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Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Nexus Industrial REIT is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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NI
Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
Nexus Industrial REIT
EFRTF · USSpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value $7.62 · Undervalued (+44%)
!Quality 49/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +23.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 33.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·12.09% dividend yield
!Moderate moat 56/100
!The models disagree: range $7.58 to $18.27
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.08 – $7.90 · fair‑value band $7.58 – $18.27 · the $5.29 price screens below the $7.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
Nexus Industrial REIT is an unincorporated, open-ended real estate investment trust governed by the laws of the Province of Ontario pursuant to an amended and restated declaration of trust dated March 7, 2022. Nexus Industrial REIT and its subsidiaries, own and operate commercial real estate properties across Canada.
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Nexus Industrial REIT is an unincorporated, open-ended real estate investment trust governed by the laws of the Province of Ontario pursuant to an amended and restated declaration of trust dated March 7, 2022. Nexus Industrial REIT and its subsidiaries, own and operate commercial real estate properties across Canada. The registered office of the REIT is located at 105-586 Argus Road, Oakville, ON, L6J 3J3. Nexus Industrial REIT was incorporated in 2012 in Ontario, Canada.
Stock analysis
Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF) currently trades at $5.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.62, implying the stock looks roughly 30.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $14.02 per share, and 11 of the 14 models we run sit above the $5.29 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $4.96, and 3 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $7.58 (bear) to $18.27 (bull), the price of $5.29 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nexus Industrial REIT reported revenue of C$175M in FY2025 versus C$83.6M in FY2021, a compound +20.3%/yr. Reported net income was C$59.5M in FY2025, compounding −20.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $692M · P/E ratio 13.6 · P/S ratio 4.62 · EPS (TTM) $0.4200 · Dividend yield 12.1% · Net margin 34.0% · Return on equity 5.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 44%, EFRTF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.58
Fair Value $7.62
Bull $18.27
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$11.10
$11.26
$10.51
76
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$14.57
$43.96
72
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$3.26
$22.73
69
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$3.26
$22.73
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$14.57
$43.96
72
10Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$4.96
$14.35
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$15.95
$52.21
65
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$4.90
$8.83
$12.15
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$4.90
$8.06
$9.43
67
Multiples
P/S Multiple
$10.51
$14.02
$17.52
58
P/B Multiple
$10.51
$14.02
$17.52
55
EV/EBIT
$10.54
$19.51
$28.48
63
EV/EBITDA
$4.44
$11.38
$18.32
62
EV/Revenue
n/a
$0.5700
$5.66
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$7.50
$10.05
$15.00
54
Growth DCF
Rev-Margin DCF
n/a
$6.06
$28.61
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$11.10
$11.26
$10.51
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
49/100
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Profitability
34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
28
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
86
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.3%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+59.9%
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’18
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’20
’21
’22
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+15.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)12.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6% vs 2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.68% → 67%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+39.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+6.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.0%
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Compare Nexus Industrial REIT with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Industrial · 55 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Industrial median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Real Estate sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Real Estate
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Industrial stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prologis, Inc PLD | $135.75 | $65.08 | −52% |
| Public Storage, a member of the S&P 500, PSA | $296.50 | $231.14 | −22% |
| Extra Space Storage Inc EXR | $137.64 | $149.42 | +9% |
| EastGroup Properties, Inc EGP | $198.12 | $121.62 | −39% |
| Lineage, Inc LINE | $37.75 | $47.91 | +27% |
| CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR) A17U | 2.34 SGD | 3.08 SGD | +32% |
| CubeSmart CUBE | $39.54 | $32.58 | −18% |
| First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc FR | $61.38 | $20.72 | −66% |
| Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc REXR | $38.04 | $15.97 | −58% |
| STAG Industrial, Inc STAG | $37.14 | $34.47 | −7% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.62 versus a price of $5.29, about +44% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EFRTF?
Our model-based fair value for Nexus Industrial REIT is $7.62 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.29.
What is the quality score of EFRTF?
Nexus Industrial REIT has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.62 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.58, optimistic scenario $18.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nexus Industrial REIT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.62, about +44% upside versus a price of $5.29 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $7.58, optimistic scenario $18.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF)?
Nexus Industrial REIT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $174M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Nexus Industrial REIT pay a dividend?
Nexus Industrial REIT currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.09% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nexus Industrial REIT would have to grow free cash flow by +39.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.3 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EFRTF use?
Our models discount Nexus Industrial REIT at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nexus Industrial REIT that is +39.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nexus Industrial REIT grew +23.3 % a year. The price currently implies +39.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nexus Industrial REIT (+39.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.27 %: that much free cash flow Nexus Industrial REIT produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nexus Industrial REIT it is $7.62 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $5.29. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nexus Industrial REIT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, EFRTF trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.29, fair value $7.62, a gap of about +44% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EFRTF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.62). For Nexus Industrial REIT the two are $2.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nexus Industrial REIT worth?
The market values Nexus Industrial REIT at about $692M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $5.29; our models calculate a fair value of $7.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EFRTF?
Our models span a range for Nexus Industrial REIT: cautious scenario $7.58, base $7.62, optimistic $18.27 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $5.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EFRTF?
Nexus Industrial REIT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 15.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nexus Industrial REIT (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 5.4%, debt of 1.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EFRTF from its 52-week high?
Nexus Industrial REIT trades at $5.29, about 34% below its 52-week high of $8.06 and 10% above the low of $4.79 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nexus Industrial REIT?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Prologis, Inc, Public Storage, a member of the S&P 500,, Extra Space Storage Inc, EastGroup Properties, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nexus Industrial REIT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $5.29, calculated fair value $7.62 (+44%), Quality Score 49/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EFRTF calculated?
We run Nexus Industrial REIT through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Nexus Industrial REIT currently trades 44 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Nexus Industrial REIT right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($7.58). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($7.58 to $18.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Nexus Industrial REIT
How large is the market capitalisation of Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF)?
The market capitalisation of Nexus Industrial REIT is $692M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nexus Industrial REIT is 4.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF)?
Earnings per share at Nexus Industrial REIT are $0.4200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF)?
The dividend yield of Nexus Industrial REIT is 12.1% (payout 152%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF)?
The net margin of Nexus Industrial REIT is 34.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nexus Industrial REIT is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nexus Industrial REIT is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF)?
The operating margin of Nexus Industrial REIT is 68.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF)?
Revenue at Nexus Industrial REIT is growing +2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF)?
Earnings per share at Nexus Industrial REIT are growing −3.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nexus Industrial REIT (EFRTF) carry?
The net debt of Nexus Industrial REIT is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 48.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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