ELF Beauty Inc (ELF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what ELF Beauty Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $5.7B · ISIN US26856L1035
At a glance
EBELF Beauty IncELF · US
Price$95.76
Fair Value$18.32
Upside−80.9% ⚠
Quality47/100
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 423% above our fair value of $18.32.
As of Sep 5, 2026, the fair value of ELF Beauty Inc is $18.32 per share against a price of $95.76, so the fair value sits 81% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +38.8 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -0.2% net margin · fiscal year 2026 1.6%
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/14)
!Narrow moat 29/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: LowRange $10.71 to $27.00
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +0.8% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($27.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
A fairly wide model range ($10.71 to $27.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $21.05 – $218.00 · fair‑value band $10.71 – $27.00 · the $95.76 price screens above the $18.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
ELF Beauty Inc (ELF) currently trades at $95.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.32, implying the stock looks roughly 422.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $48.06 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $95.76 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $9.38, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Revenue grew 35.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −0.3%. Net debt stands at $627M. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Scenario range: $10.71 (bear) to $27.00 (bull), the price of $95.76 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 93% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −81%, ELF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1977 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($7.59 to $83.54). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income$13.41$12.73$10.0476
FCF DCF$42.47$70.15$156.4575
EPV$9.41$12.29$14.7774
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$42.47$70.15$156.4575
Owner Earnings$12.15$37.65$89.2368
5Y Revenue Exit$21.88$40.86$80.3168
5Y EBITDA Exit$31.57$60.46$117.0271
5Y P/E Exit$11.04$24.55$41.0868
10Y Revenue Exit$27.67$63.15$83.2066
10Y EBITDA Exit$35.47$83.54$165.3864
10Y P/E Exit$20.82$40.33$68.1061
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$3.04$21.18$29.7263
Lynch FV$8.53$12.19$15.8461
PEG = 1.0$8.53$12.19$15.8457
EPV$9.41$12.29$14.7774
Multiples
P/E Multiple$7.03$9.38$11.7263
P/S Multiple$5.69$7.59$9.4958
P/B Multiple$5.69$7.59$9.4955
EV/EBIT$19.58$29.05$38.5265
EV/EBITDA$26.03$37.64$49.2667
EV/Revenue$11.45$20.14$28.8352
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$9.59$12.85$19.1854
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$39.35$77.78$152.9774
Rev-Margin DCF$22.68$48.06$96.8668
Economic Profit
Residual Income$13.41$12.73$10.0476
ROIC Compounder$9.41$12.29$14.7772
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$10.71$15.30$19.8967
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($48.06) versus Multiples ($9.38). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio217.6
P/S ratio3.50P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$0.4400price ÷ EPS = P/E 217.6
Net margin1.6%FY2026
Return on equity−0.3%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)9.8%avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin1.7%TTM
Growth
Revenue growth (YoY)+35.1%3y avg +41.4%
EPS growth (YoY)+117%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow$190MFY2026
Net debt$627MFY2026 · ≈ 3.3 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality47/100
Of which business quality 53
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Profitability40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow74
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength64
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum23
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance61
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc., a beauty company, provides cosmetics and skin care products worldwide. The company offers eye, lip, face, and skin care products. It offers products under the e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. Skin, Well People, Naturium, and Rhode brand names.
Full company description
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc., a beauty company, provides cosmetics and skin care products worldwide. The company offers eye, lip, face, and skin care products. It offers products under the e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. Skin, Well People, Naturium, and Rhode brand names. The company sells its products through national and international retailers and direct-to-consumer through its e-commerce channel. The company was formerly known as J.A. Cosmetics Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. in April 2016. e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Oakland, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
ELF Beauty Inc reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2026 versus $392M in FY2022, a compound +42.9%/yr. Reported net income was $26.3M in FY2026, compounding +4.9%/yr from FY2022.
Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$1.6B
Latest YoY
+24.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+41.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+38.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (12Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+1.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+1.8%
Dividend yield0.0%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 4.7% vs 10Y 6.8%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3.0% (2021) → 8.0% (2026) · rising
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−83% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth35% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.72× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiples vs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)217.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.84× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)16.18× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF22.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA76.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.37× · Cheaper than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must ELF Beauty Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+19.3 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+38.8 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.9 %
FCF yield on price3.34 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models12.2 %
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 29
FUTURE100· sector 8
PAST0· sector 27
HEALTH64· sector 98
DIVIDEND0· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Household & Personal Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
Is ELF Beauty Inc (ELF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.32 versus a price of $95.76, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ELF?
Our model-based fair value for ELF Beauty Inc is $18.32 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $95.76.
What is the quality score of ELF?
ELF Beauty Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ELF Beauty Inc (ELF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.32 (as of Sep 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.71, optimistic scenario $27.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ELF Beauty Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.32, about −81% upside versus a price of $95.76 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.71, optimistic scenario $27.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the net profit margin of ELF?
The net profit margin of ELF Beauty Inc is about −0.2%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
What growth is priced into ELF Beauty Inc (ELF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ELF Beauty Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +19.3 % per year for ten years (discount rate 12.2 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +38.8 % per year. As of Sep 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ELF use?
Our models discount ELF Beauty Inc at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 2.39, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of ELF Beauty Inc (ELF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ELF Beauty Inc it is $18.32 per share (as of Sep 5, 2026), against a price of $95.76. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ELF Beauty Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 5, 2026, ELF trades above its calculated fair value: price $95.76, fair value $18.32, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($95.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.32). For ELF Beauty Inc the two are $77.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ELF Beauty Inc worth?
The market values ELF Beauty Inc at about $5.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 5, 2026). Per share that is $95.76; our models calculate a fair value of $18.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELF?
Our models span a range for ELF Beauty Inc: cautious scenario $10.71, base $18.32, optimistic $27.00 per share (as of Sep 5, 2026, price $95.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ELF?
ELF Beauty Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 217.6 (as of Sep 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 3.8, P/S 16.2, EV/EBITDA 76.3.
What is the PEG ratio of ELF?
The PEG ratio of ELF Beauty Inc is 1.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ELF Beauty Inc (ELF)?
Balance-sheet figures for ELF Beauty Inc (as of Sep 5, 2026): return on equity −0.3%, debt of 0.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELF from its 52-week high?
ELF Beauty Inc trades at $95.76, about 37% below its 52-week high of $150.99 and 93% above the low of $49.72 (as of Sep 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ELF Beauty Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value L'Oréal S.A, Unilever PLC, Colgate-Palmolive Company, 500696, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ELF Beauty Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 5, 2026: price $95.76, calculated fair value $18.32 (−81%), Quality Score 47/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELF calculated?
We run ELF Beauty Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. ELF Beauty Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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ELF Beauty Inc
ELF · US