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EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what EXCO Resources Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Valuation from Aug 13, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Energy · US · ISIN US2692796004

ER EXCO Resources Inc logo Thin data Aug 13, 2026

EXCO Resources Inc

EXCE · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $39.88 · Strongly undervalued (+58%)
!Quality 53/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −9.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -46.4% net margin (TTM)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (7/8)
!Moderate moat 49/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$28.25 $0.0002 Fair Value $39.88 Jul 2019 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0002 – $28.25 · fair‑value band $24.97 – $54.80 · the $25.30 price screens below the $39.88 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Company profile

EXCO Resources, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of onshore oil and natural gas properties with a focus on shale resource plays in North Louisiana, East Texas, South Texas, Appalachia and internationally. The company also offers hydraulic fracturing services.

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EXCO Resources, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of onshore oil and natural gas properties with a focus on shale resource plays in North Louisiana, East Texas, South Texas, Appalachia and internationally. The company also offers hydraulic fracturing services. EXCO Resources, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock analysis

EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE) currently trades at $25.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $39.88, implying the stock looks roughly 36.6% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 5 models at a data quality of 88/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $24.97 (bear) to $54.80 (bull), the price of $25.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

EXCO Resources Inc reported revenue of $394M in FY2018 versus $660M in FY2014, a compound −12.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$183M in FY2018.

Key figures

Market cap $549M · P/S ratio 1.10 · EPS (TTM) $−80.23 · Net margin −46.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −29.7% · Operating margin 43.3% · Revenue (TTM) $394M · Revenue growth (YoY) +54.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 58%, EXCE screens cheaper than that median.

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70

Profitability 12
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 10
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 79
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 91
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+38.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.1%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−259.0% (2012) → −14.3% (2017)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2018 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 308 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside +58% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) −46% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 43% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 54% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 1.39× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 2.3× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 9
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 72

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $129.34 $90.15 −30%
CNOOC Limited 0883 HK$23.84 HK$39.90 +67%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ $47.64 $52.40 +10%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $141.84 $165.02 +16%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $57.36 $33.34 −42%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $185.65 $242.64 +31%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $48.04 $52.84 +10%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$31.13 A$23.59 −24%
EQT Corporation EQT $51.06 $56.17 +10%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $335.74 $318.28 −5%

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EXCO Resources Inc · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "EXCO Resources Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXCE

Frequently asked questions

Is EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $39.88 versus a price of $25.30, about +58% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EXCE?
Our model-based fair value for EXCO Resources Inc is $39.88 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $25.30.
What is the quality score of EXCE?
EXCO Resources Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $39.88 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.97, optimistic scenario $54.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the EXCO Resources Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $39.88, about +58% upside versus a price of $25.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $24.97, optimistic scenario $54.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
EXCO Resources Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $394M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For EXCO Resources Inc it is $39.88 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026), against a price of $25.30. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is EXCO Resources Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 13, 2026, EXCE trades below its calculated fair value: price $25.30, fair value $39.88, a gap of about +58% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXCE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($25.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($39.88). For EXCO Resources Inc the two are $14.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is EXCO Resources Inc worth?
The market values EXCO Resources Inc at about $549M (market capitalisation, as of Aug 13, 2026). Per share that is $25.30; our models calculate a fair value of $39.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXCE?
Our models span a range for EXCO Resources Inc: cautious scenario $24.97, base $39.88, optimistic $54.80 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026, price $25.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
Balance-sheet figures for EXCO Resources Inc (as of Aug 13, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXCE from its 52-week high?
EXCO Resources Inc trades at $25.30, about 10% below its 52-week high of $28.25 and 85% above the low of $13.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $39.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to EXCO Resources Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is EXCO Resources Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 13, 2026: price $25.30, calculated fair value $39.88 (+58%), Quality Score 53/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXCE calculated?
We run EXCO Resources Inc through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $39.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. EXCO Resources Inc currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $25.30. Our model-based fair value is $39.88, about +58% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with EXCO Resources Inc right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($24.97 to $54.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of EXCO Resources Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
The market capitalisation of EXCO Resources Inc is $549M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of EXCO Resources Inc is 1.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
Earnings per share at EXCO Resources Inc are $−80.23. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
The net margin of EXCO Resources Inc is −46.4% (fiscal year 2018). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of EXCO Resources Inc is −29.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
The operating margin of EXCO Resources Inc is 43.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
Revenue at EXCO Resources Inc is growing +54.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE) generate?
The free cash flow of EXCO Resources Inc is −$17.2M (fiscal year 2018). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE) carry?
The net debt of EXCO Resources Inc is $427M (fiscal year 2018). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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