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AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of AGTech Holdings Ltd HK$3.09, price HK$1.22, upside +153.3%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · HK · ISIN BMG0135Z1032

AH AGTech Holdings Ltd logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

AGTech Holdings Ltd

8279 · HK

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value HK$3.09 · Strongly undervalued (+153%)
!Quality 57/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +36.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -5.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (7/11)
!Narrow moat 17/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$1.61 HK$0.1450 Fair Value HK$3.09 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1450 – HK$1.61 · fair‑value band HK$2.57 – HK$3.90 · the HK$1.22 price screens below the HK$3.09 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

AGTech Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides digital banking and payment, and other related services in the Mainland of China, Macau, and internationally. It operates through Digital Payment and Related Businesses, Full-scale Banking Business, and Lottery Business segments.

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AGTech Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides digital banking and payment, and other related services in the Mainland of China, Macau, and internationally. It operates through Digital Payment and Related Businesses, Full-scale Banking Business, and Lottery Business segments. The Digital Payment and Related Businesses segment offers payment card and ancillary services, as well as e-wallet services; acquiring services for other payment service providers and merchants; engages in the sale and leasing of payment terminals and equipment; and other related services. The Full-scale Banking Business segment provides digital banking services for individuals and SMEs, wealth management, and other related services. The Lottery Operation segment engages in the sale and leasing of lottery hardware, including the provision of related after-sale services; offline lottery distribution and ancillary activities; and other integrated business. It offers local consumer services, such as lifestyle, culture and entertainment, marketing technical, and e-commerce services; and engages in travel agency and related businesses, as well as research, development, and sale of sports lottery terminals and systems. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. AGTech Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Ali Fortune Investment Holding Limited.

Stock analysis

AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279) currently trades at HK$1.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.09, implying the stock looks roughly 60.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$10.65 per share, and 6 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$1.22 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.4700, and 6 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$2.57 (bear) to HK$3.90 (bull), the price of HK$1.22 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

AGTech Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$761M in FY2025 versus HK$253M in FY2021, a compound +31.6%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$39.7M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$14.0B (≈ $1.8B) · P/S ratio 11.1 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0100 · Net margin −5.2% · Return on equity −2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.2% · Operating margin 10.0% · Revenue (TTM) HK$761M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 539% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 24% fair-value upside, at 153%, 8279 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$2.57 Fair Value HK$3.09 Bull HK$3.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$6.66 HK$10.03 HK$19.06 77
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.53 HK$3.04 HK$3.83 77
Growth DCF HK$6.33 HK$10.65 HK$18.12 76
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$6.66 HK$10.03 HK$19.06 77
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.50 HK$2.97 HK$3.70 74
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.53 HK$3.04 HK$3.83 77
10Y Revenue Exit HK$3.89 HK$5.22 HK$6.09 68
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$3.91 HK$5.28 HK$7.10 69
Earnings-Based
EPV HK$0.4700 HK$0.4700 HK$0.4700 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT HK$0.4900 HK$0.5100 HK$0.5200 66
EV/EBITDA HK$0.5200 HK$0.5500 HK$0.5800 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.4800 HK$0.4900 HK$0.5000 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1100 HK$0.1500 HK$0.2200 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$6.33 HK$10.65 HK$18.12 76
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder HK$0.4700 HK$0.4700 HK$0.4700 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82

Profitability 7
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 86
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 88
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.7% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−81.1% (2020) → 5.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−39.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −41.2% a year for the price.

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Compare AGTech Holdings Ltd with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 57 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside +155% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 14% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.69× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.33× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.3× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 53
FUTURE (revenue growth)69 · sector 10
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 67

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Gambling

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10 more Gambling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Flutter Entertainment plc FLUT $88.62 $148.10 +67%
Evolution AB EVO kr 865.40 kr 2,156 +149%
The Lottery Corporation TLC A$4.90 A$3.04 −38%
Rush Street Interactive, Inc RSI $21.22 $13.10 −38%
Super Group SGHC $12.35 $13.59 +10%
Light & Wonder, Inc LNWO $78.62 $97.27 +24%
Lottomatica Group LTMC €27.83 €30.61 +10%
Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN $79.49 $105.45 +33%
FDJ United FDJ €22.34 €24.57 +10%
Brightstar Lottery PLC BRSL $10.42 $17.61 +69%

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HK$3.09 +61%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AGTech Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8279

Frequently asked questions

Is AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.09 versus a price of HK$1.22, about +153% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8279?
Our model-based fair value for AGTech Holdings Ltd is HK$3.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.22.
What is the quality score of 8279?
AGTech Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.57, optimistic scenario HK$3.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AGTech Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.09, about +153% upside versus a price of HK$1.22 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.57, optimistic scenario HK$3.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
AGTech Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$761M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AGTech Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -39.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +36.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8279 use?
Our models discount AGTech Holdings Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AGTech Holdings Ltd that is -39.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AGTech Holdings Ltd grew +36.3 % a year. The price currently implies -39.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AGTech Holdings Ltd (-39.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 38.72 %: that much free cash flow AGTech Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AGTech Holdings Ltd it is HK$3.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$1.22. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AGTech Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 8279 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.22, fair value HK$3.09, a gap of about +153% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8279?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.09). For AGTech Holdings Ltd the two are HK$1.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AGTech Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values AGTech Holdings Ltd at about HK$14.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.22; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8279?
Our models span a range for AGTech Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.57, base HK$3.09, optimistic HK$3.90 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$1.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
Balance-sheet figures for AGTech Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8279 from its 52-week high?
AGTech Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.22, about 24% below its 52-week high of HK$1.61 and 539% above the low of HK$0.1910 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AGTech Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Flutter Entertainment plc, Evolution AB, The Lottery Corporation, Rush Street Interactive, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AGTech Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$1.22, calculated fair value HK$3.09 (+153%), Quality Score 57/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8279 calculated?
We run AGTech Holdings Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$3.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. AGTech Holdings Ltd currently trades 153 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$1.22. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.09, about +153% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AGTech Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.57). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of AGTech Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
The market capitalisation of AGTech Holdings Ltd is HK$14.0B (≈ $1.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AGTech Holdings Ltd is 11.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
Earnings per share at AGTech Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
The net margin of AGTech Holdings Ltd is −5.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AGTech Holdings Ltd is −2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AGTech Holdings Ltd is −1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
The operating margin of AGTech Holdings Ltd is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
Revenue at AGTech Holdings Ltd is growing +13.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279) hold?
AGTech Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$5.0B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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