Forestar Group (FOR) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $1.5B
Forestar Group
FOR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price −0.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 89% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($41.97). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.43 – $40.75 · fair‑value band $41.97 – $69.95 · the $29.64 price screens below the $55.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
Forestar Group (FOR) currently trades at $29.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $55.96, implying the stock looks roughly 88.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Forestar Group generated revenue of $1.7B at a net margin of 9.8%. Revenue declined 3.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.7%. Net debt stands at $438M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $41.97 (bear case) to $69.95 (bull case); at $29.64, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 89%, FOR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($114.83) versus Asset-Based ($23.22). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Forestar Group Inc. operates as a residential lot development company in the United States. It acquires land and develops infrastructure for single-family residential communities. The company sells its residential single-family finished lots to local, regional, and national homebuilders. Forestar Group Inc.
Full company description
Forestar Group Inc. operates as a residential lot development company in the United States. It acquires land and develops infrastructure for single-family residential communities. The company sells its residential single-family finished lots to local, regional, and national homebuilders. Forestar Group Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Arlington, Texas. Forestar Group Inc. operates as a subsidiary of D.R. Horton, Inc.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Forestar Group reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was $168M in FY2025, compounding +11.1%/yr from FY2021.
Watch FOR: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Forestar Group Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- Forestar Group Inc. Announces Rise In Q3 Income
- D.R. Horton (DHI) Faces New Questions As Forestar Cash Burn Raises Land Pipeline Risk
Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 588 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹657.75 | ₹159.49 | -76% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,188 | ₹583.43 | -51% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,125 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY | ₹1,925 | ₹1,183 | -39% |
| Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP | ₹2,102 | ₹1,044 | -50% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 64.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +32% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI | 4,100 IDR | 6,239 IDR | +52% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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