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Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shift4 Payments Inc $63.92, price $38.46, upside +66.2%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · US · ISIN US82452J1097

SP Shift4 Payments Inc logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Shift4 Payments Inc

FOUR · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $63.92 · Strongly undervalued (+66%)
!Quality 48/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +40.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.6% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/15)
!Narrow moat 43/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 15 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$125.66 $30.47 Fair Value $63.92 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $30.47 – $125.66 · fair‑value band $37.22 – $83.09 · the $38.46 price screens below the $63.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Shift4 Payments, Inc. engages in the provision of software and payment processing solutions in the United States and internationally.

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Shift4 Payments, Inc. engages in the provision of software and payment processing solutions in the United States and internationally. The company offers a payments platform, which provides omnichannel card acceptance; and processing solutions across multiple payment types, including credit, debit, contactless card, Europay, MasterCard and Visa, QR Pay, and mobile wallets, as well as alternative payment methods, such as Apple Pay, Google Pay, Alipay, and WeChat Pay. It also provides technology solutions, such as SkyTab POS, which provides purpose-built POS workstations; SkyTab Mobile, which provides pay-at-the-table, order-at-the-table, delivery, customer feedback, and email marketing solutions; SkyTab Venue, which provides mobile ordering, countertop POS, self-service kiosk, and digital wallet solutions; Lighthouse, a cloud-based suite of business intelligence tools that includes customer engagement, social media management, online reputation management, scheduling and product pricing, extensive reporting, and analytics; The Giving Block, a cryptocurrency donation marketplace; Shift4Shop, an e-commerce platform that creates a web store and tools to manage product catalog, order fulfillment and inventory management, search engine optimization, and secure hosting; and Marketplace, which enables integrations into third-party applications, as well as loyalty and inventory management. In addition, the company offers merchant operations and support services, including underwriting, onboarding, and activation; training; risk management; and support services. Further, it provides software partner operations and support services, including software integrations and compliance management; partner support; and partner services. The company distributes its products through independent software vendors, internal sales and support networks, enterprises, and value-added resellers. Shift4 Payments, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Center Valley, Pennsylvania.

Stock analysis

Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR) currently trades at $38.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $63.92, implying the stock looks roughly 39.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $121.05 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the $38.46 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.18, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $37.22 (bear) to $83.09 (bull), the price of $38.46 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Shift4 Payments Inc reported revenue of $4.2B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +32.2%/yr. Reported net income was $119M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $3.9B · P/E ratio 45.3 · P/S ratio 1.29 · EPS (TTM) $0.8700 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 66%, FOUR screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $37.22 Fair Value $63.92 Bull $83.09
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6364 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $14.99 $16.04 $18.03 76
FCF DCF $87.91 $159.64 $383.31 73
Growth DCF $79.81 $192.59 $374.29 73
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $87.91 $159.64 $383.31 73
Owner Earnings $66.35 $201.80 $475.71 68
5Y Revenue Exit $24.82 $64.11 $145.34 66
5Y EBITDA Exit $65.39 $146.11 $304.23 70
5Y P/E Exit $10.42 $51.68 $103.28 64
10Y Revenue Exit $43.15 $121.05 $162.12 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $73.84 $206.41 $433.36 63
10Y P/E Exit $34.62 $90.74 $172.33 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $10.20 $71.14 $99.83 63
Lynch FV $33.63 $48.05 $62.46 61
PEG = 1.0 $33.63 $48.05 $62.46 57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $3.32 $6.62 $10.02 67
DDM Multi-Stage $3.32 $5.72 $6.99 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $23.63 $31.50 $39.38 63
P/S Multiple $19.13 $25.50 $31.88 58
P/B Multiple $19.13 $25.50 $31.88 55
EV/EBIT $11.39 $30.19 $49.00 61
EV/EBITDA $53.05 $85.74 $118.44 66
EV/Revenue n/a $12.49 $29.75 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $9.09 $12.18 $18.18 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $79.81 $192.59 $374.29 73
Rev-Margin DCF $30.32 $79.99 $182.62 66
Economic Profit
Residual Income $14.99 $16.04 $18.03 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $44.74 $63.92 $83.09 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 17
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 15
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+25.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8% → 8%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.0% a year for the price and +10.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+21.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+13.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+12.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+10.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+9.3%

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 372 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside +64% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 32% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.15× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 45.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.71× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.88× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 7.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 8.8× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.28× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 49
PAST (return on equity)40 · sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)15 · sector 32

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Block, Inc XYZ $77.53 $101.29 +31%
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Shift4 Payments Inc · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shift4 Payments Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FOUR

Frequently asked questions

Is Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $63.92 versus a price of $38.46, about +66% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FOUR?
Our model-based fair value for Shift4 Payments Inc is $63.92 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $38.46.
What is the quality score of FOUR?
Shift4 Payments Inc has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $63.92 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $37.22, optimistic scenario $83.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shift4 Payments Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $63.92, about +66% upside versus a price of $38.46 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $37.22, optimistic scenario $83.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
Shift4 Payments Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Shift4 Payments Inc pay a dividend?
Shift4 Payments Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.77% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shift4 Payments Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +5.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +40.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FOUR use?
Our models discount Shift4 Payments Inc at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.42, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shift4 Payments Inc that is +5.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shift4 Payments Inc grew +40.4 % a year. The price currently implies +5.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shift4 Payments Inc (+5.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.59 %: that much free cash flow Shift4 Payments Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shift4 Payments Inc it is $63.92 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $38.46. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shift4 Payments Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, FOUR trades below its calculated fair value: price $38.46, fair value $63.92, a gap of about +66% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FOUR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($38.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($63.92). For Shift4 Payments Inc the two are $25.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shift4 Payments Inc worth?
The market values Shift4 Payments Inc at about $3.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $38.46; our models calculate a fair value of $63.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FOUR?
Our models span a range for Shift4 Payments Inc: cautious scenario $37.22, base $63.92, optimistic $83.09 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $38.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FOUR?
Shift4 Payments Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $63.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 2.7, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 8.8.
What is the PEG ratio of FOUR?
The PEG ratio of Shift4 Payments Inc is 0.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shift4 Payments Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 9.9%, debt of 3.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FOUR from its 52-week high?
Shift4 Payments Inc trades at $38.46, about 65% below its 52-week high of $108.50 and 11% above the low of $34.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $63.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shift4 Payments Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shift4 Payments Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $38.46, calculated fair value $63.92 (+66%), Quality Score 48/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FOUR calculated?
We run Shift4 Payments Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $63.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shift4 Payments Inc currently trades 66 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $38.46. Our model-based fair value is $63.92, about +66% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shift4 Payments Inc right now?
Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($37.22 to $83.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Shift4 Payments Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
The market capitalisation of Shift4 Payments Inc is $3.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shift4 Payments Inc is 1.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
Earnings per share at Shift4 Payments Inc are $0.8700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
The dividend yield of Shift4 Payments Inc is 0.8% (payout 34.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
The net margin of Shift4 Payments Inc is 2.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shift4 Payments Inc is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shift4 Payments Inc is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
The operating margin of Shift4 Payments Inc is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
Revenue at Shift4 Payments Inc is growing +32.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR)?
Earnings per share at Shift4 Payments Inc are growing −72.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR) carry?
The net debt of Shift4 Payments Inc is $3.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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