Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ellington Residential Mortgage $3.70, price $4.21, upside -12.0%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.12 – $5.89 · fair‑value band $2.39 – $5.76 · the $4.21 price screens above the $3.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Ellington Credit Company, a closed-end management investment company, focuses on generating current yields and risk-adjusted total returns by investing primarily in collateralized loan obligations. It invests in mezzanine debt and equity tranches.
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Ellington Credit Company, a closed-end management investment company, focuses on generating current yields and risk-adjusted total returns by investing primarily in collateralized loan obligations. It invests in mezzanine debt and equity tranches. The company was formerly known as Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT and changed its name to Ellington Credit Company in April 2024. Ellington Credit Company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Old Greenwich, Connecticut.
Stock analysis
Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN) currently trades at $4.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.70, implying the stock looks roughly 13.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Scenario range: $2.39 (bear) to $5.76 (bull), the price of $4.21 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ellington Residential Mortgage reported revenue of $42.6M in FY2025 versus −$557K in FY2021. Reported net income was −$14.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $158M · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 3.77 · EPS (TTM) $0.2800 · Net margin −33.9% · Return on equity −20.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.5% · Operating margin 68.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −12%, EARN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.39Fair Value $3.70Bull $5.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.43/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.1% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
77.5% (2020) → −19.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Ellington Residential Mortgage with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 657 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−12% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−81% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)68% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−19% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)22.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.70 versus a price of $4.21, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EARN?
Our model-based fair value for Ellington Residential Mortgage is $3.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.21.
What is the quality score of EARN?
Ellington Residential Mortgage has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.39, optimistic scenario $5.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ellington Residential Mortgage stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.70, about −12% upside versus a price of $4.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.39, optimistic scenario $5.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN)?
Ellington Residential Mortgage reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $41.6M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ellington Residential Mortgage it is $3.70 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $4.21. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ellington Residential Mortgage stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, EARN trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.21, fair value $3.70, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EARN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.70). For Ellington Residential Mortgage the two are $0.5060 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ellington Residential Mortgage worth?
The market values Ellington Residential Mortgage at about $158M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $4.21; our models calculate a fair value of $3.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EARN?
Our models span a range for Ellington Residential Mortgage: cautious scenario $2.39, base $3.70, optimistic $5.76 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $4.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EARN?
Ellington Residential Mortgage trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 3.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ellington Residential Mortgage (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −20.3%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EARN from its 52-week high?
Ellington Residential Mortgage trades at $4.21, about 15% below its 52-week high of $4.98 and 8% above the low of $3.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ellington Residential Mortgage?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ellington Residential Mortgage stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $4.21, calculated fair value $3.70 (−12%), Quality Score 45/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EARN calculated?
We run Ellington Residential Mortgage through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Ellington Residential Mortgage itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $4.21. Our model-based fair value is $3.70, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ellington Residential Mortgage right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.39 to $5.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Ellington Residential Mortgage
How large is the market capitalisation of Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN)?
The market capitalisation of Ellington Residential Mortgage is $158M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ellington Residential Mortgage is 3.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN)?
Earnings per share at Ellington Residential Mortgage are $0.2800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN)?
The net margin of Ellington Residential Mortgage is −33.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ellington Residential Mortgage is −20.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ellington Residential Mortgage is −0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN)?
The operating margin of Ellington Residential Mortgage is 68.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN)?
Revenue at Ellington Residential Mortgage is growing −19.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN)?
Earnings per share at Ellington Residential Mortgage are growing +69.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN) generate?
The free cash flow of Ellington Residential Mortgage is $541M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN) carry?
The net debt of Ellington Residential Mortgage is $163M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026