Freja eID Group AB (FREJA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Freja eID Group AB stock SEK 3.19, price SEK 18.00, upside -82.3%, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?No
Quality 50+?No
In an uptrend?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 3.45 – kr 24.40 · fair‑value band kr 2.20 – kr 4.34 · the kr 18.00 price screens above the kr 3.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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Freja eID Group AB (publ) develops products and services for digital identification in Sweden and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Freja elD and Fulfillment.
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It offers Freja eID, a digital wallet that contains, among other things, a government-approved ID, a mobile ID card for physical identification and mobile payment features and data sharing with consent.
The company also provides private eID platforms that consist of online and physical identification, electronic signatures, onboarding, and user engagement; and CheckID overview, life cycle management, card, and shared devices.
In addition, it offers fulfilment services that consist of secure services, mainly related to the entire life cycle of secure log-in equipment for internet banks, such as security tokens, logistics, inventory, order management, packaging, production and distribution via multiple carriers, including registered mail, returns, and secure, and sustainable electronics waste handling services; and PIN code management.
The company was formerly known as Verisec AB (publ) and changed its name to Freja eID Group AB (publ) in November 2020. Freja eID Group AB (publ) was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Upplands Väsby, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Freja eID Group AB (FREJA) currently trades at kr 18.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 3.19, 82.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of kr 3.77 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the kr 18.00 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at kr 0.8500, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 2.20 (bear) to kr 4.34 (bull), the price of kr 18.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Freja eID Group AB reported revenue of 51.1M SEK in FY2025 versus 20.6M SEK in FY2021, a compound +25.4%/yr. Reported net income was −15.3M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 514M SEK (≈ $51.9M) Micro · P/S ratio 8.89 · EPS (TTM) kr −0.4900 · Net margin −22.3% · Return on equity −60.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −42.8% · Operating margin −12.7% · Revenue (TTM) 58.0M SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −82%, FREJA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 2.20Fair Value kr 3.19Bullkr 4.34
Price kr 18.00 · Upside -82.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFkr 2.75kr 3.96kr 5.6281
Growth DCFkr 2.72kr 3.77kr 5.1179
5Y EBITDA Exitkr 1.71kr 2.15kr 2.6477
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFkr 2.75kr 3.96kr 5.6281
5Y Revenue Exitkr 2.62kr 3.98kr 5.7872
5Y EBITDA Exitkr 1.71kr 2.15kr 2.6477
10Y Revenue Exitkr 2.59kr 3.75kr 5.4567
10Y EBITDA Exitkr 2.14kr 2.65kr 3.2970
Multiples
EV/EBITDAkr 0.6700kr 0.8500kr 1.0267
EV/Revenuekr 2.27kr 3.18kr 4.1054
Growth DCF
Growth DCFkr 2.72kr 3.77kr 5.1179
Rev-Margin DCFkr 2.62kr 3.97kr 5.6872
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−202.0% (2020) → −28.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+45.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +42.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 344 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−82.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−22.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−22.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−12.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)32.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/B23.37× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)8.86× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow76.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 28
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Freja eID Group AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FREJA
Frequently asked questions
Is Freja eID Group AB (FREJA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 3.19 versus a price of kr 18.00, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FREJA?
Our model-based fair value for Freja eID Group AB is kr 3.19 (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 18.00.
What is the quality score of FREJA?
Freja eID Group AB has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Freja eID Group AB (FREJA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 3.19 (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 2.20, optimistic scenario kr 4.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Freja eID Group AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 3.19, about −82% upside versus a price of kr 18.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 2.20, optimistic scenario kr 4.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Freja eID Group AB (FREJA)?
Freja eID Group AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 58.0M SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Freja eID Group AB (FREJA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Freja eID Group AB would have to grow free cash flow by +45.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.5 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FREJA use?
Our models discount Freja eID Group AB at 13.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.16, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Freja eID Group AB that is +45.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Freja eID Group AB (FREJA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Freja eID Group AB grew +18.5 % a year. The price currently implies +45.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Freja eID Group AB (FREJA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Freja eID Group AB (+45.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Freja eID Group AB (FREJA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.30 %: that much free cash flow Freja eID Group AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Freja eID Group AB (FREJA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Freja eID Group AB it is kr 3.19 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of kr 18.00. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Freja eID Group AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, FREJA trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 18.00, fair value kr 3.19, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FREJA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 18.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 3.19). For Freja eID Group AB the two are kr 14.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Freja eID Group AB worth?
The market values Freja eID Group AB at about 514M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is kr 18.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 3.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FREJA?
Our models span a range for Freja eID Group AB: cautious scenario kr 2.20, base kr 3.19, optimistic kr 4.34 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price kr 18.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Freja eID Group AB (FREJA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Freja eID Group AB (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity −60.7%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FREJA from its 52-week high?
Freja eID Group AB trades at kr 18.00, about 26% below its 52-week high of kr 24.40 and 28% above the low of kr 14.10 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 3.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Freja eID Group AB?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Freja eID Group AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price kr 18.00, calculated fair value kr 3.19 (−82%), Quality Score 43/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FREJA calculated?
We run Freja eID Group AB through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 3.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Freja eID Group AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Freja eID Group AB (FREJA)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was kr 18.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 3.19, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Freja eID Group AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 4.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (kr 2.20 to kr 4.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Freja eID Group AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Freja eID Group AB (FREJA)?
The market capitalisation of Freja eID Group AB is 514M SEK (≈ $51.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Freja eID Group AB (FREJA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Freja eID Group AB is 8.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Freja eID Group AB (FREJA)?
Earnings per share at Freja eID Group AB are kr −0.4900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Freja eID Group AB (FREJA)?
The net margin of Freja eID Group AB is −22.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Freja eID Group AB (FREJA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Freja eID Group AB is −60.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Freja eID Group AB (FREJA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Freja eID Group AB is −42.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Freja eID Group AB (FREJA)?
The operating margin of Freja eID Group AB is −12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Freja eID Group AB (FREJA)?
Revenue at Freja eID Group AB is growing +32.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Freja eID Group AB (FREJA) hold?
Freja eID Group AB holds more cash than debt, 4.0M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 28, 2026