Forestar Group Inc (FOR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Forestar Group Inc stock $35.17, price $23.70, upside +48.4%, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.43 – $40.75 · fair‑value band $27.79 – $43.97 · the $23.70 price screens below the $35.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Forestar Group Inc. operates as a residential lot development company in the United States. It acquires land and develops infrastructure for single-family residential communities. The company sells its residential single-family finished lots to local, regional, and national homebuilders.
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Forestar Group Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Arlington, Texas. Forestar Group Inc. operates as a subsidiary of D.R. Horton, Inc.
Stock analysis
Forestar Group Inc (FOR) currently trades at $23.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.17, implying the stock looks roughly 33% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $51.57 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the $23.70 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $28.32, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $27.79 (bear) to $43.97 (bull), the price of $23.70 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Forestar Group Inc reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2026 versus $1.5B in FY2022, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was $143M in FY2026, compounding −5.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $1.2B Small · P/E ratio 8.5 · P/S ratio 0.74 · EPS (TTM) $2.78 · Net margin 8.7% · Return on equity 7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 11.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at 48%, FOR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$27.79Fair Value $35.17Bull$43.97
Price $23.70 · Upside +48.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 1 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2970 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $231,620 and none bought.
SaleLisa H. JamiesonDirector2× since Aug 18, 2026: 6,000 shares, avg. $27.01$162,060Nov 5, 2026
SaleElizabeth ParmerDirector2,535 shares at $27.44$69,560Jun 2, 2026
Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +23.5% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.4% vs 8.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 11%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 489 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+48.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.8% · Above median
Return on assets4.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)11.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−13.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Forestar Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FOR
Frequently asked questions
Is Forestar Group Inc (FOR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $35.17 versus a price of $23.70, about +48% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FOR?
Our model-based fair value for Forestar Group Inc is $35.17 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.70.
What is the quality score of FOR?
Forestar Group Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Forestar Group Inc (FOR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $35.17 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $27.79, optimistic scenario $43.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Forestar Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $35.17, about +48% upside versus a price of $23.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $27.79, optimistic scenario $43.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Forestar Group Inc (FOR)?
Forestar Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Forestar Group Inc (FOR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Forestar Group Inc it is $35.17 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $23.70. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 3 families (Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Forestar Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, FOR trades below its calculated fair value: price $23.70, fair value $35.17, a gap of about +48% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FOR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($35.17). For Forestar Group Inc the two are $11.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Forestar Group Inc worth?
The market values Forestar Group Inc at about $1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $23.70; our models calculate a fair value of $35.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FOR?
Our models span a range for Forestar Group Inc: cautious scenario $27.79, base $35.17, optimistic $43.97 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $23.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FOR?
Forestar Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $35.17 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 8.7. Other multiples: PEG 4.9, P/B 0.6, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 7.8.
What is the PEG ratio of FOR?
The PEG ratio of Forestar Group Inc is 4.90 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Forestar Group Inc (FOR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Forestar Group Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 7.8%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FOR from its 52-week high?
Forestar Group Inc trades at $23.70, about 26% below its 52-week high of $31.98 and 3% above the low of $23.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $35.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Forestar Group Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Forestar Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $23.70, calculated fair value $35.17 (+48%), Quality Score 47/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FOR calculated?
We run Forestar Group Inc through 6 models from 3 families: Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $35.17 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Forestar Group Inc currently trades 33% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Forestar Group Inc (FOR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $23.70. Our model-based fair value is $35.17, about +48% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Forestar Group Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (47/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($27.79). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Forestar Group Inc (FOR) come from?
Earnings per share at Forestar Group Inc grew +12.0 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +28.7 %, EBIT margin −16.2 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Forestar Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Forestar Group Inc (FOR)?
The market capitalisation of Forestar Group Inc is $1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Forestar Group Inc (FOR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Forestar Group Inc is 0.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Forestar Group Inc (FOR)?
Earnings per share at Forestar Group Inc are $2.78 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Forestar Group Inc (FOR)?
The net margin of Forestar Group Inc is 8.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Forestar Group Inc (FOR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Forestar Group Inc is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Forestar Group Inc (FOR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Forestar Group Inc is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Forestar Group Inc (FOR)?
The operating margin of Forestar Group Inc is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Forestar Group Inc (FOR)?
Revenue at Forestar Group Inc is growing −13.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Forestar Group Inc (FOR)?
Earnings per share at Forestar Group Inc are growing −32.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Forestar Group Inc (FOR) generate?
The free cash flow of Forestar Group Inc is −$200M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Forestar Group Inc (FOR) carry?
The net debt of Forestar Group Inc is $137M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 4, 2026