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Douglas AG (DOU) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Douglas AG stock €24.24, price €8.08, upside +200.0%, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical DE · ISIN DE000BEAU1Y4

DA Douglas AG logo Thin data Nov 6, 2026

Douglas AG

DOU · XETRA
Undervalued, but in a downtrend

The stock costs 67% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value €24.24 · Strongly undervalued
Quality 60/100
Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +7.2 %/yr in EUR)
Generates free cash flow
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 89% above the price (€15.24).
Thin margins · 0.7% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Narrow moat 33/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€23.06 €6.95 Fair Value €24.24 Mar 2024 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

32‑month range €6.95 – €23.06 · fair‑value band €15.24 – €30.30 · the €8.08 price screens below the €24.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Douglas AG retails beauty products in Europe. It operates in five segments: DACHNL, France, Southern Europe, Central Eastern Europe, and Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty. The company offers beauty products, including perfume, skin care, color cosmetics, hair care, and accessories.

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It offers its products under the DOUGLAS, NOCIBÉ, Parfumdreams, and Niche Beauty brands through offline and online stores, and e-commerce platforms. The company was formerly known as Kirk Beauty A GmbH and changed its name to Douglas AG in February 2024.

Douglas AG was founded in 1821 and is headquartered in Düsseldorf, Germany.

Stock analysis

Douglas AG (DOU) currently trades at €8.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €24.24, implying the stock looks roughly 67% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €66.33 per share, and 21 of the 21 models we run sit above the €8.08 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €13.23, and 0 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €15.24 (bear) to €30.30 (bull), the price of €8.08 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Douglas AG reported revenue of €4.6B in FY2025 versus €3.1B in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was €175M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €870M Small · P/E ratio 27.9 · P/S ratio 0.19 · EPS (TTM) €0.2900 · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 3.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 200%, DOU screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €15.24 Fair Value €24.24 Bull €30.30
Price €8.08 · Upside +200.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2900 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF €55.09 €84.27 €123.25 80
Growth DCF €55.27 €80.33 €111.59 79
5Y EBITDA Exit €49.43 €81.45 €118.52 74
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €55.09 €84.27 €123.25 80
5Y Revenue Exit €33.57 €51.49 €73.50 72
5Y EBITDA Exit €49.43 €81.45 €118.52 74
5Y P/E Exit €31.22 €47.04 €63.17 71
10Y Revenue Exit €41.12 €58.73 €81.14 67
10Y EBITDA Exit €51.03 €77.60 €112.43 68
10Y P/E Exit €40.49 €55.92 €73.97 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €11.08 €36.37 €48.63 64
Lynch FV €8.17 €11.68 €15.18 61
PEG = 1.0 €8.17 €11.68 €15.18 57
EPV €12.00 €14.77 €17.06 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple €26.87 €35.83 €44.79 63
P/S Multiple €20.77 €27.69 €34.61 58
EV/EBIT €22.17 €36.63 €51.09 64
EV/EBITDA €40.13 €60.58 €81.03 66
EV/Revenue €8.03 €20.56 €33.09 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €55.27 €80.33 €111.59 79
Rev-Margin DCF €33.57 €52.33 €74.52 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income €9.02 €11.41 €16.50 70
ROIC Compounder €12.67 €17.15 €22.25 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €22.53 €32.18 €41.84 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 56
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 79
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 15
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 97
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 55
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 26
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 9
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 74/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.9% (2020) → 7.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 203 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside +200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 3.4% · Below median
Return on assets 3.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 0.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 3.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −2.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.06× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 27.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.92× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 0.19× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 1.4× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.6× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 50
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 25
PAST (return on equity)13 · sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)47 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 54

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS $140.82 $201.62 +43% vs DOU
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD C$83.20 C$106.00 +27% vs DOU
Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA $644.76 $650.56 +1% vs DOU
Tractor Supply Company TSCO $36.35 $36.33 +0% vs DOU
Best Buy Co BBY $99.63 $94.70 −5% vs DOU
China Tourism Group 601888 ¥54.22 ¥48.19 −11% vs DOU
Five Below, Inc FIVE $240.30 $184.99 −23% vs DOU
Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM $254.06 $164.11 −35% vs DOU
Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY $687.64 $405.93 −41% vs DOU
GameStop Corp GME $25.12 $11.87 −53% vs DOU

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Douglas AG: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Douglas AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DOU

Frequently asked questions

Is Douglas AG (DOU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €24.24 versus a price of €8.08, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DOU?
Our model-based fair value for Douglas AG is €24.24 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €8.08.
What is the quality score of DOU?
Douglas AG has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Douglas AG (DOU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €24.24 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario €15.24, optimistic scenario €30.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Douglas AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €24.24, about +200% upside versus a price of €8.08 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €15.24, optimistic scenario €30.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Douglas AG (DOU)?
Douglas AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Douglas AG (DOU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Douglas AG it is €24.24 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €8.08. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Douglas AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, DOU trades below its calculated fair value: price €8.08, fair value €24.24, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DOU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€8.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€24.24). For Douglas AG the two are €16.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Douglas AG worth?
The market values Douglas AG at about €870M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €8.08; our models calculate a fair value of €24.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DOU?
Our models span a range for Douglas AG: cautious scenario €15.24, base €24.24, optimistic €30.30 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €8.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DOU?
Douglas AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €24.24 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 4.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Douglas AG (DOU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Douglas AG (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 1.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DOU from its 52-week high?
Douglas AG trades at €8.08, about 38% below its 52-week high of €13.02 and 16% above the low of €6.95 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €24.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Douglas AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Douglas AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €8.08, calculated fair value €24.24 (+200%), Quality Score 60/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DOU calculated?
We run Douglas AG through 21 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €24.24 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Douglas AG currently trades 67% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Douglas AG (DOU)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €8.08. Our model-based fair value is €24.24, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Douglas AG right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€15.24). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€15.24 to €30.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Douglas AG

How large is the market capitalisation of Douglas AG (DOU)?
The market capitalisation of Douglas AG is €870M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Douglas AG (DOU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Douglas AG is 0.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Douglas AG (DOU)?
Earnings per share at Douglas AG are €0.2900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Douglas AG (DOU)?
The net margin of Douglas AG is 0.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Douglas AG (DOU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Douglas AG is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Douglas AG (DOU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Douglas AG is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Douglas AG (DOU)?
The operating margin of Douglas AG is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Douglas AG (DOU)?
Revenue at Douglas AG is growing −2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Douglas AG (DOU)?
Earnings per share at Douglas AG are growing −10.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Douglas AG (DOU) generate?
The free cash flow of Douglas AG is €629M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Douglas AG (DOU) carry?
The net debt of Douglas AG is €2.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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