Krispy Kreme, Inc (DNUT) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $626M

Below-average quality, and screening another 74% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.8800). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.57 – $20.05 · fair‑value band $0.5100 – $0.8800 · the $3.34 price screens above the $0.8800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Krispy Kreme, Inc (DNUT) currently trades at $3.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8800, implying the stock looks roughly 73.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Krispy Kreme, Inc generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of -33.4%. Revenue declined 2.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -58.2%. Net debt stands at $1.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.5100 (bear case) to $0.8800 (bull case); at $3.34, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at -74%, DNUT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($2.55) versus Dividend Discount ($0.8900). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Krispy Kreme, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces doughnuts in the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, Canada, Japan, and internationally. It operates in three segments: U.S., International, and Market Development.

Full company description

Krispy Kreme, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces doughnuts in the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, Canada, Japan, and internationally. It operates in three segments: U.S., International, and Market Development. The company offers doughnut experiences through hot light theater and fresh shops, delivers fresh daily branded cabinets and merchandising units within grocery and convenience stores, quick service restaurants, club memberships, drug stores, and digital channels, including delivery apps. It also operates Krispy Kreme company-owned shops and franchise shops. The company was formerly known as Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. and changed its name to Krispy Kreme, Inc. in May 2021. Krispy Kreme, Inc. was founded in 1937 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Krispy Kreme, Inc reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$516M in FY2025.

DNUT screens 74% overvalued. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →

Peer Group

Grocery Stores · 83 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 25/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.