VAALCO Energy, Inc (EGY) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $597M
VAALCO Energy, Inc
EGY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $7.46 to $7.42 (−0.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 34% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (26/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($5.24 to $9.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.72 – $6.98 · fair‑value band $5.24 – $9.60 · the $5.55 price screens below the $7.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
VAALCO Energy, Inc (EGY) currently trades at $5.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.42, implying the stock looks roughly 33.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, VAALCO Energy, Inc generated revenue of $312M at a net margin of -45.9%. Revenue declined 43.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -33.7%. Net debt stands at $69.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.24 (bear case) to $9.60 (bull case); at $5.55, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at 34%, EGY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($4.35) versus Earnings-Based ($2.69). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
VAALCO Energy, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Gabon, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Cote d'Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, and Canada.
Full company description
VAALCO Energy, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Gabon, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Cote d'Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, and Canada. It holds 58.8% interest in the Etame production sharing contract related to the Etame Marin block covering an area of approximately 46,200 gross acres located offshore in the Republic of Gabon in West Africa. The company also holds 100% interest in the Eastern Desert, which contains West Gharib, West Bakr, and Northwest Gharib merged concessions covering an area of approximately 45,067 acres, as well as Western Desert, which contains the South Ghazalat concession covering an area of approximately 7,340 acres located in Egypt. In addition, it holds 27.4% non-operated working interest in CI-40 in the deepwater producing Baobab field in Block CI-40, offshore Cote d'Ivoire in West Africa. Further, the company owns production and working interests in Cardium light oil and Mannville liquids-rich gas assets in Harmattan, within the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, approximately 80 kilometers north of Calgary, Alberta; and a 60% working interest in an undeveloped portion of block P offshore Equatorial Guinea. VAALCO Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
VAALCO Energy, Inc reported revenue of $359M in FY2025 versus $199M in FY2021, a compound +15.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$41.4M in FY2025.
Watch EGY: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- VAALCO Energy, Inc. Announces Exciting Operational Update in Offshore Gabon and in Egypt
- VAALCO Energy restarts production at Baobab Field
- Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights Harbour Energy, Kosmos Energy and VAALCO Energy
- VAALCO forecasts Q2 NRI production of 16,800–18,700 BOE/d as it raises 2026 NRI production and sales guidance by 8% and 12%
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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