The Erawan Group (ERW) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · TH · Market cap 14.7B THB
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from 2.99 THB to 2.92 THB (−2.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +19.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 19% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (1.46 THB to 3.73 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.77 THB – 5.41 THB · fair‑value band 1.46 THB – 3.73 THB · the 3.62 THB price screens above the 2.92 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
The Erawan Group (ERW) currently trades at 3.62 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.92 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 19.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, The Erawan Group generated revenue of 8.1B THB at a net margin of 10.8%. Revenue grew 5.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.3%. Net debt stands at 16.5B THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1.46 THB (bear case) to 3.73 THB (bull case); at 3.62 THB, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 108% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -62% fair-value upside, at -19%, ERW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (2.99 THB) versus Asset-Based (1.23 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Notify me when ERW reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Erawan Group Public Company Limited engages in hotel, and building rental and management businesses primarily in Thailand, Japan, and Philippines.
Full company description
The Erawan Group Public Company Limited engages in hotel, and building rental and management businesses primarily in Thailand, Japan, and Philippines. The company operates hotels and resorts under the Grand Hyatt Erawan Bangkok, IBIS, JW Marriott Bangkok, The Naka Island, Courtyard by Marriott Bangkok, Holiday Inn Pattaya, IBIS Styles, Novotel Bangkok Sukhumvit 4, Holiday Inn Cebu City, Mercure Hotels, and HOP INN names. It also rents commercial retail property under the name Erawan Bangkok, as well as a shopping plaza and one office building. In addition, the company is involved in restaurant business, under Man Ho Bistro, a Chinese culinary eatery; and Chisana Nami, a modern teppanyaki. The company was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Erawan Group reported revenue of 7.9B THB in FY2025 versus 1.5B THB in FY2021, a compound +51.9%/yr. Reported net income was 838M THB in FY2025.
of which total revenue +4.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ERW screens 19% overvalued. Compare with Marriott International, Inc →
Peer Group
Lodging · 168 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $369.05 | $135.64 | -63% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $328.48 | $123.67 | -62% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $159.87 | $85.18 | -47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $191.00 | $47.69 | -75% |
| H World Group HTHT | $42.67 | $47.55 | +11% |
| Accor SA AC | €47.25 | €39.26 | -17% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹743.20 | ₹260.68 | -65% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $78.54 | $24.02 | -69% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 113,500 KRW | 36,890 KRW | -67% |
| Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 | 16.00 SAR | 11.64 SAR | -27% |
Compare The Erawan Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is The Erawan Group (ERW) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of ERW?
What is the quality score of ERW?
What is the revenue of The Erawan Group (ERW)?
What is the net profit margin of ERW?
Does The Erawan Group pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track The Erawan Group and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.