Endesa SA (ELE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Endesa SA stock €27.50, price €43.81, upside -37.2%, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €11.36 – €44.18 · fair‑value band €16.24 – €39.52 · the €43.81 price screens above the €27.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Endesa, S.A. engages in the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity in Spain, Portugal, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Singapore, Italy, Morocco, and internationally.
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It generates electricity from various energy sources, such as hydroelectric, nuclear, thermal, wind, and solar.
The company also offers advisory services and technology relating to energy, distributed generation, and energy demand management; deploys infrastructures for charging electric vehicles, vehicle-to-grid, and second-life services for batteries; develops integrated services for local administrations, such as public lighting, smart city development, energy services, and solutions for connectivity; and provides financial solutions for energy producers, as well as offers engineering and construction services for facilities related to the electricity business.
As of December 31, 2025, it had an installed capacity of 22, 616 MW; operated 321,843 km of distribution networks and transmission grids; and distributed electricity to 9,590 thousand customers and gas to 1,699 thousand customers.
The company was formerly known as Empresa Nacional de Electricidad, S.A. and changed its name to Endesa, S.A. in June 1997. The company was incorporated in 1944 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain. Endesa, S.A. is a subsidiary of Enel Iberia Srl.
Stock analysis
Endesa SA (ELE) currently trades at €43.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €27.50, 37.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €36.83 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the €43.81 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €4.29, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €16.24 (bear) to €39.52 (bull), the price of €43.81 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Endesa SA reported revenue of €21.0B in FY2025 versus €20.5B in FY2021, a compound +0.6%/yr. Reported net income was €2.2B in FY2025, compounding +11.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €45.4B Large · P/E ratio 16.9 · P/S ratio 2.15 · EPS (TTM) €2.60 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 12.4% · Return on equity 29.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −37%, ELE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€16.24Fair Value €27.50Bull€39.52
Price €43.81 · Upside -37.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.8462 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.9% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.5% vs 4.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.1% a year for the price and −2.7% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Rising share of regulated network returns adds earnings stability, yet thin data leaves durable advantages unproven and regulation limits upside potential.
Main risk: The CNMC could maintain or adjust remuneration rates and investment caps for distribution below levels covering costs and needed capex, squeezing margins on Endesa's expanding regulated networks now at half of EBITDA.
Bull case: Endesa could secure more favorable regulatory terms through lobbying and grid investments that enable higher connections for data centers and electrification demand while using AI tools to cut operating costs in networks and retail.
Bear case: Persistent low allowed returns and investment limits could slow network expansion and cap growth in the regulated segment while aggressive pricing by new entrants accelerates customer losses and compresses retail margins.
Endesa raised its 2026 earnings guidance after regulated networks lifted their share of EBITDA to 50 percent in the first half, up from 40 percent the year before. The company is also continuing its share buyback program with fresh tranches and treasury share cancellations. Does the rising weight of predictable regulated returns provide enough stability against shifts in Spanish energy policy?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 160 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−37.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)29.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)12.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)18.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.08× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.9× · Pricier than median
P/B5.32× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.15× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow20.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA9.4× · Pricier than median
PEG4.25× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)18· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)46· sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)72· sector 64
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Endesa SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ELE.MC
Frequently asked questions
Is Endesa SA (ELE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €27.50 versus a price of €43.81, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ELE?
Our model-based fair value for Endesa SA is €27.50 (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €43.81.
What is the quality score of ELE?
Endesa SA has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Endesa SA (ELE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €27.50 (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €16.24, optimistic scenario €39.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Endesa SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €27.50, about −37% upside versus a price of €43.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €16.24, optimistic scenario €39.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Endesa SA (ELE)?
Endesa SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €21.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
Does Endesa SA pay a dividend?
Endesa SA currently shows a dividend yield of 3.62% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Endesa SA (ELE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Endesa SA would have to grow free cash flow by +12.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.7 % per year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ELE use?
Our models discount Endesa SA at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Endesa SA that is +12.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Endesa SA (ELE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Endesa SA grew +4.7 % a year. The price currently implies +12.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Endesa SA (ELE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Endesa SA (+12.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Endesa SA (ELE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.86 %: that much free cash flow Endesa SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Endesa SA (ELE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Endesa SA it is €27.50 per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of €43.81. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Endesa SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, ELE trades above its calculated fair value: price €43.81, fair value €27.50, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€43.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€27.50). For Endesa SA the two are €16.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Endesa SA worth?
The market values Endesa SA at about €45.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is €43.81; our models calculate a fair value of €27.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELE?
Our models span a range for Endesa SA: cautious scenario €16.24, base €27.50, optimistic €39.52 per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price €43.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ELE?
Endesa SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.9 (as of Oct 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €27.50 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 15.0. Other multiples: PEG 4.3, P/B 5.3, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 9.4.
What is the PEG ratio of ELE?
The PEG ratio of Endesa SA is 4.25 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Endesa SA (ELE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Endesa SA (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity 29.1%, debt of 1.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELE from its 52-week high?
Endesa SA trades at €43.81, about 1% below its 52-week high of €44.18 and 52% above the low of €28.89 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €27.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Endesa SA?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Endesa SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price €43.81, calculated fair value €27.50 (−37%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELE calculated?
We run Endesa SA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €27.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Endesa SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Endesa SA (ELE)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was €43.81. Our model-based fair value is €27.50, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Endesa SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€39.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€16.24 to €39.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Endesa SA (ELE) come from?
Earnings per share at Endesa SA grew −2.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.6 %, EBIT margin +9.2 %, tax rate −1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −10.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Endesa SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Endesa SA (ELE)?
The market capitalisation of Endesa SA is €45.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Endesa SA (ELE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Endesa SA is 2.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Endesa SA (ELE)?
Earnings per share at Endesa SA are €2.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Endesa SA (ELE)?
The dividend yield of Endesa SA is 3.6% (payout 60.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Endesa SA (ELE)?
The net margin of Endesa SA is 12.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Endesa SA (ELE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Endesa SA is 29.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Endesa SA (ELE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Endesa SA is 9.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Endesa SA (ELE)?
The operating margin of Endesa SA is 18.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Endesa SA (ELE)?
Revenue at Endesa SA is growing +3.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Endesa SA (ELE)?
Earnings per share at Endesa SA are growing +67.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Endesa SA (ELE) carry?
The net debt of Endesa SA is €10.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 29, 2026