Douglas AG (DOU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Douglas AG €21.93, price €7.31, upside +200.0%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
30‑month range €7.04 – €23.06 · fair‑value band €14.13 – €27.41 · the €7.31 price screens below the €21.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Douglas AG retails beauty products in Europe. It operates in five segments: DACHNL, France, Southern Europe, Central Eastern Europe, and Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty. The company offers beauty products, including perfume, skin care, color cosmetics, hair care, and accessories.
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Douglas AG retails beauty products in Europe. It operates in five segments: DACHNL, France, Southern Europe, Central Eastern Europe, and Parfumdreams/Niche Beauty. The company offers beauty products, including perfume, skin care, color cosmetics, hair care, and accessories. It offers its products under the DOUGLAS, NOCIBÉ, Parfumdreams, and Niche Beauty brands through offline and online stores, and e-commerce platforms. The company was formerly known as Kirk Beauty A GmbH and changed its name to Douglas AG in February 2024. Douglas AG was founded in 1821 and is headquartered in Düsseldorf, Germany.
Stock analysis
Douglas AG (DOU) currently trades at €7.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €21.93, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €61.50 per share, and 22 of the 23 models we run sit above the €7.31 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €5.86, and 1 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €14.13 (bear) to €27.41 (bull), the price of €7.31 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Douglas AG reported revenue of €4.6B in FY2025 versus €3.1B in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was €175M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €867M · P/E ratio 15.2 · P/S ratio 0.58 · EPS (TTM) €0.4800 · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 5.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% · Operating margin −10.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 200%, DOU screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €14.13Fair Value €21.93Bull €27.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.4721 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.9% (2020) → 7.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 230 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−11% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.06× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)15.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.05× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Douglas AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DOU
Frequently asked questions
Is Douglas AG (DOU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €21.93 versus a price of €7.31, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DOU?
Our model-based fair value for Douglas AG is €21.93 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €7.31.
What is the quality score of DOU?
Douglas AG has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Douglas AG (DOU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €21.93 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €14.13, optimistic scenario €27.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Douglas AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €21.93, about +200% upside versus a price of €7.31 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €14.13, optimistic scenario €27.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Douglas AG (DOU)?
Douglas AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Douglas AG (DOU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Douglas AG it is €21.93 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €7.31. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Douglas AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, DOU trades below its calculated fair value: price €7.31, fair value €21.93, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DOU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€7.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€21.93). For Douglas AG the two are €14.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Douglas AG worth?
The market values Douglas AG at about €867M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €7.31; our models calculate a fair value of €21.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DOU?
Our models span a range for Douglas AG: cautious scenario €14.13, base €21.93, optimistic €27.41 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €7.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DOU?
Douglas AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €21.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 4.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Douglas AG (DOU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Douglas AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 5.5%, debt of 1.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DOU from its 52-week high?
Douglas AG trades at €7.31, about 44% below its 52-week high of €13.02 and 4% above the low of €7.04 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €21.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Douglas AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Douglas AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €7.31, calculated fair value €21.93 (+200%), Quality Score 60/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DOU calculated?
We run Douglas AG through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €21.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Douglas AG currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Douglas AG (DOU)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €7.31. Our model-based fair value is €21.93, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Douglas AG right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€14.13). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€14.13 to €27.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Douglas AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Douglas AG (DOU)?
The market capitalisation of Douglas AG is €867M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Douglas AG (DOU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Douglas AG is 0.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Douglas AG (DOU)?
Earnings per share at Douglas AG are €0.4800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Douglas AG (DOU)?
The net margin of Douglas AG is 3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Douglas AG (DOU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Douglas AG is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Douglas AG (DOU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Douglas AG is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Douglas AG (DOU)?
The operating margin of Douglas AG is −10.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Douglas AG (DOU)?
Revenue at Douglas AG is growing +1.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Douglas AG (DOU)?
Earnings per share at Douglas AG are growing −10.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Douglas AG (DOU) generate?
The free cash flow of Douglas AG is €629M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Douglas AG (DOU) carry?
The net debt of Douglas AG is €2.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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