Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Vaalco Energy Inc $6.14, price $5.84, upside +5.1%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.70 – $6.91 · fair‑value band $5.32 – $6.82 · the $5.84 price screens below the $6.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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VAALCO Energy, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Gabon, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Cote d'Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, and Canada.
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VAALCO Energy, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Gabon, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Cote d'Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, and Canada. It holds 58.8% interest in the Etame production sharing contract related to the Etame Marin block covering an area of approximately 46,200 gross acres located offshore in the Republic of Gabon in West Africa. The company also holds 100% interest in the Eastern Desert, which contains West Gharib, West Bakr, and Northwest Gharib merged concessions covering an area of approximately 45,067 acres, as well as Western Desert, which contains the South Ghazalat concession covering an area of approximately 7,340 acres located in Egypt. In addition, it holds 27.4% non-operated working interest in CI-40 in the deepwater producing Baobab field in Block CI-40, offshore Cote d'Ivoire in West Africa. Further, the company owns production and working interests in Cardium light oil and Mannville liquids-rich gas assets in Harmattan, within the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, approximately 80 kilometers north of Calgary, Alberta; and a 60% working interest in an undeveloped portion of block P offshore Equatorial Guinea. VAALCO Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY) currently trades at $5.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.14, implying the stock looks roughly 4.9% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $4.42 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $5.84 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.74, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.32 (bear) to $6.82 (bull), the price of $5.84 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Vaalco Energy Inc reported revenue of $359M in FY2025 versus $199M in FY2021, a compound +15.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$41.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $686M · P/S ratio 1.74 · EPS (TTM) $−1.04 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin −11.5% · Return on equity −24.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.8% · Operating margin 47.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 5%, EGY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.32Fair Value $6.14Bull $6.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−25.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.1% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−35.2% (2020) → 13.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Below median
Fair Value upside+5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−31% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)48% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth40% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vaalco Energy Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EGY
Frequently asked questions
Is Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.14 versus a price of $5.84, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of EGY?
Our model-based fair value for Vaalco Energy Inc is $6.14 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.84.
What is the quality score of EGY?
Vaalco Energy Inc has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.14 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.32, optimistic scenario $6.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vaalco Energy Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.14, about +5% upside versus a price of $5.84 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $5.32, optimistic scenario $6.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY)?
Vaalco Energy Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $312M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Vaalco Energy Inc pay a dividend?
Vaalco Energy Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.28% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vaalco Energy Inc it is $6.14 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $5.84. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vaalco Energy Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, EGY trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.84, fair value $6.14, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.14). For Vaalco Energy Inc the two are $0.3000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vaalco Energy Inc worth?
The market values Vaalco Energy Inc at about $686M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $5.84; our models calculate a fair value of $6.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EGY?
Our models span a range for Vaalco Energy Inc: cautious scenario $5.32, base $6.14, optimistic $6.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $5.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of EGY?
The PEG ratio of Vaalco Energy Inc is 3.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vaalco Energy Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −24.4%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EGY from its 52-week high?
Vaalco Energy Inc trades at $5.84, about 11% below its 52-week high of $6.53 and 79% above the low of $3.26 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vaalco Energy Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vaalco Energy Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $5.84, calculated fair value $6.14 (+5%), Quality Score 36/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EGY calculated?
We run Vaalco Energy Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Vaalco Energy Inc currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $5.84. Our model-based fair value is $6.14, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vaalco Energy Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Vaalco Energy Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY)?
The market capitalisation of Vaalco Energy Inc is $686M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vaalco Energy Inc is 1.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY)?
Earnings per share at Vaalco Energy Inc are $−1.04. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY)?
The dividend yield of Vaalco Energy Inc is 4.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY)?
The net margin of Vaalco Energy Inc is −11.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vaalco Energy Inc is −24.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vaalco Energy Inc is 17.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY)?
The operating margin of Vaalco Energy Inc is 47.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY)?
Revenue at Vaalco Energy Inc is growing +39.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY)?
Earnings per share at Vaalco Energy Inc are growing +390% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY) generate?
The free cash flow of Vaalco Energy Inc is −$43.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY) carry?
The net debt of Vaalco Energy Inc is $69.5M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026