Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Churchill Downs Incorporated stock $108, price $97.94, upside +10.3%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $73.95 – $147.58 · fair‑value band $34.63 – $164.24 · the $97.94 price screens below the $108.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Churchill Downs Incorporated operates live and historical racing entertainment venues, online wagering businesses, and regional casino gaming properties in the United States. It operates through three segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming.
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The Live and Historical Racing segment engages in live and historical pari-mutuel racing related activities at Churchill Downs Racetrack and its historical racing properties in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire; provides racing event-related services, including admissions, personal seat licenses, sponsorships, television rights, and other miscellaneous services, as well as food and beverages services.
The Wagering Services and Solutions engages in pari-mutuel wagers through TwinSpires, which operates the online horse racing wagering business for TwinSpires.com, BetAmerica.com, and other white-label platforms; facilitates dollar wagering; provides the Bloodstock Research Information Services platform for horse racing statistical data; offers streaming video of live horse races, replays, and an assortment of racing and handicapping information; and provides technology services to third parties.
This segment also operates retail and online sports betting businesses, United Tote, which manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for racetracks, OTBs, and other pari-mutuel wagering businesses, and Exacta, which provides central determinant system technology in HRMs. The Gaming segment operates the casino properties and associated racetracks, which include slot machines, table games, video lottery terminals, video poker, HRMs, ancillary food and beverage services, hotel services, commission on pari-mutuel wagering, racing event-related services, and other miscellaneous operations.
Churchill Downs Incorporated was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Stock analysis
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) currently trades at $97.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $108.00, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $108.67 per share, and 9 of the 23 models we run sit above the $97.94 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $38.94, and 14 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $34.63 (bear) to $164.24 (bull), the price of $97.94 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Churchill Downs Incorporated reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was $380M in FY2025, compounding +11.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.9B Mid · P/E ratio 16.7 · P/S ratio 2.29 · EPS (TTM) $5.86 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 13.8% · Return on equity 33.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 77 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 10%, CHDN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$34.63Fair Value $108.00Bull$164.24
Price $97.94 · Upside +10.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.63 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.2% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+28.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+27.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.9% vs 24.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 25%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.1% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: High returns on equity and positive cash flows support the focused horse racing operations after the divestments, yet thin evidence overall and elevated leverage remain the chief weakness.
Main risk: Federally regulated prediction markets could divert wagering revenue from Churchill Downs' pari-mutuel horse racing pools by offering event contracts without required track consent under the Interstate Horseracing Act.
Bull case: By focusing on its Kentucky Derby franchise and owned real estate Churchill Downs could strengthen its position in regulated pari-mutuel wagering and adapt to new formats through partnerships or technology enhancements.
Bear case: If prediction markets expand without consent and new casinos proliferate while HISA enforcement restricts simulcasts Churchill Downs' core racing and HRM operations could face sustained revenue pressure and operational constraints.
Churchill Downs is divesting nine regional casinos to reduce debt and concentrate on its horse racing operations. The CEO frames this as a proactive step, unlike peers burdened by REIT deals that amplify earnings volatility. Our models see the shares as undervalued, yet will the core racing business generate enough to replace the contribution from the sold assets?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 45 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Below median
Fair Value upside+10.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)33.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)13.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)36.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity5.02× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.7× · Pricier than median
P/B6.79× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $108.00 versus a price of $97.94, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CHDN?
Our model-based fair value for Churchill Downs Incorporated is $108.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $97.94.
What is the quality score of CHDN?
Churchill Downs Incorporated has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $108.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $34.63, optimistic scenario $164.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Churchill Downs Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $108.00, about +10% upside versus a price of $97.94 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $34.63, optimistic scenario $164.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
Churchill Downs Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Churchill Downs Incorporated pay a dividend?
Churchill Downs Incorporated currently shows a dividend yield of 0.45% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Churchill Downs Incorporated pays a dividend of $0.438 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Dec 5, 2025. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1993. The payout ratio is 6.9% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 7.5%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 10.14 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Churchill Downs Incorporated would have to grow free cash flow by +19.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CHDN use?
Our models discount Churchill Downs Incorporated at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Churchill Downs Incorporated that is +19.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Churchill Downs Incorporated grew +22.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +19.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Churchill Downs Incorporated (+19.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.52 %: that much free cash flow Churchill Downs Incorporated produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Churchill Downs Incorporated it is $108.00 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $97.94. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Churchill Downs Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CHDN trades below its calculated fair value: price $97.94, fair value $108.00, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHDN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($97.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($108.00). For Churchill Downs Incorporated the two are $10.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Churchill Downs Incorporated worth?
The market values Churchill Downs Incorporated at about $6.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $97.94; our models calculate a fair value of $108.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHDN?
Our models span a range for Churchill Downs Incorporated: cautious scenario $34.63, base $108.00, optimistic $164.24 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $97.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHDN?
Churchill Downs Incorporated trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $108.00 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 17.0 (reported for FY2025: 18.4). Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 6.8, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 11.7.
What is the PEG ratio of CHDN?
The PEG ratio of Churchill Downs Incorporated is 1.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Churchill Downs Incorporated (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 33.9%, debt of 5.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHDN from its 52-week high?
Churchill Downs Incorporated trades at $97.94, about 17% below its 52-week high of $117.59 and 32% above the low of $73.95 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $108.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Churchill Downs Incorporated?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Evolution AB, Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Lottomatica Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Churchill Downs Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $97.94, calculated fair value $108.00 (+10%), Quality Score 56/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHDN calculated?
We run Churchill Downs Incorporated through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $108.00 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Churchill Downs Incorporated currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $97.94. Our model-based fair value is $108.00, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Churchill Downs Incorporated right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($34.63 to $164.24). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) come from?
Earnings per share at Churchill Downs Incorporated grew +25.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.6 %, EBIT margin +8.1 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Churchill Downs Incorporated
How large is the market capitalisation of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
The market capitalisation of Churchill Downs Incorporated is $6.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Churchill Downs Incorporated is 2.29 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
Earnings per share at Churchill Downs Incorporated are $5.86 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
The dividend yield of Churchill Downs Incorporated is 0.4% (payout 6.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 7.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
The net margin of Churchill Downs Incorporated is 13.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Churchill Downs Incorporated is 33.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Churchill Downs Incorporated is 8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
The operating margin of Churchill Downs Incorporated is 36.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
Revenue at Churchill Downs Incorporated is growing +4.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)?
Earnings per share at Churchill Downs Incorporated are growing +14.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) carry?
The net debt of Churchill Downs Incorporated is $4.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026