Ferrovial SE (FER) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ferrovial SE stock $23.09, price $55.29, that is 58.2% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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IndustrialsUS · Based in Netherlands · ISIN NL0015001FS8
FSBroad dataNov 1, 2026
Ferrovial SE
FER · US
Very expensive,in a downtrend
Our calculation puts a fair price 58% below what the stock costs today.
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +8.7 %/yr in EUR)
Generates free cash flow
1.0% dividend yield · Well covered
Broad data
Quality 57/100
Thin margins · 6.2% net margin (TTM)
Mixed vs. peers(6/15)
Moderate moat52/100
Profit last quarter 52% below a year ago.
Fair value $23.09 · Strongly overvalued (−58.2%)
High debt
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Rivals ACS, Acciona bid for US toll lanes🚩Spanish competition lawsuits in construction
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.08 – $73.66 · fair‑value band $15.95 – $28.87 · the $55.29 price screens above the $23.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Ferrovial N.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, construction, and operation of highways and airports in the United States, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, Canada, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Construction, Highways, Airports, and Energy.
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The company is involved in the development, financing, and operation of toll road infrastructure and construction activities, including the design and construction of public and private works; construction of public infrastructures; and development, financing, investing, and operation of airports.
It engages in the development and construction of energy transmission and renewable generation energy infrastructure, as well as rendering of services regarding energy efficiency; and operation of waste management plants. The company was founded in 1952 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Ferrovial SE (FER) currently trades at $55.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.09, 58.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $25.13 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $55.29 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.57, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $15.95 (bear) to $28.87 (bull), the price of $55.29 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ferrovial SE reported revenue of €9.6B in FY2025 versus €6.8B in FY2021, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was €888M in FY2025, compounding −7.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $39.8B Large · P/E ratio 30.4 · P/S ratio 2.80 · EPS (TTM) $1.82 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 9.2% · Return on equity 11.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −58%, FER screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$15.95Fair Value $23.09Bull$28.87
Price $55.29 · Downside -58.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.06 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.1% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+40.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+39.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 4.2% / 8.8%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 12%
2025 sits 95% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.1% a year for the price and +1.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: High gross margins and cash conversion indicate some durability, while the competitive sector and elevated debt to equity stand out as clear limitations.
Main risk: Named Spanish rivals such as ACS and Acciona could win future US managed lanes concessions away from Ferrovial or force lower bids that squeeze margins on new projects.
Bull case: Ferrovial could leverage its digital tools and AI agents in construction to win more complex US projects against rivals and improve operational efficiency on its toll assets.
Bear case: If rivals secure key US concessions or legal claims result in large payouts, Ferrovial's growth in managed lanes could slow and construction margins could remain under pressure for years.
Ferrovial plans to fund its equity commitment in the large I-24 project entirely from cash flows of its existing US express lanes rather than new capital raises. This leverages a proven portfolio for expansion into growing corridors but commits substantial resources over a long construction timeline where returns remain uncertain. Will the steady toll revenues comfortably absorb these outlays without limiting other options, or will the project scale create ongoing pressure on available cash?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 785 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−58.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.6% · Above median
Return on assets4.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)10.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.58× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)30.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B6.04× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.69× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow26.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA34.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG9.49× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)26· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)46· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)21· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)20· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ferrovial SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FER
Frequently asked questions
Is Ferrovial SE (FER) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.09 versus a price of $55.29, about 58% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FER?
Our model-based fair value for Ferrovial SE is $23.09 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $55.29.
What is the quality score of FER?
Ferrovial SE has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ferrovial SE (FER)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.09 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.95, optimistic scenario $28.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ferrovial SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.09, about 58% lower versus a price of $55.29 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.95, optimistic scenario $28.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ferrovial SE (FER)?
Ferrovial SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €9.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Ferrovial SE pay a dividend?
Ferrovial SE currently shows a dividend yield of 1.01% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ferrovial SE (FER)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ferrovial SE would have to grow free cash flow by +10.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FER use?
Our models discount Ferrovial SE at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ferrovial SE that is +10.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ferrovial SE (FER) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ferrovial SE grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies +10.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ferrovial SE (FER) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ferrovial SE (+10.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ferrovial SE (FER)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.88 %: that much free cash flow Ferrovial SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ferrovial SE (FER)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ferrovial SE it is $23.09 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $55.29. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ferrovial SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, FER trades above its calculated fair value: price $55.29, fair value $23.09, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FER?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($55.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.09). For Ferrovial SE the two are $32.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ferrovial SE worth?
The market values Ferrovial SE at about $39.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $55.29; our models calculate a fair value of $23.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FER?
Our models span a range for Ferrovial SE: cautious scenario $15.95, base $23.09, optimistic $28.87 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $55.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FER?
Ferrovial SE trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.4 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $23.09 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 52.2 (reported for FY2025: 40.1). Other multiples: PEG 9.5, P/B 6.0, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 34.1.
What is the PEG ratio of FER?
The PEG ratio of Ferrovial SE is 9.49 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ferrovial SE (FER)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ferrovial SE (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 11.6%, debt of 1.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FER from its 52-week high?
Ferrovial SE trades at $55.29, about 25% below its 52-week high of $73.66 and 13% above the low of $48.86 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ferrovial SE?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ferrovial SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $55.29, calculated fair value $23.09 (−58%), Quality Score 57/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FER calculated?
We run Ferrovial SE through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $23.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Ferrovial SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ferrovial SE (FER)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $55.29. Our model-based fair value is $23.09, about 58% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ferrovial SE right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($15.95 to $28.87) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Ferrovial SE (FER) come from?
Earnings per share at Ferrovial SE grew +13.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.4 %, EBIT margin +8.3 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ferrovial SE
How large is the market capitalisation of Ferrovial SE (FER)?
The market capitalisation of Ferrovial SE is $39.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ferrovial SE (FER)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ferrovial SE is 2.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ferrovial SE (FER)?
Earnings per share at Ferrovial SE are $1.82 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ferrovial SE (FER)?
The dividend yield of Ferrovial SE is 1.0% (payout 22.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 17.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ferrovial SE (FER)?
The net margin of Ferrovial SE is 9.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ferrovial SE (FER)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ferrovial SE is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ferrovial SE (FER)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ferrovial SE is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ferrovial SE (FER)?
The operating margin of Ferrovial SE is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ferrovial SE (FER)?
Revenue at Ferrovial SE is growing +5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ferrovial SE (FER)?
Earnings per share at Ferrovial SE are growing −52.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ferrovial SE (FER) carry?
The net debt of Ferrovial SE is €6.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026