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Emerald Holding (EEX) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · US · Market cap $994M

EH Emerald Holding logo Emerald Holding EEX · US
Price$5.04
Fair Value$3.37
Upside-33.1%
Quality36/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -8.2% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
1.20% dividend yield
Trails peers (3/14)
Narrow moat 36/100
Evidence: High Range $0.7990 – $5.11 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Share price +0.4% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 33% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($0.7990 to $5.11). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$6.71 $2.38 Fair Value $3.37 Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.38 – $6.71 · fair‑value band $0.7990 – $5.11 · the $5.04 price screens above the $3.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Emerald Holding (EEX) currently trades at $5.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.37, implying the stock looks roughly 33.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Emerald Holding generated revenue of $471M at a net margin of -8.2%. Revenue grew 5.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -10.6%. Net debt stands at $505M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.7990 (bear case) to $5.11 (bull case); at $5.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -1% fair-value upside, at -33%, EEX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $1.18 $3.28 80
Rev-Margin DCF $0.7900 $3.54 $7.19 74
ROIC Compounder $0.5700 $0.9900 $1.34 72
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $1.46 $4.08 38
5Y Revenue Exit $0.7900 $3.65 $7.66 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $1.42 $5.00 $9.60 41
10Y Revenue Exit $0.2600 $2.72 $6.67 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $0.7600 $3.63 $8.19 37
Earnings-Based
EPV $0.5700 $0.9900 $1.34 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.4700 $0.8400 $1.16 70
DDM Multi-Stage $0.4700 $0.7700 $0.9000 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT $2.65 $4.36 $6.08 53
EV/EBITDA $2.78 $4.53 $6.29 54
EV/Revenue $1.41 $3.08 $4.75 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.8600 $1.15 $1.71 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $1.18 $3.28 80
Rev-Margin DCF $0.7900 $3.54 $7.19 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $0.5700 $0.9900 $1.34 72

Widest divergence: Multiples ($4.36) versus Dividend Discount ($0.7700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $471M
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.2%
Net margin -8.2%
Return on equity -10.6%
Free cash flow $41.4M FY2025
Operating margin 26.8%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) $-0.1900
Dividend yield 1.2%
EPS growth (YoY) -52.3%
Net debt $505M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 14
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 58
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Emerald Holding, Inc. operates as a business-to-business (B2B) event organizer in the United States. The company provides B2B trade shows, expos, and conferences; B2C showcases; and B2B digital media platforms and print publications, which provides industry-specific news, insights, education, and analysis across various sectors.

Full company description

Emerald Holding, Inc. operates as a business-to-business (B2B) event organizer in the United States. The company provides B2B trade shows, expos, and conferences; B2C showcases; and B2B digital media platforms and print publications, which provides industry-specific news, insights, education, and analysis across various sectors. It also offers B2B e-commerce and digital merchandising solutions to manufacturers and retailers through Elastic Suite platform. The company was formerly known as Emerald Expositions Events, Inc. and changed its name to Emerald Holding, Inc. in February 2020. Emerald Holding, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Emerald Holding reported revenue of $463M in FY2025 versus $146M in FY2021, a compound +33.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$30.7M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$463M
Latest YoY
+16.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+12.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+29.5%
Avg. growth/yr (11Y)
+4.9%
Revenue +33.6%/yr
FY21 $146M
FY22 $326M
FY23 $383M
FY24 $399M
FY25 $463M
Net income
FY21 −$79.7M
FY22 $70.6M
FY23 −$8.2M
FY24 $2.2M
FY25 −$30.7M

EEX screens 33% overvalued. Compare with AppLovin Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Emerald Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EEX

Peer Group

Advertising Agencies · 199 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −33% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) -8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 27% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.2% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 1.47× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.93× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.11× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 24.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 13.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.16× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 19
FUTURE 26 · sector 8
PAST 0 · sector 7
HEALTH 26 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 24 · sector 66

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
AppLovin Corporation APP $506.98 $181.37 -64%
Publicis Groupe S.A PUB €87.16 €146.36 +68%
Omnicom Group OMC $80.75 $99.84 +24%
Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 ¥5.00 ¥4.08 -18%
The Trade Desk, Inc TTD $19.37 $20.76 +7%
BlueFocus Intelligent Communications Group 300058 ¥13.81 ¥1.50 -89%
JCDecaux SE DEC €21.28 €20.99 -1%
WPP plc WPP $18.13 $18.56 +2%
Easy Click Worldwide Network Technology Co 301171 ¥28.85 ¥5.62 -81%
Mobvista Inc 1860 HK$11.15 HK$6.43 -42%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Emerald Holding (EEX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.37 versus a price of $5.04, about −33% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EEX?
Our model-based fair value for Emerald Holding is $3.37 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $5.04.
What is the quality score of EEX?
Emerald Holding has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Emerald Holding (EEX)?
Emerald Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $471M (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of EEX?
The net profit margin of Emerald Holding is about -8.2%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Emerald Holding pay a dividend?
Emerald Holding currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.20% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 16, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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