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EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of EXCO Resources Inc stock $20.61, price $24.01, that is 14.2% below the price, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Energy US

ER EXCO Resources Inc logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

EXCO Resources Inc

EXCE · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 14% below what the stock costs today.

Ranks above peers (5/8)
Revenue last quarter +54% vs. a year ago.
Quality 47/100
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Fair value $20.61 · Overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −9.1 %/yr in USD)
Loss-making · -46.4% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 36/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ CyclicalEstimate⚠ Thinly traded
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$28.25 $0.0002 Fair Value $20.61 Jul 2019 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0002 – $28.25 · fair‑value band $15.46 – $25.76 · the $24.01 price screens above the $20.61 fair value. 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

EXCO Resources, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of onshore oil and natural gas properties with a focus on shale resource plays in North Louisiana, East Texas, South Texas, Appalachia and internationally.

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The company also offers hydraulic fracturing services. EXCO Resources, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock analysis

EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE) currently trades at $24.01, while our estimate is $20.61, 14% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $15.46 (bear) to $25.76 (bull), the price of $24.01 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

EXCO Resources Inc reported revenue of $394M in FY2018 versus $660M in FY2014, a compound −12.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$183M in FY2018.

Key figures

Market cap $521M Small · P/S ratio 1.10 · EPS (TTM) $−158.42 · Net margin −46.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −29.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 43.3% · Revenue (TTM) $394M · Revenue growth (YoY) +54.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at −14%, EXCE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $15.46 Fair Value $20.61 Bull $25.76
Price $24.01 · Downside -14.2%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 12
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 67
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 10
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 93
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 48
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 63
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 77
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+38.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.1%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−259.0% (2012) → −14.3% (2017)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2018 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

EXCE screens overvalued: fair value 14% below the price. Compare with ConocoPhillips explores for, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 286 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Above median
Fair Value upside −14.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −17.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −46.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 43.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 54.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 1.32× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 2.2× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)14 · sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 97
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 72

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $178.08 $242.64 +36% vs EXCE
CNOOC Limited 0883 HK$22.76 HK$26.80 +18% vs EXCE
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ $48.24 $53.41 +11% vs EXCE
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $151.51 $166.94 +10% vs EXCE
EQT Corporation EQT $52.00 $54.90 +6% vs EXCE
Woodside Energy Group WDS $21.07 $19.39 −8% vs EXCE
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $43.41 $39.64 −9% vs EXCE
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $135.59 $92.89 −31% vs EXCE
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $56.90 $33.18 −42% vs EXCE
Aker BP ASA AKRBP kr 314.60 kr 127.39 −60% vs EXCE

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EXCO Resources Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "EXCO Resources Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXCE

Frequently asked questions

Is EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $20.61 versus a price of $24.01, about 14% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EXCE?
Our estimate for EXCO Resources Inc is $20.61 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.01.
What is the quality score of EXCE?
EXCO Resources Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $20.61 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $15.46, optimistic scenario $25.76. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the EXCO Resources Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $20.61, about 14% lower versus a price of $24.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.46, optimistic scenario $25.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
EXCO Resources Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $394M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For EXCO Resources Inc it is $20.61 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $24.01.
Is EXCO Resources Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, EXCE trades above its calculated fair value: price $24.01, fair value $20.61, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXCE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.61). For EXCO Resources Inc the two are $3.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is EXCO Resources Inc worth?
The market values EXCO Resources Inc at about $521M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $24.01; our models calculate a fair value of $20.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXCE?
Our models span a range for EXCO Resources Inc: cautious scenario $15.46, base $20.61, optimistic $25.76 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $24.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
Balance-sheet figures for EXCO Resources Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXCE from its 52-week high?
EXCO Resources Inc trades at $24.01, about 15% below its 52-week high of $28.25 and 52% above the low of $15.76 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to EXCO Resources Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is EXCO Resources Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $24.01, calculated fair value $20.61 (−14%), Quality Score 47/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. EXCO Resources Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $24.01. Our estimate is $20.61, about 14% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with EXCO Resources Inc right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of EXCO Resources Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
The market capitalisation of EXCO Resources Inc is $521M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of EXCO Resources Inc is 1.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
Earnings per share at EXCO Resources Inc are $−158.42. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
The net margin of EXCO Resources Inc is −46.4% (fiscal year 2018). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of EXCO Resources Inc is −29.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
The operating margin of EXCO Resources Inc is 43.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE)?
Revenue at EXCO Resources Inc is growing +54.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE) generate?
The free cash flow of EXCO Resources Inc is −$17.2M (fiscal year 2018). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does EXCO Resources Inc (EXCE) carry?
The net debt of EXCO Resources Inc is $427M (fiscal year 2018). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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