net margin of 2.8%. Revenue grew 6.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.0%. Net debt stands at $787M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $40.98 (bear case) to $68.30 (bull case); at $75.38, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -28%, DBD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($91.43) versus Asset-Based ($21.28). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated engages in the automating, digitizing, and transforming the way people bank and shop worldwide. It operates through two segments, Banking and Retail. The company offers automated teller machines, cash recyclers, dispensers, teller automation tools, and kiosk technologies.
Full company description
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated engages in the automating, digitizing, and transforming the way people bank and shop worldwide. It operates through two segments, Banking and Retail. The company offers automated teller machines, cash recyclers, dispensers, teller automation tools, and kiosk technologies. The Banking segment manufactures and sells branch automation solutions, including DN Series recyclers, ATMs, cash recycling technology, and the DN Teller Cash Recycler and Dual Tower Recycler, as well as provides multi-vendor service capabilities and DN Vynamic software for enhanced connectivity and analytics. It offers professional services such as systems integration, customization, project management, and consulting for integrated solutions. The Retail segment offers modular and integrated electronic point-of-sale (EPOS) systems, self-checkout solutions like DN Series EASY ONE and EASY MAX Kiosk, BEETLE POS systems, and a broad range of peripherals, including printers, scales, and mobile scanners. It also provides the DN Vynamic Retail Platform, which includes industry-specific solutions for fuel, convenience, specialty, fashion, and grocery; and platforms for digital receipts, rewards, data analysis, and compliance, as well as offers maintenance, support, global integration, remote device monitoring, and advisory services utilizing AI for predictive diagnostics and operational efficiencies. In addition, the company provides integrated core operations supporting security and efficient cash management, with offerings including installation, maintenance, managed services, automation, and data intelligence via the Allconnect data engine. The company was formerly known as Diebold, Incorporated and changed its name to Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated in December 2016. Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in North Canton, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated reported revenue of $3.8B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was $94.6M in FY2025.
DBD screens 28% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- Diebold Nixdorf Recognized as an Android™ Enterprise Gold Partner
- Is Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) Undervalued After Its Q2 2026 Sell Off?
- Why Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) Stock Is Falling Today
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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