DRDGOLD Limited (DRD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of DRDGOLD Limited ZAR 38.08, price ZAR 40.30, upside -5.5%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R8.56 – R62.33 · fair‑value band R26.76 – R51.72 · the R40.30 price screens above the R38.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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DRDGOLD Limited, a gold mining company, engages in the extraction of gold from the retreatment of surface mine tailings in South Africa. It sells gold and silver bullion. It is involved in provision care and maintenance services; produces renewable power; employee home loans; and operation of training center.
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DRDGOLD Limited, a gold mining company, engages in the extraction of gold from the retreatment of surface mine tailings in South Africa. It sells gold and silver bullion. It is involved in provision care and maintenance services; produces renewable power; employee home loans; and operation of training center. The company was formerly known as Durban Roodepoort Deep Limited and changed its name to DRDGOLD Limited in 2004. The company was incorporated in 1895 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. DRDGOLD Limited is a subsidiary of Sibanye Gold Limited.
Stock analysis
DRDGOLD Limited (DRD) currently trades at R40.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R38.08, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R41.06 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the R40.30 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at R6.31, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R26.76 (bear) to R51.72 (bull), the price of R40.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
DRDGOLD Limited reported revenue of 7.9B ZAC in FY2025 versus 5.3B ZAC in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2B ZAC in FY2025, compounding +11.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 28.5B ZAC · P/E ratio 15.6 · P/S ratio 4.43 · EPS (TTM) R2.59 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 28.5% · Return on equity 34.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −6%, DRD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R26.76Fair Value R38.08Bull R51.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.59 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+26.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.1% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+17.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26.2% vs 32.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 12%
2025 sits 75% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−31.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −33.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 232 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−5.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)34.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets20.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)35.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)46.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth32.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "DRDGOLD Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DRD
Frequently asked questions
Is DRDGOLD Limited (DRD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R38.08 versus a price of R40.30, about −6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of DRD?
Our model-based fair value for DRDGOLD Limited is R38.08 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R40.30.
What is the quality score of DRD?
DRDGOLD Limited has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R38.08 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R26.76, optimistic scenario R51.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the DRDGOLD Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R38.08, about −6% upside versus a price of R40.30 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R26.76, optimistic scenario R51.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
DRDGOLD Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.1B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does DRDGOLD Limited pay a dividend?
DRDGOLD Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, DRDGOLD Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -31.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DRD use?
Our models discount DRDGOLD Limited at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For DRDGOLD Limited that is -31.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has DRDGOLD Limited (DRD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at DRDGOLD Limited grew +13.5 % a year. The price currently implies -31.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of DRDGOLD Limited (DRD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into DRDGOLD Limited (-31.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 35.98 %: that much free cash flow DRDGOLD Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For DRDGOLD Limited it is R38.08 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of R40.30. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is DRDGOLD Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, DRD trades above its calculated fair value: price R40.30, fair value R38.08, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DRD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R40.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R38.08). For DRDGOLD Limited the two are R2.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is DRDGOLD Limited worth?
The market values DRDGOLD Limited at about 28.5B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is R40.30; our models calculate a fair value of R38.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DRD?
Our models span a range for DRDGOLD Limited: cautious scenario R26.76, base R38.08, optimistic R51.72 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price R40.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DRD?
DRDGOLD Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R38.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.0.
What is the PEG ratio of DRD?
The PEG ratio of DRDGOLD Limited is 0.01 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
Balance-sheet figures for DRDGOLD Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 34.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DRD from its 52-week high?
DRDGOLD Limited trades at R40.30, about 35% below its 52-week high of R62.33 and 24% above the low of R32.46 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R38.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to DRDGOLD Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is DRDGOLD Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price R40.30, calculated fair value R38.08 (−6%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DRD calculated?
We run DRDGOLD Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R38.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. DRDGOLD Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R40.30. Our model-based fair value is R38.08, about −6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with DRDGOLD Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (R26.76 to R51.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of DRDGOLD Limited (DRD) come from?
Earnings per share at DRDGOLD Limited grew +33.6 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.6 %, EBIT margin +14.4 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +10.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of DRDGOLD Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
The market capitalisation of DRDGOLD Limited is 28.5B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of DRDGOLD Limited is 4.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
Earnings per share at DRDGOLD Limited are R2.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
The dividend yield of DRDGOLD Limited is 0.3% (payout 4.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
The net margin of DRDGOLD Limited is 28.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of DRDGOLD Limited is 34.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of DRDGOLD Limited is 17.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
The operating margin of DRDGOLD Limited is 46.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
Revenue at DRDGOLD Limited is growing +32.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at DRDGOLD Limited (DRD)?
Earnings per share at DRDGOLD Limited are growing +97.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does DRDGOLD Limited (DRD) hold?
DRDGOLD Limited holds more cash than debt, 1.3B ZAC net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 27, 2026