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Exceed World Inc (EXDW) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Exceed World Inc $0.13, price $0.29, upside -55.6%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Defensive · US · ISIN US30067B1026

EW Exceed World Inc logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Exceed World Inc

EXDW · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.1300 · Strongly overvalued (−56%)
!Quality 44/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −16.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -79.8% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/9)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$3.00 $0.0118 Fair Value $0.1300 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0118 – $3.00 · fair‑value band $0.0900 – $0.1600 · the $0.2925 price screens above the $0.1300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Exceed World, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides education services to pre-school children, students, and adult learners in Japan.

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Exceed World, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides education services to pre-school children, students, and adult learners in Japan. The company offers a range of e-learning education programs that include pre-school learning resources, learning resources supplementing elementary school, junior high school and senior high school curriculum, preparation courses for university entrance examinations, professional qualification examinations, and English learning, as well as supporting services through Force Club, an internet platform. It also provides online game services through Connector Plan. The company was formerly known as Brilliant Acquisition, Inc. and changed its name to Exceed World, Inc. in January 2016. Exceed World, Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Suita, Japan. Exceed World, Inc. is a subsidiary of Force Internationale Limited.

Stock analysis

Exceed World Inc (EXDW) currently trades at $0.2925, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1300, implying the stock looks roughly 125.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.0900 (bear) to $0.1600 (bull), the price of $0.2925 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Exceed World Inc reported revenue of $8.6M in FY2025 versus $28.4M in FY2021, a compound −25.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$6.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $9.6M · P/S ratio 1.11 · EPS (TTM) $−0.2100 · Net margin −79.8% · Return on equity −46.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% · Operating margin −224% · Revenue (TTM) $8.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 2,379% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at −56%, EXDW screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.0900 Fair Value $0.1300 Bull $0.1600
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.1700 $0.2200 $0.3400 53
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.1700 $0.2200 $0.3400 53

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 3
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 15
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 81
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 76
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−64.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−37.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+81.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−4.1% (2020) → −79.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

EXDW screens 125% overvalued. Compare with New Oriental Education & Technology Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Education & Training Services · 142 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −56% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −20% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −80% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −78% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.08× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.87× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.11× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 27
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 61

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDU $54.74 $63.95 +17%
TAL Education Group TAL $11.87 $33.07 +179%
Laureate Education, Inc LAUR $36.13 $39.95 +11%
Grand Canyon Education, Inc LOPE $146.78 $161.46 +10%
Physicswallah Limited PWL ₹136.11 ₹32.25 −76%
Covista Inc CVSA $123.00 $135.45 +10%
Stride, Inc LRN $78.69 $140.28 +78%
Universal Technical Institute, Inc UTI $20.41 $21.53 +5%
Perdoceo Education Corporation PRDO $31.23 $41.28 +32%
Strategic Education, Inc STRA $76.47 $105.48 +38%

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Exceed World Inc · Fair Value
$0.1300 −125%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Exceed World Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXDW

Frequently asked questions

Is Exceed World Inc (EXDW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1300 versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $0.2925, about −56% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EXDW?
Our model-based fair value for Exceed World Inc is $0.1300 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 18, 2026): $0.2925.
What is the quality score of EXDW?
Exceed World Inc has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Exceed World Inc (EXDW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1300 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0900, optimistic scenario $0.1600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Exceed World Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1300, about −56% upside versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $0.2925 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.0900, optimistic scenario $0.1600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Exceed World Inc (EXDW)?
Exceed World Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.6M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Exceed World Inc (EXDW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Exceed World Inc it is $0.1300 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.2925. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Exceed World Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, EXDW trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.2925, fair value $0.1300, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXDW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.2925); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1300). For Exceed World Inc the two are $0.1625 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Exceed World Inc worth?
The market values Exceed World Inc at about $9.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.2925; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXDW?
Our models span a range for Exceed World Inc: cautious scenario $0.0900, base $0.1300, optimistic $0.1600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.2925). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Exceed World Inc (EXDW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Exceed World Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −46.3%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXDW from its 52-week high?
Exceed World Inc trades at $0.2925, at its 52-week high of $0.2925 and 2,379% above the low of $0.0118 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.1300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Exceed World Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value New Oriental Education & Technology Group, TAL Education Group, Laureate Education, Inc, Grand Canyon Education, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Exceed World Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.2925, calculated fair value $0.1300 (−56%), Quality Score 44/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXDW calculated?
We run Exceed World Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.1300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Exceed World Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Exceed World Inc (EXDW)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 18, 2026 and stands at $0.2925. Our model-based fair value is $0.1300, about −56% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Exceed World Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.1600). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Exceed World Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Exceed World Inc (EXDW)?
The market capitalisation of Exceed World Inc is $9.6M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Exceed World Inc (EXDW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Exceed World Inc is 1.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Exceed World Inc (EXDW)?
Earnings per share at Exceed World Inc are $−0.2100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Exceed World Inc (EXDW)?
The net margin of Exceed World Inc is −79.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Exceed World Inc (EXDW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Exceed World Inc is −46.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Exceed World Inc (EXDW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Exceed World Inc is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Exceed World Inc (EXDW)?
The operating margin of Exceed World Inc is −224% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Exceed World Inc (EXDW)?
Revenue at Exceed World Inc is growing −77.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −37.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Exceed World Inc (EXDW)?
Earnings per share at Exceed World Inc are growing −63.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Exceed World Inc (EXDW) generate?
The free cash flow of Exceed World Inc is −$8.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Exceed World Inc (EXDW) hold?
Exceed World Inc holds more cash than debt, $5.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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