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Earthstahl & Alloys Ltd (EARTH) Fair Value & Analysis

IN · Market cap ₹184M

EA Earthstahl & Alloys Ltd EARTH · BSE
Price₹14.20
Fair Value₹34.78
Upside+144.9%
Quality50/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -8.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Narrow moat 0/100
Evidence: Low Range ₹20.72 – ₹48.84 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 7 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Share price −6.5% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 145% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹20.72). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (₹20.72 to ₹48.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

₹73.66 ₹13.69 Fair Value ₹34.78 Feb 2023 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

42‑month range ₹13.69 – ₹73.66 · fair‑value band ₹20.72 – ₹48.84 · the ₹14.20 price screens below the ₹34.78 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Earthstahl & Alloys Ltd (EARTH) currently trades at ₹14.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹34.78, implying the stock looks roughly 144.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality). Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Earthstahl & Alloys Ltd generated revenue of ₹616M at a net margin of -8.0%. Revenue declined 22.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -14.0%. Net debt stands at ₹148M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ₹20.72 (bear case) to ₹48.84 (bull case); at ₹14.20, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ₹19.71 ₹26.06 ₹35.51 80
Rev-Margin DCF ₹21.21 ₹34.27 ₹50.32 74
NCAV (Graham) ₹13.30 ₹17.82 ₹26.59 50
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ₹19.05 ₹25.81 ₹36.69 38
5Y Revenue Exit ₹21.21 ₹33.54 ₹51.45 39
10Y Revenue Exit ₹19.40 ₹27.40 ₹35.89 36
Multiples
EV/Revenue ₹25.81 ₹39.88 ₹53.94 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ₹13.30 ₹17.82 ₹26.59 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ₹19.71 ₹26.06 ₹35.51 80
Rev-Margin DCF ₹21.21 ₹34.27 ₹50.32 74

Widest divergence: Multiples (₹39.88) versus Asset-Based (₹17.82). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) ₹616M
Revenue growth (YoY) -22.3%
Net margin -8.0%
Return on equity -14.0%
Free cash flow ₹44.1M FY2026
Operating margin -7.1%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ₹-4.00
EPS growth (YoY) -36.0%
Net debt ₹148M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 13
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 59
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 7
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Earthstahl & Alloys Ltd reported revenue of ₹616M in FY2026 versus ₹489M in FY2022, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was −₹49.0M in FY2026.

Growth Quality 18/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
₹616M
Latest YoY
−14.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−12.5%
Revenue +6.0%/yr
FY22 ₹489M
FY23 ₹918M
FY24 ₹879M
FY25 ₹723M
FY26 ₹616M
Net income
FY22 ₹74.9M
FY23 ₹75.1M
FY24 ₹18.9M
FY25 ₹5.3M
FY26 −₹49.0M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Earthstahl & Alloys Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EARTH

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 0
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST0 · sector 0
HEALTH87 · sector 0
DIVIDEND67 · sector 0

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Earthstahl & Alloys Ltd (EARTH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹34.78 versus a price of ₹14.20, about +145% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EARTH?
Our model-based fair value for Earthstahl & Alloys Ltd is ₹34.78 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹14.20.
What is the quality score of EARTH?
Earthstahl & Alloys Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Earthstahl & Alloys Ltd (EARTH)?
Earthstahl & Alloys Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹616M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of EARTH?
The net profit margin of Earthstahl & Alloys Ltd is about -8.0%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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