EXCO Resources, Inc (EXCE) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $432M
EXCO Resources, Inc
EXCE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 5 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +6.8% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 70% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($24.97). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($24.97 to $54.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0002 – $25.38 · fair‑value band $24.97 – $54.80 · the $23.50 price screens below the $39.88 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
EXCO Resources, Inc (EXCE) currently trades at $23.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $39.88, implying the stock looks roughly 69.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, EXCO Resources, Inc generated revenue of $394M at a net margin of -46.4%. Revenue grew 54.1% year over year. Net debt stands at $427M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $24.97 (bear case) to $54.80 (bull case); at $23.50, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 114% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at 70%, EXCE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 5 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based ($98.62) versus Multiples ($61.82). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (67).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
EXCO Resources, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of onshore oil and natural gas properties with a focus on shale resource plays in North Louisiana, East Texas, South Texas, Appalachia and internationally. The company also offers hydraulic fracturing services.
Full company description
EXCO Resources, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of onshore oil and natural gas properties with a focus on shale resource plays in North Louisiana, East Texas, South Texas, Appalachia and internationally. The company also offers hydraulic fracturing services. EXCO Resources, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2014 – FY2018 · reported fiscal years
EXCO Resources, Inc reported revenue of $394M in FY2018 versus $660M in FY2014, a compound −12.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$183M in FY2018.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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