Exasol AG (EXL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Exasol AG €2.51, price €1.76, upside +42.6%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.61 – €18.90 · fair‑value band €1.89 – €3.30 · the €1.76 price screens below the €2.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Exasol AG, a technology company, engages in the provision of an analytics engine to access and analyze a company's data in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It offers Exasol analytics engine, an in-memory engine designed for near real-time analytics, data warehousing, and AI/ML workloads.
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Exasol AG, a technology company, engages in the provision of an analytics engine to access and analyze a company's data in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It offers Exasol analytics engine, an in-memory engine designed for near real-time analytics, data warehousing, and AI/ML workloads. It serves e-commerce and retail, banking and insurance, hedge funds, and healthcare and pharma industries. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Nuremberg, Germany.
Stock analysis
Exasol AG (EXL) currently trades at €1.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.51, implying the stock looks roughly 29.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €3.02 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the €1.76 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €0.9200, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €1.89 (bear) to €3.30 (bull), the price of €1.76 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Exasol AG reported revenue of €41.8M in FY2025 versus €27.5M in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was €3.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €57.2M · P/E ratio 15.6 · P/S ratio 1.12 · EPS (TTM) €0.1126 · Net margin 7.2% · Return on equity 48.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −35.8% · Operating margin 5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 43%, EXL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €1.89Fair Value €2.51Bull €3.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0808 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−120.8% (2020) → 4.0% (2025)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 383 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+43% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)49% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Exasol AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXL
Frequently asked questions
Is Exasol AG (EXL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.51 versus a price of €1.76, about +43% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EXL?
Our model-based fair value for Exasol AG is €2.51 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.76.
What is the quality score of EXL?
Exasol AG has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Exasol AG (EXL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €2.51 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €1.89, optimistic scenario €3.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Exasol AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €2.51, about +43% upside versus a price of €1.76 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €1.89, optimistic scenario €3.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Exasol AG (EXL)?
Exasol AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €41.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Exasol AG (EXL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Exasol AG would have to grow free cash flow by -0.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXL use?
Our models discount Exasol AG at 14.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.51, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Exasol AG that is -0.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Exasol AG (EXL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Exasol AG grew +12.1 % a year. The price currently implies -0.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Exasol AG (EXL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Exasol AG (-0.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Exasol AG (EXL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.22 %: that much free cash flow Exasol AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Exasol AG (EXL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Exasol AG it is €2.51 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €1.76. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Exasol AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, EXL trades below its calculated fair value: price €1.76, fair value €2.51, a gap of about +43% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€2.51). For Exasol AG the two are €0.7500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Exasol AG worth?
The market values Exasol AG at about €57.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €1.76; our models calculate a fair value of €2.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXL?
Our models span a range for Exasol AG: cautious scenario €1.89, base €2.51, optimistic €3.30 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €1.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EXL?
Exasol AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €2.51 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 8.4, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 19.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Exasol AG (EXL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Exasol AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 48.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXL from its 52-week high?
Exasol AG trades at €1.76, about 47% below its 52-week high of €3.29 and at the low of €1.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €2.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Exasol AG?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Exasol AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €1.76, calculated fair value €2.51 (+43%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXL calculated?
We run Exasol AG through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €2.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Exasol AG currently trades 43 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Exasol AG (EXL)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €1.76. Our model-based fair value is €2.51, about +43% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Exasol AG right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€1.89). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Exasol AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Exasol AG (EXL)?
The market capitalisation of Exasol AG is €57.2M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Exasol AG (EXL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Exasol AG is 1.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Exasol AG (EXL)?
Earnings per share at Exasol AG are €0.1126 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Exasol AG (EXL)?
The net margin of Exasol AG is 7.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Exasol AG (EXL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Exasol AG is 48.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Exasol AG (EXL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Exasol AG is −35.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Exasol AG (EXL)?
The operating margin of Exasol AG is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Exasol AG (EXL)?
Revenue at Exasol AG is growing +0.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Exasol AG (EXL)?
Earnings per share at Exasol AG are growing +229% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Exasol AG (EXL) hold?
Exasol AG holds more cash than debt, €18.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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