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Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Encore Capital Group Inc stock $125, price $114, upside +9.8%, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

9 models, one by oneBear $80.64 to bull $196.78 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 67/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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Financial Services US

Some data Nov 6, 2026

Encore Capital Group Inc

ECPG · US

Fairly valued, in an uptrend

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Quality 67/100

Solidly profitable · 15.9% net margin (TTM)

Ranks above peers (8/13)

Wide moat 73/100

Upbeat coverage

Costs just 8.7 times its yearly profit.

Fair value $125.35 · Fairly valued (+9.8%)

Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +3.3 %/yr in USD)

Insiders sold $1.1M (6M)

Some data

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $27.13 – $126.17 · fair‑value band $80.64 – $196.78 · the $114.14 price screens below the $125.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Encore Capital Group, Inc., a specialty finance company, provides debt recovery solutions and other related services for consumers across financial assets worldwide.

Show moreShow less

The company purchases portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at discounts to face value, as well as manages them by working with individuals as they repay their obligations and works toward financial recovery.

It is also involved in the provision of debt servicing, such as early stage collection, business process outsourcing, and contingent collection services. In addition, the company engages in debt servicing and other portfolio management services to credit originator for non-performing loans.

Further, it offers credit management services. Encore Capital Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Stock analysis

Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) currently trades at $114.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $125.35, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.9%).

Valuation

Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $247.35 per share, and 5 of the 9 models we run sit above the $114.14 price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $54.23, and 4 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $80.64 (bear) to $196.78 (bull), the price of $114.14 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Encore Capital Group Inc reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was $257M in FY2025, compounding −7.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.6B Mid · P/E ratio 8.7 · P/S ratio 1.37 · EPS (TTM) $13.19 · Net margin 15.9% · Return on equity 30.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 38.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 142% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 10%, ECPG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $80.64 Fair Value $125.35 Bull $196.78

Price $114.14 · Upside +9.8%

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($11.27 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Best data coverage

Owner Earnings $80.64 $252.93 $517.91 70

Growth DCF $10.72 $125.35 $292.74 69

Rev-Margin DCF n/a $47.57 $157.30 69

All 9 models by family

DCF Models

Owner Earnings $80.64 $252.93 $517.91 70

5Y P/E Exit n/a $40.00 $131.01 68

10Y P/E Exit n/a $54.23 $158.06 61

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $82.34 $361.37 $494.53 64

Lynch FV $93.33 $133.33 $173.32 61

Multiples

P/E Multiple $118.07 $157.42 $196.78 63

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $10.72 $125.35 $292.74 69

Rev-Margin DCF n/a $47.57 $157.30 69

Economic Profit

Residual Income $66.39 $89.91 $163.10 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 50

How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality Growth 96

Are margins and returns getting better?

Cashflow 42

Do the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strength 10

Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

Investment 90

Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low Volatility 40

How calm the share price moves, does not count

Price momentum 86

Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week high 92

Distance to the 52-week high, does not count

New shares 98

Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.1M and none bought.

SaleJohn YungPresident, Intl. and Cabot2× since Nov 26, 2025: 5,000 shares, avg. $75.44$377,180Jun 11, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAndrew Eric AschSVP, General Counsel9,085 shares at $81.52$740,641Jun 10, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRyan B BellPresident, MCM2× since Dec 10, 2025: 10,000 shares, avg. $65.52$655,185Mar 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleLaura OlleDirector1,423 shares at $52.79$75,120Dec 3, 202510b5-1 plan

Plus 10 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 61/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Revenue growth 1 year

+33.9%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+8.0%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+3.3%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.5% a year

Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+16.8%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.

+19.6%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+19.6%

Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.3% vs 14.0%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 35%

Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

Watch ECPG, get fair value alerts →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype

Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

Moelis, Lazard, Sezzle, Affirm, and Encore Capital Group Stocks Trade Down, What You Need To Know Yahoo Finance · Oct 14, 2026
Encore Capital Group (ECPG) As Risk Concerns Meet An Undervalued Narrative Yahoo Finance · Oct 14, 2026

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 283 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 67 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside +9.8% · Below median

Profitability

Return on equity (12 months) 30.5% · Top 25%

Return on assets 4.8% · Above median

Net margin (12 months) 15.9% · Below median

Operating margin (12 months) 38.0% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 11.3% · Below median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 4.10× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 8.7× · Cheaper than median

P/B 2.66× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.

P/S (12 months) 1.37× · Cheapest 25%

Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 20.5× · Priciest 25%

EV/EBITDA 8.7× · Cheaper than median

PEG 0.17× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)46 · sector 59

FUTURE (revenue growth)57 · sector 57

PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 39

HEALTH (low debt)–

DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 63

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
Synchrony Financial, SYF	$73.74	$141.92	+92%	vs ECPG
PayPal Holdings PYPL	$59.24	$107.45	+81%	vs ECPG
Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN	₹961.15	₹1,309	+36%	vs ECPG
Affirm Holdings AFRM	$68.11	$76.63	+13%	vs ECPG
Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE	₹1,088	₹1,055	−3%	vs ECPG
American Express Company AXP	$320.99	$210.02	−35%	vs ECPG
Visa Inc V	$422.65	$242.87	−43%	vs ECPG
Mastercard Incorporated MA	$652.70	$360.13	−45%	vs ECPG
Capital One Financial Corporation COF	$201.87	$106.81	−47%	vs ECPG
SoFi Technologies, Inc SOFI	$16.21	$5.51	−66%	vs ECPG

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Frequently asked questions

Is Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $125.35 versus a price of $114.14, about +10% upside (fairly valued).

What is the fair value of ECPG?

Our model-based fair value for Encore Capital Group Inc is $125.35 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $114.14.

What is the quality score of ECPG?

Encore Capital Group Inc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $125.35 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $80.64, optimistic scenario $196.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Encore Capital Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $125.35, about +10% upside versus a price of $114.14 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $80.64, optimistic scenario $196.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)?

Encore Capital Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Encore Capital Group Inc it is $125.35 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $114.14. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).

Is Encore Capital Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Nov 6, 2026, ECPG trades below its calculated fair value: price $114.14, fair value $125.35, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of ECPG?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($114.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($125.35). For Encore Capital Group Inc the two are $11.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Encore Capital Group Inc worth?

The market values Encore Capital Group Inc at about $2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $114.14; our models calculate a fair value of $125.35 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ECPG?

Our models span a range for Encore Capital Group Inc: cautious scenario $80.64, base $125.35, optimistic $196.78 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $114.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of ECPG?

Encore Capital Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $125.35 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 7.0 (reported for FY2025: 10.5). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 6.2. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 2.7, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 8.7.

What is the PEG ratio of ECPG?

The PEG ratio of Encore Capital Group Inc is 0.17 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.

How solid is the balance sheet of Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)?

Balance-sheet figures for Encore Capital Group Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 30.5%, debt of 4.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is ECPG from its 52-week high?

Encore Capital Group Inc trades at $114.14, about 10% below its 52-week high of $126.17 and 142% above the low of $47.22 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $125.35 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Encore Capital Group Inc?

From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Encore Capital Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $114.14, calculated fair value $125.35 (+10%), Quality Score 67/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of ECPG calculated?

We run Encore Capital Group Inc through 9 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $125.35 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Encore Capital Group Inc currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)?

The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $114.14. Our model-based fair value is $125.35, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Encore Capital Group Inc right now?

The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($80.64 to $196.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Encore Capital Group Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)?

The market capitalisation of Encore Capital Group Inc is $2.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Encore Capital Group Inc is 1.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)?

Earnings per share at Encore Capital Group Inc are $13.19 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)?

The net margin of Encore Capital Group Inc is 15.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Encore Capital Group Inc is 30.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Encore Capital Group Inc is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)?

The operating margin of Encore Capital Group Inc is 38.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)?

Revenue at Encore Capital Group Inc is growing +11.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG)?

Earnings per share at Encore Capital Group Inc are growing +12.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) generate?

The free cash flow of Encore Capital Group Inc is $127M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) carry?

The net debt of Encore Capital Group Inc is $4.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 31.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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