Fable Media Group AB (FABLE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Fable Media Group AB SEK 13.06, price SEK 6.38, upside +104.7%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 3.52 – kr 33.47 · fair‑value band kr 7.63 – kr 17.88 · the kr 6.38 price screens below the kr 13.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Fable Media Group AB invests in marketing businesses. It is involved in the promotion of online sports betting operators. The company was formerly known as Future Gaming Group International AB and changed its name to Fable Media Group AB in January 2024. Fable Media Group AB is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Fable Media Group AB (FABLE) currently trades at kr 6.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 13.06, implying the stock looks roughly 51.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 18.33 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 6.38 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 2.19, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 7.63 (bear) to kr 17.88 (bull), the price of kr 6.38 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Fable Media Group AB reported revenue of 65.5M SEK in FY2025 versus 34.8M SEK in FY2021, a compound +17.1%/yr. Reported net income was 31.9M SEK in FY2025, compounding +33.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 217M SEK (≈ $21.8M) · P/E ratio 8.0 · P/S ratio 3.88 · EPS (TTM) kr 0.8000 · Dividend yield 11.8% · Net margin 48.7% · Return on equity 25.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 34.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 24% fair-value upside, at 105%, FABLE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 7.63Fair Value kr 13.06Bull kr 17.88
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.0367 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−30.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−15.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−27.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)11.8%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.44% → 67%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 57 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+105% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Return on assets15% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)42% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)55% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)11.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)8.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.95× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fable Media Group AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FABLE
Frequently asked questions
Is Fable Media Group AB (FABLE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 13.06 versus a price of kr 6.38, about +105% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FABLE?
Our model-based fair value for Fable Media Group AB is kr 13.06 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 6.38.
What is the quality score of FABLE?
Fable Media Group AB has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 13.06 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 7.63, optimistic scenario kr 17.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Fable Media Group AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 13.06, about +105% upside versus a price of kr 6.38 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 7.63, optimistic scenario kr 17.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
Fable Media Group AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 64.2M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Fable Media Group AB pay a dividend?
Fable Media Group AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.76% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Fable Media Group AB would have to grow free cash flow by +0.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +17.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FABLE use?
Our models discount Fable Media Group AB at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.70, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Fable Media Group AB that is +0.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Fable Media Group AB (FABLE) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Fable Media Group AB grew +17.1 % a year. The price currently implies +0.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Fable Media Group AB (FABLE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Fable Media Group AB (+0.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.02 %: that much free cash flow Fable Media Group AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Fable Media Group AB it is kr 13.06 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 6.38. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Fable Media Group AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, FABLE trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 6.38, fair value kr 13.06, a gap of about +105% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FABLE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 6.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 13.06). For Fable Media Group AB the two are kr 6.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Fable Media Group AB worth?
The market values Fable Media Group AB at about 217M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 6.38; our models calculate a fair value of kr 13.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FABLE?
Our models span a range for Fable Media Group AB: cautious scenario kr 7.63, base kr 13.06, optimistic kr 17.88 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 6.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FABLE?
Fable Media Group AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 13.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Fable Media Group AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 25.9%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FABLE from its 52-week high?
Fable Media Group AB trades at kr 6.38, about 12% below its 52-week high of kr 7.24 and 72% above the low of kr 3.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 13.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Fable Media Group AB?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Flutter Entertainment plc, Evolution AB, The Lottery Corporation, Rush Street Interactive, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Fable Media Group AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 6.38, calculated fair value kr 13.06 (+105%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FABLE calculated?
We run Fable Media Group AB through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 13.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Fable Media Group AB currently trades 105 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 6.38. Our model-based fair value is kr 13.06, about +105% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Fable Media Group AB right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 7.63). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (kr 7.63 to kr 17.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Fable Media Group AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
The market capitalisation of Fable Media Group AB is 217M SEK (≈ $21.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Fable Media Group AB is 3.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
Earnings per share at Fable Media Group AB are kr 0.8000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
The dividend yield of Fable Media Group AB is 11.8% (payout 93.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
The net margin of Fable Media Group AB is 48.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Fable Media Group AB is 25.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Fable Media Group AB is 34.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
The operating margin of Fable Media Group AB is 54.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
Revenue at Fable Media Group AB is growing −7.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Fable Media Group AB (FABLE)?
Earnings per share at Fable Media Group AB are growing −46.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Fable Media Group AB (FABLE) carry?
The net debt of Fable Media Group AB is 53.4M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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