Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Emerge Commerce Ltd stock C$0.08, price C$0.08, upside +7.5%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 20 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.0100 – C$0.8700 · fair‑value band C$0.0629 – C$0.0983 · the C$0.0750 price screens below the C$0.0806 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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EMERGE Commerce Ltd. owns and operates a portfolio of e-commerce marketplaces and subscription services in Canada and the United States.
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The company's e-commerce brands include truLOCAL.ca, UnderPar.com, Tee 2 Green, Viral Loops, and JustGolfStuff.ca. The company operates e-commerce brands and technologies through D2C and B2B, spanning its grocery, golf, and referral marketing businesses.
EMERGE Commerce Ltd. is based in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM) currently trades at C$0.0750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.0806, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of C$0.5150 per share, and 9 of the 19 models we run sit above the C$0.0750 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at C$0.0250, and 10 of the 19 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$0.0629 (bear) to C$0.0983 (bull), the price of C$0.0750 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Emerge Commerce Ltd reported revenue of C$27.7M in FY2025 versus C$34.8M in FY2021, a compound −5.6%/yr. Reported net income was C$279K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$13.5M (≈ $9.5M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.43 · Net margin −0.9% · Return on equity −17,453% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 9.3% · Revenue (TTM) C$29.2M · Revenue growth (YoY) +7.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at 8%, ECOM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$0.0629Fair Value C$0.0806BullC$0.0983
Price C$0.0750 · Upside +7.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+43.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.1%
’19
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’22
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’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−48.5% (2020) → 1.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−17.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −19.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 100 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside+7.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets2.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−0.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)9.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
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Is Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.0806 versus a price of C$0.0750, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ECOM?
Our model-based fair value for Emerge Commerce Ltd is C$0.0806 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$0.0750.
What is the quality score of ECOM?
Emerge Commerce Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.0806 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.0629, optimistic scenario C$0.0983. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Emerge Commerce Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.0806, about +8% upside versus a price of C$0.0750 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario C$0.0629, optimistic scenario C$0.0983. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM)?
Emerge Commerce Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$29.2M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Emerge Commerce Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -17.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.6 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ECOM use?
Our models discount Emerge Commerce Ltd at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Emerge Commerce Ltd that is -17.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Emerge Commerce Ltd grew +24.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -17.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Emerge Commerce Ltd (-17.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.72 %: that much free cash flow Emerge Commerce Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Emerge Commerce Ltd it is C$0.0806 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of C$0.0750. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Emerge Commerce Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, ECOM trades below its calculated fair value: price C$0.0750, fair value C$0.0806, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ECOM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$0.0750); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.0806). For Emerge Commerce Ltd the two are C$0.0056 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Emerge Commerce Ltd worth?
The market values Emerge Commerce Ltd at about C$13.5M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is C$0.0750; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.0806 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ECOM?
Our models span a range for Emerge Commerce Ltd: cautious scenario C$0.0629, base C$0.0806, optimistic C$0.0983 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price C$0.0750). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Emerge Commerce Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ECOM from its 52-week high?
Emerge Commerce Ltd trades at C$0.0750, about 52% below its 52-week high of C$0.1550 and 15% above the low of C$0.0650 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.0806 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Emerge Commerce Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, Prosus N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Emerge Commerce Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price C$0.0750, calculated fair value C$0.0806 (+8%), Quality Score 55/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ECOM calculated?
We run Emerge Commerce Ltd through 20 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$0.0806 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Emerge Commerce Ltd currently trades 7% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was C$0.0750. Our model-based fair value is C$0.0806, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Emerge Commerce Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Emerge Commerce Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM)?
The market capitalisation of Emerge Commerce Ltd is C$13.5M (≈ $9.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Emerge Commerce Ltd is 0.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM)?
The net margin of Emerge Commerce Ltd is −0.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Emerge Commerce Ltd is −17,453% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Emerge Commerce Ltd is −8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM)?
The operating margin of Emerge Commerce Ltd is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM)?
Revenue at Emerge Commerce Ltd is growing +7.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM)?
Earnings per share at Emerge Commerce Ltd are growing −19.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Emerge Commerce Ltd (ECOM) carry?
The net debt of Emerge Commerce Ltd is C$3.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 8, 2026