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Espe S.p.A. (ESPE) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · IT · Market cap €72.8M

ES Espe S.p.A. ESPE · MI
Price€5.74
Fair Value€12.27
Upside+113.8%
Quality49/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 8.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Moderate moat 63/100
Evidence: High Range €5.12 – €22.72 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Share price +4.0% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 114% undervalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (€5.12 to €22.72). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (8 months)

€6.10 €2.80 Fair Value €12.27 Dec 2025 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

8‑month range €2.80 – €6.10 · fair‑value band €5.12 – €22.72 · the €5.74 price screens below the €12.27 fair value. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Espe S.p.A. (ESPE) currently trades at €5.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.27, implying the stock looks roughly 113.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Espe S.p.A. generated revenue of €87.1M at a net margin of 8.2%. Revenue grew 192.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 42.8%. Net debt stands at €17.1M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €5.12 (bear case) to €22.72 (bull case); at €5.74, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 113% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at 114%, ESPE screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €0.1100 80
Residual Income €3.31 €4.80 €36.00 76
ROIC Compounder €7.68 €10.64 €14.03 72
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €0.1600 38
Owner Earnings €1.72 €3.87 €7.62 31
5Y Revenue Exit €5.83 €12.22 €25.71 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €7.64 €15.85 €32.03 41
5Y P/E Exit €5.53 €14.87 €27.90 38
10Y Revenue Exit €3.25 €11.19 €17.29 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €4.67 €14.49 €32.69 37
10Y P/E Exit €3.36 €10.63 €23.18 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €3.97 €27.72 €38.90 54
Lynch FV €14.32 €20.46 €26.59 50
PEG = 1.0 €14.32 €20.46 €26.59 46
EPV €6.21 €7.02 €7.67 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €1.04 €1.75 €2.27 70
DDM Multi-Stage €1.04 €1.66 €1.88 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €9.21 €12.27 €15.34 63
P/S Multiple €7.45 €9.94 €12.42 58
P/B Multiple €5.56 €7.41 €9.27 55
EV/EBIT €13.42 €18.07 €22.71 53
EV/EBITDA €11.96 €16.11 €20.27 54
EV/Revenue €8.52 €12.39 €16.26 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.8200 €1.10 €1.65 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €0.1100 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income €3.31 €4.80 €36.00 76
ROIC Compounder €7.68 €10.64 €14.03 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €18.73 €26.76 €34.79 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€26.76) versus Asset-Based (€1.10). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €87.1M
Revenue growth (YoY) +193%
Net margin 8.2%
Return on equity 42.8%
Free cash flow €265K FY2025
P/E ratio 10.3 as of Jul 4, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 14.6%
EPS (TTM) €0.5800
EPS growth (YoY) +109%
Net debt €17.1M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82

Profitability 66
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 23
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 22
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 94
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 93
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 65
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Espe S.p.A. produces, installs, and manages industrial electric systems worldwide. The company designs and installs photovoltaic systems, including utility scale, rooftop PV, and off-grid systems; customized BESS solutions for commercial and industrial, utility scale, and stand-alone systems; wind power systems; system integrator; and biomass solutions.

Full company description

Espe S.p.A. produces, installs, and manages industrial electric systems worldwide. The company designs and installs photovoltaic systems, including utility scale, rooftop PV, and off-grid systems; customized BESS solutions for commercial and industrial, utility scale, and stand-alone systems; wind power systems; system integrator; and biomass solutions. It also offers energy systems, including large ground-mounted systems, commercial and industrial installations, renewable energy communities, and agrivoltaics systems. In addition, the company offers power skids, and power shelter substations; turbines for hydroelectric plants; and biomass co-generators. Espe S.p.A. was founded in 1974 and is based in Grantorto, Italy.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Espe S.p.A. reported revenue of €87.0M in FY2025 versus €18.1M in FY2021, a compound +48.1%/yr. Reported net income was €7.1M in FY2025, compounding +214.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€87.0M
Latest YoY
+71.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+25.5%
Revenue +48.1%/yr
FY21 €18.1M
FY22 €44.0M
FY23 €43.3M
FY24 €50.7M
FY25 €87.0M
Net income +214.4%/yr
FY21 €72.6K
FY22 €224K
FY23 €1.6M
FY24 €3.5M
FY25 €7.1M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Espe S.p.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ESPE

Peer Group

Engineering & Construction · 838 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside +114% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 43% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 193% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.46× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 4.22× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.97× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 319.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 6.1× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 15
FUTURE 100 · sector 14
PAST 100 · sector 26
HEALTH 77 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 50 · sector 43

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹4,020 ₹1,994 -50%
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 357,500 KRW 261,411 KRW -27%
Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 113,700 KRW 61,453 KRW -46%
Samsung E&A Co 028050 49,300 KRW 43,624 KRW -12%
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL ₹228.50 ₹48.92 -79%
Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 18,400 KRW 6,507 KRW -65%
KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 99,800 KRW 19,346 KRW -81%
GS Engineering & Construction Corporation 006360 35,200 KRW 23,135 KRW -34%
DL E&C Co 375500 73,500 KRW 148,433 KRW +102%
KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering Co 051600 46,350 KRW 43,924 KRW -5%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Espe S.p.A. (ESPE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €12.27 versus a price of €5.74, about +114% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ESPE?
Our model-based fair value for Espe S.p.A. is €12.27 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €5.74.
What is the quality score of ESPE?
Espe S.p.A. has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Espe S.p.A. (ESPE)?
Espe S.p.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €87.1M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ESPE?
The net profit margin of Espe S.p.A. is about 8.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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