Encore Capital Group (ECPG) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.7B
Encore Capital Group
ECPG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price +14.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 37% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($116.79). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.13 – $100.20 · fair‑value band $116.79 – $161.12 · the $100.20 price screens below the $137.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
Encore Capital Group (ECPG) currently trades at $100.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $137.49, implying the stock looks roughly 37.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Encore Capital Group generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of 16.0%. Revenue grew 21.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 32.0%. Net debt stands at $4.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $116.79 (bear case) to $161.12 (bull case); at $100.20, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 181% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -41% fair-value upside, at 37%, ECPG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($139.63) versus DCF Models ($25.02). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Encore Capital Group, Inc., a specialty finance company, provides debt recovery solutions and other related services for consumers across financial assets worldwide.
Full company description
Encore Capital Group, Inc., a specialty finance company, provides debt recovery solutions and other related services for consumers across financial assets worldwide. The company purchases portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at discounts to face value, as well as manages them by working with individuals as they repay their obligations and works toward financial recovery. It is also involved in the provision of debt servicing, such as early stage collection, business process outsourcing, and contingent collection services. In addition, the company engages in debt servicing and other portfolio management services to credit originator for non-performing loans. Further, it offers credit management services. Encore Capital Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Encore Capital Group reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was $257M in FY2025, compounding −7.5%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Encore Capital Group Announces Redemption of All Outstanding 4.00% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2029
- Lazard, Corpay, and Encore Capital Group Shares Plummet, What You Need To Know
- Encore Capital Group to Announce Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 5
- Encore Capital Group (ECPG) Stock Looks Cheap On Earnings Yet Pricey On Broader Value
Peer Group
Credit Services · 333 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa Inc V | $348.97 | $204.19 | -41% |
| Mastercard Incorporated MA | $537.70 | $221.87 | -59% |
| American Express Company AXP | $358.44 | $206.40 | -42% |
| Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE | ₹1,056 | ₹397.61 | -62% |
| Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN | ₹1,024 | ₹553.83 | -46% |
| Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company CHOLAFIN | ₹1,808 | ₹796.52 | -56% |
| Tata Capital Limited TATACAP | ₹360.60 | ₹229.85 | -36% |
| Power Finance Corporation PFC | ₹405.10 | ₹810.20 | +100% |
| Muthoot Finance Limited MUTHOOTFIN | ₹3,129 | ₹3,463 | +11% |
| Indian Railway Finance Corporation IRFC | ₹88.41 | ₹69.72 | -21% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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