Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Endeavour Group Limited $2.97, price $1.91, upside +55.5%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Endeavour Group Limited for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.88 – $4.29 · fair‑value band $2.15 – $4.26 · the $1.91 price screens below the $2.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Endeavour Group in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Endeavour Group is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Endeavour Group Limited engages in the retail drinks and hospitality businesses in Australia. It operates through Retail, Hotels, and Other segments. The company operates stores that procure, manufacture, and sell drinks; and hotels that provide on-premises bars, food and drinks, wagering, accommodation, live entertainment, and gaming services.
Show more
Endeavour Group Limited engages in the retail drinks and hospitality businesses in Australia. It operates through Retail, Hotels, and Other segments. The company operates stores that procure, manufacture, and sell drinks; and hotels that provide on-premises bars, food and drinks, wagering, accommodation, live entertainment, and gaming services. It operates under the Dan Murphy's, BWS, Pinnacle, Nightcap, ALH, DELIVERY, FULFILLED, LANGTONS, MixIn, Paragon Wine Estates, endeavourX, and other brand names. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF) currently trades at $1.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.97, implying the stock looks roughly 35.7% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $3.40 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the $1.91 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.00, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.15 (bear) to $4.26 (bull), the price of $1.91 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Endeavour Group Limited reported revenue of A$12.1B in FY2025 versus A$11.6B in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$426M in FY2025, compounding −1.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.4B · P/E ratio 12.7 · P/S ratio 0.45 · EPS (TTM) $0.1500 · Dividend yield 9.6% · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 56%, EDVGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.15Fair Value $2.97Bull $4.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 2%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.1% a year for the price and −1.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (41 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Endeavour Group Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 92 stocks
P/B1.60× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Endeavour Group Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EDVGF
Frequently asked questions
Is Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.97 versus a price of $1.91, about +56% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EDVGF?
Our model-based fair value for Endeavour Group Limited is $2.97 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.91.
What is the quality score of EDVGF?
Endeavour Group Limited has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.97 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.15, optimistic scenario $4.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Endeavour Group Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.97, about +56% upside versus a price of $1.91 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.15, optimistic scenario $4.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
Endeavour Group Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$12.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Endeavour Group Limited pay a dividend?
Endeavour Group Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.58% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Endeavour Group Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -9.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EDVGF use?
Our models discount Endeavour Group Limited at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Endeavour Group Limited that is -9.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Endeavour Group Limited grew +23.8 % a year. The price currently implies -9.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Endeavour Group Limited (-9.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.60 %: that much free cash flow Endeavour Group Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Endeavour Group Limited it is $2.97 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.91. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Endeavour Group Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, EDVGF trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.91, fair value $2.97, a gap of about +56% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EDVGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.97). For Endeavour Group Limited the two are $1.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Endeavour Group Limited worth?
The market values Endeavour Group Limited at about $3.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.91; our models calculate a fair value of $2.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EDVGF?
Our models span a range for Endeavour Group Limited: cautious scenario $2.15, base $2.97, optimistic $4.26 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EDVGF?
Endeavour Group Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.97 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Endeavour Group Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 0.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EDVGF from its 52-week high?
Endeavour Group Limited trades at $1.91, about 27% below its 52-week high of $2.63 and 1% above the low of $1.88 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Endeavour Group Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Endeavour Group Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.91, calculated fair value $2.97 (+56%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EDVGF calculated?
We run Endeavour Group Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Endeavour Group Limited currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.91. Our model-based fair value is $2.97, about +56% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Endeavour Group Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.15). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($2.15 to $4.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Endeavour Group Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
The market capitalisation of Endeavour Group Limited is $3.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Endeavour Group Limited is 0.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
Earnings per share at Endeavour Group Limited are $0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
The dividend yield of Endeavour Group Limited is 9.6% (payout 122%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
The net margin of Endeavour Group Limited is 3.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Endeavour Group Limited is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Endeavour Group Limited is 7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
The operating margin of Endeavour Group Limited is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
Revenue at Endeavour Group Limited is growing +0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF)?
Earnings per share at Endeavour Group Limited are growing −17.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Endeavour Group Limited (EDVGF) carry?
The net debt of Endeavour Group Limited is A$5.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Endeavour Group Limited in the live analysis
One click puts Endeavour Group Limited on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026