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Energean plc (EERGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Energean plc $21.10, price $9.40, upside +124.5%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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EP
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Energean plc
EERGF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $21.10 · Strongly undervalued (+124.5%)
!Quality 40/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +33.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -14.9% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!12.8% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 15/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.16 – $13.14 · fair‑value band $9.29 – $29.94 · the $9.40 price screens below the $21.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Energean plc engages in the exploration, production, and development of oil and gas. The company operates through Europe, Israel, and New Ventures segments. Its flagship project is the 100% owned Karish and Karish North projects located in Israel. It also offers financing services; carbon capture storage; and holds a gas transportation license.
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Energean plc engages in the exploration, production, and development of oil and gas. The company operates through Europe, Israel, and New Ventures segments. Its flagship project is the 100% owned Karish and Karish North projects located in Israel. It also offers financing services; carbon capture storage; and holds a gas transportation license. The company was formerly known as Energean Oil & Gas plc and changed its name to Energean plc in May 2020. Energean plc was founded in 2007 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Energean plc (EERGF) currently trades at $9.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.10, implying the stock looks roughly 55.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $15.71 per share, and 9 of the 12 models we run sit above the $9.40 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $7.66, and 3 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.29 (bear) to $29.94 (bull), the price of $9.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Energean plc reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $497M in FY2021, a compound +37.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$263M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B · P/S ratio 1.02 · EPS (TTM) $−1.61 · Dividend yield 12.8% · Net margin −14.9% · Return on equity −71.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% · Operating margin −10.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 124%, EERGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.29
Fair Value $21.10
Bull $29.94
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF
$4.62
$19.09
$41.83
68
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$4.77
>$19.08
67
Rev-Margin DCF
n/a
$7.66
$26.54
67
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$5.96
$15.71
$44.85
66
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$4.77
>$19.08
67
5Y EBITDA Exit
$10.33
$30.66
$70.52
65
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.1300
$13.56
$20.65
60
10Y EBITDA Exit
$8.99
$38.73
$90.66
58
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$9.49
$17.11
$23.55
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$9.49
$15.63
$18.28
65
Multiples
EV/EBIT
$4.49
$11.07
$17.65
61
EV/EBITDA
$11.94
$20.99
$30.05
65
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.3800
$0.5100
$0.7700
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$4.62
$19.09
$41.83
68
Rev-Margin DCF
n/a
$7.66
$26.54
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
40/100
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Profitability
7
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
7
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+34.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.8%
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−444.6% (2020) → 27.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.0% a year for the price and +8.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−0.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+16.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+14.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+12.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+10.8%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $127.06 | $91.42 | −28% |
| CNOOC Limited 0883 | HK$23.40 | HK$39.91 | +71% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.55 | $52.31 | +10% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $137.76 | $165.02 | +20% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $57.84 | $33.18 | −43% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $46.73 | $51.40 | +10% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $185.23 | $243.76 | +32% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$31.48 | A$23.87 | −24% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $50.09 | $55.10 | +10% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $336.46 | $317.06 | −6% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Energean plc (EERGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.10 versus a price of $9.40, about +124% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EERGF?
Our model-based fair value for Energean plc is $21.10 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.40.
What is the quality score of EERGF?
Energean plc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Energean plc (EERGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.10 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.29, optimistic scenario $29.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Energean plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.10, about +124% upside versus a price of $9.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.29, optimistic scenario $29.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Energean plc (EERGF)?
Energean plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Energean plc pay a dividend?
Energean plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.77% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Energean plc (EERGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Energean plc would have to grow free cash flow by +15.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +129.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EERGF use?
Our models discount Energean plc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.23, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Energean plc that is +15.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Energean plc (EERGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Energean plc grew +129.1 % a year. The price currently implies +15.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Energean plc (EERGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Energean plc (+15.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Energean plc (EERGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.88 %: that much free cash flow Energean plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Energean plc (EERGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Energean plc it is $21.10 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.40. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Energean plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, EERGF trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.40, fair value $21.10, a gap of about +124% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EERGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.10). For Energean plc the two are $11.70 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Energean plc worth?
The market values Energean plc at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.40; our models calculate a fair value of $21.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EERGF?
Our models span a range for Energean plc: cautious scenario $9.29, base $21.10, optimistic $29.94 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is EERGF from its 52-week high?
Energean plc trades at $9.40, about 26% below its 52-week high of $12.72 and at the low of $9.40 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Energean plc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Energean plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.40, calculated fair value $21.10 (+124%), Quality Score 40/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EERGF calculated?
We run Energean plc through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Energean plc currently trades 55 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Energean plc (EERGF)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was $9.40. Our model-based fair value is $21.10, about +124% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Energean plc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($9.29 to $29.94). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Energean plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Energean plc (EERGF)?
The market capitalisation of Energean plc is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Energean plc (EERGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Energean plc is 1.02 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Energean plc (EERGF)?
Earnings per share at Energean plc are $−1.61. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Energean plc (EERGF)?
The dividend yield of Energean plc is 12.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Energean plc (EERGF)?
The net margin of Energean plc is −14.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Energean plc (EERGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Energean plc is −71.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Energean plc (EERGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Energean plc is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Energean plc (EERGF)?
The operating margin of Energean plc is −10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Energean plc (EERGF)?
Revenue at Energean plc is growing +1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +33.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Energean plc (EERGF)?
Earnings per share at Energean plc are growing +22.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Energean plc (EERGF) carry?
The net debt of Energean plc is $3.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 19.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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