Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Krispy Kreme Inc stock $0.84, price $4.17, that is 79.9% below the price, quality 29 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.57 – $18.12 · fair‑value band $0.4900 – $1.10 · the $4.17 price screens above the $0.8400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Krispy Kreme, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces doughnuts in the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, Canada, Japan, and internationally. It operates in three segments: U.S., International, and Market Development.
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The company offers doughnut experiences through hot light theater and fresh shops, delivers fresh daily branded cabinets and merchandising units within grocery and convenience stores, quick service restaurants, club memberships, drug stores, and digital channels, including delivery apps.
It also operates Krispy Kreme company-owned shops and franchise shops. The company was formerly known as Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. and changed its name to Krispy Kreme, Inc. in May 2021. Krispy Kreme, Inc. was founded in 1937 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Stock analysis
Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT) currently trades at $4.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8400, 80% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $0.4900 (bear) to $1.10 (bull), the price of $4.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Krispy Kreme Inc reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$516M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $720M Small · P/S ratio 0.51 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5400 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin −5.9% · Return on equity −13.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −0.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 11 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −80%, DNUT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$0.4900Fair Value $0.8400Bull$1.10
Price $4.17 · Downside -79.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $3.0M, on Jun 5, 2026.
BuyBernardo HeesDirector3× since May 26, 2026: 880,190 shares, avg. $3.38$3.0MJun 5, 2026
SaleJoseph J EspositoChief Accounting Officer2,641 shares at $4.28$11,303Nov 11, 2025
Plus 18 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.12/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.4% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.4% (2020) → −30.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−79.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−19.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−5.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−0.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−12.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.39× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.10× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.51× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA18.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 14
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 51
HEALTH (low debt)31· sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)33· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.8400 versus a price of $4.17, about 80% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DNUT?
Our model-based fair value for Krispy Kreme Inc is $0.8400 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.17.
What is the quality score of DNUT?
Krispy Kreme Inc has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.8400 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4900, optimistic scenario $1.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Krispy Kreme Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.8400, about 80% lower versus a price of $4.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.4900, optimistic scenario $1.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT)?
Krispy Kreme Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Krispy Kreme Inc pay a dividend?
Krispy Kreme Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.65% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT)?
Krispy Kreme Inc has a dividend yield of 1.6%.
What is the intrinsic value of Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Krispy Kreme Inc it is $0.8400 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $4.17. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 1 family (Dividend Discount).
Is Krispy Kreme Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, DNUT trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.17, fair value $0.8400, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DNUT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.8400). For Krispy Kreme Inc the two are $3.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Krispy Kreme Inc worth?
The market values Krispy Kreme Inc at about $720M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $4.17; our models calculate a fair value of $0.8400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DNUT?
Our models span a range for Krispy Kreme Inc: cautious scenario $0.4900, base $0.8400, optimistic $1.10 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $4.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Krispy Kreme Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −13.0%, debt of 1.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DNUT from its 52-week high?
Krispy Kreme Inc trades at $4.17, about 11% below its 52-week high of $4.70 and 48% above the low of $2.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.8400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Krispy Kreme Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Krispy Kreme Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $4.17, calculated fair value $0.8400 (−80%), Quality Score 29/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DNUT calculated?
We run Krispy Kreme Inc through 2 models from 1 family: Dividend Discount. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $0.8400 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Krispy Kreme Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $4.17. Our model-based fair value is $0.8400, about 80% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Krispy Kreme Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.4900 to $1.10) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Krispy Kreme Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT)?
The market capitalisation of Krispy Kreme Inc is $720M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Krispy Kreme Inc is 0.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT)?
Earnings per share at Krispy Kreme Inc are $−0.5400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT)?
The dividend yield of Krispy Kreme Inc is 1.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT)?
The net margin of Krispy Kreme Inc is −5.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Krispy Kreme Inc is −13.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Krispy Kreme Inc is −3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT)?
The operating margin of Krispy Kreme Inc is −0.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT)?
Revenue at Krispy Kreme Inc is growing −12.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT) generate?
The free cash flow of Krispy Kreme Inc is −$64.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Krispy Kreme Inc (DNUT) carry?
The net debt of Krispy Kreme Inc is $1.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026
