Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Daiwa Securities Group Inc stock $6.90, price $10.97, upside -37.1%, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.10 – $12.19 · fair‑value band $5.17 – $8.62 · the $10.97 price screens above the $6.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Daiwa Securities Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the financial and capital markets in Japan and internationally. It operates through Wealth Management, Asset Management, Global Markets & Investment Banking segments.
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The Wealth Management segment offers wrap and investment trust administration services, as well as for individual investors and unlisted companies. The Asset Management segment provides securities, real estate, and alternative asset management services.
The Global Markets & Investment Banking segment offers securities sales and trading of for institutional investors, etc.; global investment banking services, which conducts underwriting of securities issued by industrial corporations, financial corporations, etc.; and merger and acquisition advisory services.
The Other segment provides research, consulting, and system services. The company was formerly known as Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. and changed its name to Daiwa Securities Group Inc. in 1999. Daiwa Securities Group Inc. was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY) currently trades at $10.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.90, 37.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 26 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the data coverage at medium.
Scenario range: $5.17 (bear) to $8.62 (bull), the price of $10.97 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR reported revenue of ¥1.6T in FY2026 versus ¥633B in FY2022, a compound +25.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥186B in FY2026, compounding +18.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $15.4B Large · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 1.41 · EPS (TTM) $0.9200 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 11.8% · Return on equity 11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −37%, DSEEY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.17Fair Value $6.90Bull$8.62
Price $10.97 · Upside -37.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2890 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.0% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +15.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.0% vs 6.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 57% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (82 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: The capital markets firm benefits from a debt-free structure and ongoing wealth management expansion but lacks evidence of a durable moat and shows gaps in operational resilience.
Main risk: Reliance on external vendors for client inquiries creates security vulnerabilities that could undermine client trust and operational stability.
Daiwa Securities handles customer inquiries through an external vendor whose server was recently accessed without authorization, potentially exposing names, emails and account numbers for around 110,000 clients. The firm continues to expand its wealth management and total asset management model via acquisitions and alliances. Does greater reliance on such partners support more stable client relationships, or does it reveal persistent gaps in operational resilience?
Compare Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 455 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−37.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.0% · Above median
Return on assets0.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)20.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)30.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)57.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.7% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.36× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.53× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow5.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG2.76× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 74
PAST (return on equity)44· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)74· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DSEEY
Frequently asked questions
Is Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.90 versus a price of $10.97, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DSEEY?
Our model-based fair value for Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR is $6.90 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.97.
What is the quality score of DSEEY?
Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.90 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.17, optimistic scenario $8.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.90, about −37% upside versus a price of $10.97 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.17, optimistic scenario $8.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥958B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR pay a dividend?
Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 3.72% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.9 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DSEEY use?
Our models discount Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR grew +21.9 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.84 %: that much free cash flow Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR it is $6.90 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $10.97. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, DSEEY trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.97, fair value $6.90, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DSEEY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.90). For Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR the two are $4.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR worth?
The market values Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR at about $15.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $10.97; our models calculate a fair value of $6.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DSEEY?
Our models span a range for Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR: cautious scenario $5.17, base $6.90, optimistic $8.62 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $10.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DSEEY?
Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 1.4, P/S 2.5.
What is the PEG ratio of DSEEY?
The PEG ratio of Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR is 2.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 11.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DSEEY from its 52-week high?
Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR trades at $10.97, about 10% below its 52-week high of $12.19 and 51% above the low of $7.24 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $10.97, calculated fair value $6.90 (−37%), Quality Score 74/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DSEEY calculated?
We run Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $10.97. Our model-based fair value is $6.90, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR right now?
A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY) come from?
Earnings per share at Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR grew +4.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.2 %, EBIT margin −5.6 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
The market capitalisation of Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR is $15.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR is 1.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
Earnings per share at Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR are $0.9200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
The dividend yield of Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR is 3.7% (payout 44.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
The net margin of Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR is 11.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
The operating margin of Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR is 30.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
Revenue at Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR is growing +57.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY)?
Earnings per share at Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR are growing +82.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Daiwa Securities Group Inc (DSEEY) hold?
Daiwa Securities Group Inc ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥10.2T net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 22, 2026