DRDGOLD Limited (DRD) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · ZA · Market cap 28.5B ZAC
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from R26.20 to R20.35 (−22.3%) since Jul 20, 2026. Share price +15.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 49% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R30.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (R14.36 to R30.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R8.56 – R62.33 · fair‑value band R14.36 – R30.41 · the R39.62 price screens above the R20.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
DRDGOLD Limited (DRD) currently trades at R39.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R20.35, implying the stock looks roughly 48.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, DRDGOLD Limited generated revenue of 9.1B ZAR at a net margin of 35.1%. Revenue grew 32.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.3B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R14.36 (bear case) to R30.41 (bull case); at R39.62, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at -49%, DRD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (R41.06) versus Asset-Based (R6.86). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
DRDGOLD Limited, a gold mining company, engages in the extraction of gold from the retreatment of surface mine tailings in South Africa. It sells gold and silver bullion. It is involved in provision care and maintenance services; produces renewable power; employee home loans; and operation of training center.
Full company description
DRDGOLD Limited, a gold mining company, engages in the extraction of gold from the retreatment of surface mine tailings in South Africa. It sells gold and silver bullion. It is involved in provision care and maintenance services; produces renewable power; employee home loans; and operation of training center. The company was formerly known as Durban Roodepoort Deep Limited and changed its name to DRDGOLD Limited in 2004. The company was incorporated in 1895 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. DRDGOLD Limited is a subsidiary of Sibanye Gold Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
DRDGOLD Limited reported revenue of R7.9B in FY2025 versus R5.3B in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was R2.2B in FY2025, compounding +11.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +13.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −9.7 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
DRD screens 49% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Peer Group
Gold · 248 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $112.82 | +1% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥32.21 | ¥39.42 | +22% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$257.82 | C$154.33 | -40% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $41.23 | $50.66 | +23% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$187.84 | C$52.47 | -72% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$334.84 | C$97.76 | -71% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $97.92 | $88.63 | -9% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $40.73 | $59.06 | +45% |
| Zijin Gold International Company 2259 | HK$135.60 | HK$96.81 | -29% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $27.48 | $34.62 | +26% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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