Erciyas Çelik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · TR · Market cap 3.7B TRY
Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated today
Share price +0.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 36% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (30.61 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
55‑month range 31.78 TRY – 220.20 TRY · fair‑value band 22.84 TRY – 30.61 TRY · the 47.90 TRY price screens above the 30.61 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
Analysis
Erciyas Çelik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB) currently trades at 47.90 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 30.61 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 36.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Erciyas Çelik Boru Sanayi A.S. generated revenue of 6.7B TRY at a net margin of -3.1%. Revenue declined 27.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.4%. Net debt stands at 5.5B TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 22.84 TRY (bear case) to 30.61 TRY (bull case); at 47.90 TRY, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at -36%, ERCB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (35.13 TRY) versus Asset-Based (30.61 TRY). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Erciyas Çelik Boru Sanayi A.S. manufactures steel, spiral, and welded steel pipes in Turkey. It offers drinking water pipes, pile pipes, steel structure pipes, general and special purpose pipes, and fittings, as well as natural gas, petrochemical gas, and petrochemical and oil pipes.
Full company description
Erciyas Çelik Boru Sanayi A.S. manufactures steel, spiral, and welded steel pipes in Turkey. It offers drinking water pipes, pile pipes, steel structure pipes, general and special purpose pipes, and fittings, as well as natural gas, petrochemical gas, and petrochemical and oil pipes. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Erciyas Çelik Boru Sanayi A.S. reported revenue of 7.1B TRY in FY2025 versus 1.1B TRY in FY2021, a compound +61.1%/yr. Reported net income was −406M TRY in FY2025.
ERCB screens 36% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →
Peer Group
Steel · 377 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tata Steel Limited TTST | $0.2010 | $0.2000 | -0% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,227 | ₹1,140 | -7% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.89 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| China Steel Corporation 2002A | 38.55 TWD | 8.74 TWD | -77% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 313,500 KRW | 155,270 KRW | -50% |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID | 13,670 ARS | 15,940 ARS | +17% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,028 | ₹545.12 | -47% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,844 | ₹1,098 | -40% |
| Gerdau S.A GGBN | 83.50 MXN | 42.64 MXN | -49% |
| Ternium S.A TXR | 17,780 ARS | 27,210 ARS | +53% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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