Covivio (FNCDY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Covivio $14.08, price $14.67, upside -4.0%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range $8.41 – $17.03 · fair‑value band $14.08 – $22.86 · the $14.67 price screens above the $14.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Covivio invents the user experience of today and shapes the city of tomorrow. A real estate player preferably on a European scale, Covivio gets closer to end users, captures their aspirations, combines working, traveling, living, and co-sells living spaces.
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Covivio invents the user experience of today and shapes the city of tomorrow. A real estate player preferably on a European scale, Covivio gets closer to end users, captures their aspirations, combines working, traveling, living, and co-sells living spaces. Covivio, a leading European operator with 23.7 billion euros in assets, supports businesses and brands, hotels and territories in their challenges of attractiveness, transformation and responsible performance. Building well-being and lasting connections is Covivio's Raison d'être which expresses its role as as a responsible real estate operator towards all of its stakeholders: clients, shareholders and partners financiers, internal teams, communities, future generations. Furthermore, its lively approach to real estate opens its teams with exciting project prospects and career paths. Covivio was incorporated in 1963 in France.
Stock analysis
Covivio (FNCDY) currently trades at $14.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.08, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $23.56 per share, and 9 of the 16 models we run sit above the $14.67 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $4.04, and 7 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $14.08 (bear) to $22.86 (bull), the price of $14.67 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Covivio reported revenue of €1.4B in FY2025 versus €866M in FY2021, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was €739M in FY2025, compounding −5.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $7.5B · P/E ratio 7.6 · P/S ratio 4.04 · EPS (TTM) $1.92 · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin 52.9% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −4%, FNCDY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $14.08Fair Value $14.08Bull $22.86
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +8.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.4%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.76% → 60%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 85% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.4% a year for the price and −6.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Diversified · 153 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−8.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)64.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)72.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)6.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.01× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Covivio Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FNCDY
Frequently asked questions
Is Covivio (FNCDY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.08 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $14.67, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of FNCDY?
Our model-based fair value for Covivio is $14.08 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $14.67.
What is the quality score of FNCDY?
Covivio has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Covivio (FNCDY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.08 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.08, optimistic scenario $22.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Covivio stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.08, about −4% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $14.67 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $14.08, optimistic scenario $22.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Covivio (FNCDY)?
Covivio reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Covivio pay a dividend?
Covivio currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.43% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Covivio (FNCDY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Covivio would have to grow free cash flow by +26.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +12.7 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FNCDY use?
Our models discount Covivio at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.14, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Covivio that is +26.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Covivio (FNCDY) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Covivio grew +12.7 % a year. The price currently implies +26.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Covivio (FNCDY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Covivio (+26.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Covivio (FNCDY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.63 %: that much free cash flow Covivio produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Covivio (FNCDY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Covivio it is $14.08 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $14.67. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Covivio stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, FNCDY trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.67, fair value $14.08, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FNCDY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.08). For Covivio the two are $0.5900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Covivio worth?
The market values Covivio at about $7.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $14.67; our models calculate a fair value of $14.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FNCDY?
Our models span a range for Covivio: cautious scenario $14.08, base $14.08, optimistic $22.86 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $14.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FNCDY?
Covivio trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.6 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 5.8, EV/EBITDA 14.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Covivio (FNCDY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Covivio (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 1.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FNCDY from its 52-week high?
Covivio trades at $14.67, about 14% below its 52-week high of $17.03 and 1% above the low of $14.52 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Covivio?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Goodman Group, VICI Properties Inc, W. P. Carey Inc, Stockland, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Covivio stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $14.67, calculated fair value $14.08 (−4%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FNCDY calculated?
We run Covivio through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Covivio itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Covivio (FNCDY)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $14.67. Our model-based fair value is $14.08, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Covivio right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Covivio
How large is the market capitalisation of Covivio (FNCDY)?
The market capitalisation of Covivio is $7.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Covivio (FNCDY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Covivio is 4.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Covivio (FNCDY)?
Earnings per share at Covivio are $1.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Covivio (FNCDY)?
The dividend yield of Covivio is 6.4% (payout 49.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Covivio (FNCDY)?
The net margin of Covivio is 52.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Covivio (FNCDY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Covivio is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Covivio (FNCDY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Covivio is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Covivio (FNCDY)?
The operating margin of Covivio is 72.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Covivio (FNCDY)?
Revenue at Covivio is growing −4.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Covivio (FNCDY)?
Earnings per share at Covivio are growing +428% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Covivio (FNCDY) carry?
The net debt of Covivio is €9.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 39.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026