Shift4 Payments, Inc (FOUR) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $3.9B
Shift4 Payments, Inc
FOUR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $31.50 to $29.18 (−7.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −13.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 29% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($39.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($19.13 to $39.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.47 – $125.66 · fair‑value band $19.13 – $39.38 · the $41.26 price screens above the $29.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Shift4 Payments, Inc (FOUR) currently trades at $41.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.18, implying the stock looks roughly 29.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shift4 Payments, Inc generated revenue of $4.5B at a net margin of 2.6%. Revenue grew 32.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.9%. Net debt stands at $3.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $19.13 (bear case) to $39.38 (bull case); at $41.26, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -29%, FOUR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($96.55) versus Dividend Discount ($5.72). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shift4 Payments, Inc. engages in the provision of software and payment processing solutions in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Shift4 Payments, Inc. engages in the provision of software and payment processing solutions in the United States and internationally. The company offers a payments platform, which provides omnichannel card acceptance; and processing solutions across multiple payment types, including credit, debit, contactless card, Europay, MasterCard and Visa, QR Pay, and mobile wallets, as well as alternative payment methods, such as Apple Pay, Google Pay, Alipay, and WeChat Pay. It also provides technology solutions, such as SkyTab POS, which provides purpose-built POS workstations; SkyTab Mobile, which provides pay-at-the-table, order-at-the-table, delivery, customer feedback, and email marketing solutions; SkyTab Venue, which provides mobile ordering, countertop POS, self-service kiosk, and digital wallet solutions; Lighthouse, a cloud-based suite of business intelligence tools that includes customer engagement, social media management, online reputation management, scheduling and product pricing, extensive reporting, and analytics; The Giving Block, a cryptocurrency donation marketplace; Shift4Shop, an e-commerce platform that creates a web store and tools to manage product catalog, order fulfillment and inventory management, search engine optimization, and secure hosting; and Marketplace, which enables integrations into third-party applications, as well as loyalty and inventory management. In addition, the company offers merchant operations and support services, including underwriting, onboarding, and activation; training; risk management; and support services. Further, it provides software partner operations and support services, including software integrations and compliance management; partner support; and partner services. The company distributes its products through independent software vendors, internal sales and support networks, enterprises, and value-added resellers. Shift4 Payments, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Center Valley, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shift4 Payments, Inc reported revenue of $4.2B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +32.2%/yr. Reported net income was $119M in FY2025.
FOUR screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Has Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Fallen Far Enough To Be A Bargain?
- How Shift4 powers the 'experience economy': CEO shares consumer insights
- Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Could Be 29% Undervalued As Lower 2026 Guidance Jolts Shares
- Why Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Is Down 19.3% After Mixed Q2 2026 Results And ESOP Share Filing
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 368 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
Compare Shift4 Payments, Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Technology stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Shift4 Payments, Inc (FOUR) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of FOUR?
What is the quality score of FOUR?
What is the revenue of Shift4 Payments, Inc (FOUR)?
What is the net profit margin of FOUR?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Shift4 Payments, Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.