Excelerate Energy Inc (EE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Excelerate Energy Inc $4.94, price $32.54, upside -84.8%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $4.94 · Strongly overvalued (−84.8%)
!Quality 38/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue YoY +44.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.0% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.0% dividend yield · Well covered
!Trails peers(2/10)
!Moderate moat48/100
!Insider activity45/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
54‑month range $13.28 – $42.70 · fair‑value band $3.71 – $6.18 · the $32.54 price screens above the $4.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Excelerate Energy, Inc. owns and operates liquefied natural gas (LNG) and natural gas infrastructure assets. The company operates floating regasification terminals. It also offers various terminal services, including providing the crew, and technical and other services related to the floating regasification terminal's operation.
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Excelerate Energy, Inc. owns and operates liquefied natural gas (LNG) and natural gas infrastructure assets. The company operates floating regasification terminals. It also offers various terminal services, including providing the crew, and technical and other services related to the floating regasification terminal's operation. In addition, the company sells natural gas, LNG, power, and steam. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas. Excelerate Energy, Inc. is a subsidiary of Excelerate Energy Holdings, LLC.
Stock analysis
Excelerate Energy Inc (EE) currently trades at $32.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.94, 84.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $22.43 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $32.54 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.04, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $3.71 (bear) to $6.18 (bull), the price of $32.54 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Excelerate Energy Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $889M in FY2021, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was $39.2M in FY2025, compounding −1.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.4B · P/E ratio 32.8 · P/S ratio 1.05 · EPS (TTM) $1.19 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 7.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −85%, EE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.71Fair Value $4.94Bull $6.18
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6579 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.8% vs −5.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 25%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−13.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.8% a year for the price and +14.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−84.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.9% · Below median
Return on assets5.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)18.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth37.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.56× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)32.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)32· sector 56
HEALTH (low debt)22· sector 56
DIVIDEND (yield)20· sector 85
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Excelerate Energy Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EE
Frequently asked questions
Is Excelerate Energy Inc (EE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.94 versus a price of $32.54, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EE?
Our model-based fair value for Excelerate Energy Inc is $4.94 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $32.54.
What is the quality score of EE?
Excelerate Energy Inc has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.94 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.71, optimistic scenario $6.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Excelerate Energy Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.94, about −85% upside versus a price of $32.54 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.71, optimistic scenario $6.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
Excelerate Energy Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Excelerate Energy Inc pay a dividend?
Excelerate Energy Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.98% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Excelerate Energy Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -13.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EE use?
Our models discount Excelerate Energy Inc at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.23, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Excelerate Energy Inc that is -13.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Excelerate Energy Inc (EE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Excelerate Energy Inc grew +23.3 % a year. The price currently implies -13.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Excelerate Energy Inc (EE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Excelerate Energy Inc (-13.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 29.93 %: that much free cash flow Excelerate Energy Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Excelerate Energy Inc it is $4.94 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $32.54. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Excelerate Energy Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, EE trades above its calculated fair value: price $32.54, fair value $4.94, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($32.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.94). For Excelerate Energy Inc the two are $27.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Excelerate Energy Inc worth?
The market values Excelerate Energy Inc at about $4.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $32.54; our models calculate a fair value of $4.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EE?
Our models span a range for Excelerate Energy Inc: cautious scenario $3.71, base $4.94, optimistic $6.18 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $32.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EE?
Excelerate Energy Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.8 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.94 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 21.4 (reported for FY2025: 27.2).
How solid is the balance sheet of Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Excelerate Energy Inc (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 7.9%, debt of 1.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EE from its 52-week high?
Excelerate Energy Inc trades at $32.54, about 24% below its 52-week high of $42.70 and 31% above the low of $24.89 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Excelerate Energy Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Energy Transfer LP,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Excelerate Energy Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $32.54, calculated fair value $4.94 (−85%), Quality Score 38/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EE calculated?
We run Excelerate Energy Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Excelerate Energy Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $32.54. Our model-based fair value is $4.94, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Excelerate Energy Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Excelerate Energy Inc (EE) come from?
Earnings per share at Excelerate Energy Inc grew −6.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.6 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate −2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −11.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Excelerate Energy Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
The market capitalisation of Excelerate Energy Inc is $4.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Excelerate Energy Inc is 1.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
Earnings per share at Excelerate Energy Inc are $1.19 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
The dividend yield of Excelerate Energy Inc is 1.0% (payout 21.1%, on adjusted earnings, reported 26.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
The net margin of Excelerate Energy Inc is 3.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Excelerate Energy Inc is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Excelerate Energy Inc is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
The operating margin of Excelerate Energy Inc is 18.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
Revenue at Excelerate Energy Inc is growing +37.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −20.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Excelerate Energy Inc (EE)?
Earnings per share at Excelerate Energy Inc are growing −19.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Excelerate Energy Inc (EE) carry?
The net debt of Excelerate Energy Inc is $889M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026