Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
56‑month range 31.78 TRY – 220.20 TRY · fair‑value band 44.61 TRY – 59.78 TRY · the 38.92 TRY price screens below the 59.78 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Erciyas Çelik Boru Sanayi A.S. manufactures steel, spiral, and welded steel pipes in Turkey. It offers drinking water pipes, pile pipes, steel structure pipes, general and special purpose pipes, and fittings, as well as natural gas, petrochemical gas, and petrochemical and oil pipes.
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Erciyas Çelik Boru Sanayi A.S. manufactures steel, spiral, and welded steel pipes in Turkey. It offers drinking water pipes, pile pipes, steel structure pipes, general and special purpose pipes, and fittings, as well as natural gas, petrochemical gas, and petrochemical and oil pipes. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB) currently trades at 38.92 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 59.78 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 34.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: 44.61 TRY (bear) to 59.78 TRY (bull), the price of 38.92 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. reported revenue of 7.1B TRY in FY2025 versus 1.1B TRY in FY2021, a compound +61.1%/yr. Reported net income was −406M TRY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.7B TRY (≈ $75.9M) · P/S ratio 0.55 · EPS (TTM) −2.64 TRY · Net margin −5.7% · Return on equity −4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% · Operating margin 4.9% · Revenue (TTM) 6.7B TRY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at 54%, ERCB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 44.61 TRYFair Value 59.78 TRYBull 59.78 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.2%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.6% (2021) → 2.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 408 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+38% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−27% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.04× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ERCB
Frequently asked questions
Is Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 59.78 TRY versus a price of 38.92 TRY, about +54% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ERCB?
Our model-based fair value for Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is 59.78 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 38.92 TRY.
What is the quality score of ERCB?
Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 59.78 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario 44.61 TRY, optimistic scenario 59.78 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 59.78 TRY, about +54% upside versus a price of 38.92 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 44.61 TRY, optimistic scenario 59.78 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.7B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. it is 59.78 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 38.92 TRY. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, ERCB trades below its calculated fair value: price 38.92 TRY, fair value 59.78 TRY, a gap of about +54% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ERCB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (38.92 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (59.78 TRY). For Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. the two are 20.86 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. worth?
The market values Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. at about 3.7B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 38.92 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 59.78 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ERCB?
Our models span a range for Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S.: cautious scenario 44.61 TRY, base 59.78 TRY, optimistic 59.78 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 38.92 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −4.4%, debt of 1.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ERCB from its 52-week high?
Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. trades at 38.92 TRY, about 63% below its 52-week high of 105.00 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 59.78 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 38.92 TRY, calculated fair value 59.78 TRY (+54%), Quality Score 30/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ERCB calculated?
We run Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 59.78 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. currently trades 54 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was 38.92 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 59.78 TRY, about +54% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (30/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (44.61 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S.
How large is the market capitalisation of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
The market capitalisation of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is 3.7B TRY (≈ $75.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is 0.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
Earnings per share at Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. are −2.64 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
The net margin of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is −5.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is −4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
The operating margin of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
Revenue at Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is growing −27.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
Earnings per share at Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. are growing +21.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB) generate?
The free cash flow of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is −866M TRY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB) carry?
The net debt of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is 5.5B TRY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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