Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $6.0B
Churchill Downs Incorporated
CHDN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $94.25 to $94.74 (+0.5%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +3.0% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($47.50 to $139.60). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $82.69 – $147.58 · fair‑value band $47.50 – $139.60 · the $87.86 price screens below the $94.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) currently trades at $87.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $94.74, implying the stock looks roughly 7.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Churchill Downs Incorporated generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of 13.2%. Revenue grew 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 35.0%. Net debt stands at $4.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $47.50 (bear case) to $139.60 (bull case); at $87.86, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 8%, CHDN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($103.10) versus Dividend Discount ($6.68). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Churchill Downs Incorporated operates live and historical racing entertainment venues, online wagering businesses, and regional casino gaming properties in the United States. It operates through three segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming.
Full company description
Churchill Downs Incorporated operates live and historical racing entertainment venues, online wagering businesses, and regional casino gaming properties in the United States. It operates through three segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming. The Live and Historical Racing segment engages in live and historical pari-mutuel racing related activities at Churchill Downs Racetrack and its historical racing properties in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire; provides racing event-related services, including admissions, personal seat licenses, sponsorships, television rights, and other miscellaneous services, as well as food and beverages services. The Wagering Services and Solutions engages in pari-mutuel wagers through TwinSpires, which operates the online horse racing wagering business for TwinSpires.com, BetAmerica.com, and other white-label platforms; facilitates dollar wagering; provides the Bloodstock Research Information Services platform for horse racing statistical data; offers streaming video of live horse races, replays, and an assortment of racing and handicapping information; and provides technology services to third parties. This segment also operates retail and online sports betting businesses, United Tote, which manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for racetracks, OTBs, and other pari-mutuel wagering businesses, and Exacta, which provides central determinant system technology in HRMs. The Gaming segment operates the casino properties and associated racetracks, which include slot machines, table games, video lottery terminals, video poker, HRMs, ancillary food and beverage services, hotel services, commission on pari-mutuel wagering, racing event-related services, and other miscellaneous operations. Churchill Downs Incorporated was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Churchill Downs Incorporated reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was $380M in FY2025, compounding +11.1%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Churchill Downs (CHDN) Stock Looks Well Below Fair Value Today
- Churchill Downs (CHDN) Could Be 38% Undervalued On New Racing Series Plans
- Is Churchill Downs (CHDN) Turning Its Derby Franchise Into a Year-Round Media Asset?
- Churchill Downs Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Gambling · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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