AGTech Holdings (8279) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$8.4B
Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +28.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 47% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.5200). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- The models converge in a tight band (HK$0.4900 to HK$0.5200), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1450 – HK$0.9400 · fair‑value band HK$0.4900 – HK$0.5200 · the HK$0.9400 price screens above the HK$0.5000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
Analysis
AGTech Holdings (8279) currently trades at HK$0.9400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5000, implying the stock looks roughly 46.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, AGTech Holdings generated revenue of HK$761M at a net margin of -5.2%. Revenue grew 13.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$5.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.4900 (bear case) to HK$0.5200 (bull case); at HK$0.9400, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -47%, 8279 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$13.11) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.1500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AGTech Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides digital banking and payment, and other related services in the Mainland of China, Macau, and internationally. It operates through Digital Payment and Related Businesses, Full-scale Banking Business, and Lottery Business segments.
Full company description
AGTech Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides digital banking and payment, and other related services in the Mainland of China, Macau, and internationally. It operates through Digital Payment and Related Businesses, Full-scale Banking Business, and Lottery Business segments. The Digital Payment and Related Businesses segment offers payment card and ancillary services, as well as e-wallet services; acquiring services for other payment service providers and merchants; engages in the sale and leasing of payment terminals and equipment; and other related services. The Full-scale Banking Business segment provides digital banking services for individuals and SMEs, wealth management, and other related services. The Lottery Operation segment engages in the sale and leasing of lottery hardware, including the provision of related after-sale services; offline lottery distribution and ancillary activities; and other integrated business. It offers local consumer services, such as lifestyle, culture and entertainment, marketing technical, and e-commerce services; and engages in travel agency and related businesses, as well as research, development, and sale of sports lottery terminals and systems. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. AGTech Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Ali Fortune Investment Holding Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AGTech Holdings reported revenue of HK$761M in FY2025 versus HK$253M in FY2021, a compound +31.6%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$39.7M in FY2025.
8279 screens 47% overvalued. Compare with Flutter Entertainment plc →
Peer Group
Gambling · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gambling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flutter Entertainment plc FLUT | $110.66 | $88.33 | -20% |
| Evolution AB EVO | kr 684.00 | kr 974.80 | +43% |
| The Lottery Corporation TLC | A$5.62 | A$2.99 | -47% |
| Super Group SGHC | $14.73 | $9.39 | -36% |
| Lottomatica Group LTMC | €25.62 | €16.38 | -36% |
| Light & Wonder, Inc LNWO | $78.94 | $70.17 | -11% |
| Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN | $83.95 | $94.74 | +13% |
| FDJ United FDJ | €23.24 | €20.97 | -10% |
| Brightstar Lottery PLC BRSL | $10.71 | $17.61 | +64% |
| Tabcorp Holdings TAH | A$0.8750 | A$0.3700 | -58% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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