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Delta Lithium Ltd (DLI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Delta Lithium Ltd A$0.14, price A$0.17, upside -20.0%, quality 23 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000276495

DL Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Delta Lithium Ltd

DLI · AU

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value A$0.1360 · Overvalued (−20%)
!Quality 23/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +124.4 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (3/6)
!Narrow moat 14/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 7 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.9354 A$0.1413 Fair Value A$0.1360 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.1413 – A$0.9354 · fair‑value band A$0.0850 – A$0.1700 · the A$0.1700 price screens above the A$0.1360 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Delta Lithium Limited explores for and develops lithium properties in Western Australia. It holds interest in the Yinnetharra Lithium Project covering an area of more than 3,100 square kilometres, located in the Gascoyne Lithium Province of Western Australia.

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Delta Lithium Limited explores for and develops lithium properties in Western Australia. It holds interest in the Yinnetharra Lithium Project covering an area of more than 3,100 square kilometres, located in the Gascoyne Lithium Province of Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Red Dirt Metals Limited and changed its name to Delta Lithium Limited in April 2023. Delta Lithium Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Delta Lithium Ltd (DLI) currently trades at A$0.1700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1360, implying the stock looks roughly 25.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0850 (bear) to A$0.1700 (bull), the price of A$0.1700 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Delta Lithium Ltd reported revenue of A$1.4M in FY2025 versus A$7.4K in FY2021, a compound +272.1%/yr. Reported net income was −A$3.7M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$133M (≈ $93.3M) · Return on equity −1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.5% · Operating margin −4,271% · Revenue growth (YoY) +519% · Free cash flow −A$31.6M · Net cash A$55.3M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −20%, DLI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0850 Fair Value A$0.1360 Bull A$0.1700
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.1700 A$0.2200 A$0.3300 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.1700 A$0.2200 A$0.3300 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 23/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 5
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 94
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 23
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+189.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+124.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6,315.7% (2020) → −487.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

DLI screens 25% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 238 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/5 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −20% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 519% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.39× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)7 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 20

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Barrick Mining Corporation B $42.49 $65.40 +54%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $260.91 $287.00 +10%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM $145.45 $89.12 −39%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $104.60 $88.63 −15%
Zijin Gold International Company 2259 HK$146.60 HK$83.20 −43%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $27.62 $51.30 +86%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $252.78 $278.06 +10%

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A$0.1360 −25%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Delta Lithium Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DLI

Frequently asked questions

Is Delta Lithium Ltd (DLI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1360 versus a price of A$0.1700, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DLI?
Our model-based fair value for Delta Lithium Ltd is A$0.1360 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1700.
What is the quality score of DLI?
Delta Lithium Ltd has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Delta Lithium Ltd (DLI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1360 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0850, optimistic scenario A$0.1700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Delta Lithium Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1360, about −20% upside versus a price of A$0.1700 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0850, optimistic scenario A$0.1700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Delta Lithium Ltd (DLI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Delta Lithium Ltd it is A$0.1360 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.1700. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Delta Lithium Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, DLI trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1700, fair value A$0.1360, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DLI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1700); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1360). For Delta Lithium Ltd the two are A$0.0340 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Delta Lithium Ltd worth?
The market values Delta Lithium Ltd at about A$133M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1700; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1360 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DLI?
Our models span a range for Delta Lithium Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0850, base A$0.1360, optimistic A$0.1700 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.1700). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Delta Lithium Ltd (DLI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Delta Lithium Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −1.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DLI from its 52-week high?
Delta Lithium Ltd trades at A$0.1700, about 48% below its 52-week high of A$0.3250 and 10% above the low of A$0.1550 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1360 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Delta Lithium Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Delta Lithium Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.1700, calculated fair value A$0.1360 (−20%), Quality Score 23/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DLI calculated?
We run Delta Lithium Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1360, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Delta Lithium Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Delta Lithium Ltd (DLI)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.1700. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1360, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Delta Lithium Ltd right now?
Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0850 to A$0.1700) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Delta Lithium Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Delta Lithium Ltd (DLI)?
The market capitalisation of Delta Lithium Ltd is A$133M (≈ $93.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Delta Lithium Ltd (DLI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Delta Lithium Ltd is −1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Delta Lithium Ltd (DLI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Delta Lithium Ltd is −4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Delta Lithium Ltd (DLI)?
The operating margin of Delta Lithium Ltd is −4,271% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Delta Lithium Ltd (DLI)?
Revenue at Delta Lithium Ltd is growing +519% versus a year earlier (3y avg +189%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Delta Lithium Ltd (DLI) generate?
The free cash flow of Delta Lithium Ltd is −A$31.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Delta Lithium Ltd (DLI) hold?
Delta Lithium Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$55.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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