Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. stock TRY 50.18, price TRY 31.36, upside +60.0%, quality 28 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range 28.76 TRY – 220.20 TRY · fair‑value band 37.44 TRY – 74.89 TRY · the 31.36 TRY price screens below the 50.18 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Erciyas Çelik Boru Sanayi A.S. manufactures steel, spiral, and welded steel pipes in Turkey. It offers drinking water pipes, pile pipes, steel structure pipes, general and special purpose pipes, and fittings, as well as natural gas, petrochemical gas, and petrochemical and oil pipes.
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The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB) currently trades at 31.36 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 50.18 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: 37.44 TRY (bear) to 74.89 TRY (bull), the price of 31.36 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. reported revenue of 7.1B TRY in FY2025 versus 1.1B TRY in FY2021, a compound +61.1%/yr. Reported net income was −406M TRY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.4B TRY (≈ $48.6M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.43 · EPS (TTM) −7.63 TRY · Net margin −10.2% · Return on equity −17.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% · Operating margin 1.4% · Revenue (TTM) 5.8B TRY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 19 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 60%, ERCB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear37.44 TRYFair Value 50.18 TRYBull74.89 TRY
Price 31.36 TRY · Upside +60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDAn/an/a7.29 TRY62
NCAV (Graham)22.35 TRY29.95 TRY44.70 TRY54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDAn/an/a7.29 TRY62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)22.35 TRY29.95 TRY44.70 TRY54
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.2%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.6% (2021) → 2.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 407 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−10.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)1.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−41.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.04× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ERCB
Frequently asked questions
Is Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 50.18 TRY versus a price of 31.36 TRY, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ERCB?
Our model-based fair value for Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is 50.18 TRY (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 31.36 TRY.
What is the quality score of ERCB?
Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 50.18 TRY (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario 37.44 TRY, optimistic scenario 74.89 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 50.18 TRY, about +60% upside versus a price of 31.36 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 37.44 TRY, optimistic scenario 74.89 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.8B TRY (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. it is 50.18 TRY per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of 31.36 TRY. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, ERCB trades below its calculated fair value: price 31.36 TRY, fair value 50.18 TRY, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ERCB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (31.36 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (50.18 TRY). For Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. the two are 18.82 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. worth?
The market values Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. at about 2.4B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is 31.36 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 50.18 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ERCB?
Our models span a range for Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S.: cautious scenario 37.44 TRY, base 50.18 TRY, optimistic 74.89 TRY per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price 31.36 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity −17.6%, debt of 1.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ERCB from its 52-week high?
Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. trades at 31.36 TRY, about 67% below its 52-week high of 96.10 TRY and 9% above the low of 28.76 TRY (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 50.18 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price 31.36 TRY, calculated fair value 50.18 TRY (+60%), Quality Score 28/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ERCB calculated?
We run Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 50.18 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was 31.36 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 50.18 TRY, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (28/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (37.44 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (37.44 TRY to 74.89 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S.
How large is the market capitalisation of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
The market capitalisation of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is 2.4B TRY (≈ $48.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is 0.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
Earnings per share at Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. are −7.63 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
The net margin of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is −10.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is −17.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
The operating margin of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
Revenue at Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is growing −41.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB)?
Earnings per share at Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. are growing +21.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB) generate?
The free cash flow of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is −866M TRY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. (ERCB) carry?
The net debt of Erciyas Celik Boru Sanayi A.S. is 5.5B TRY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 1, 2026